April 2015 Update Presented by Dan Goldberg Thursday April 9 th 2015 Description of model used CAMx v610 12 km OTC model domain Date range May 26 August 31 2011 10 days spinup ID: 342120
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OTC Modeling Committee April 2015 Update
Presented by: Dan GoldbergThursday April 9th, 2015Slide2
Description of model used:
CAMx v6.10 (12 km OTC model domain)Date range: May 26 – August 31, 2011 10 days spin-upCB05 Gas-phase chemistry (transitioning to CB6r2)
Anthropogenic Emissions: Baseline 2011 & 2018 NEI v1 from EPA
Biogenic Emissions: BEIS v3.14 from EPA
Meteorology: WRF 2011 CONUS 12 km from EPABoundary conditions: GEOS-Chem 2011 from EPASensitivity studies with: CB6 & CB6r2 gas-phase chemistry, MEGAN v2.10 biogenic emissions and MOZART-4 boundary conditions
Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to useSlide3
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Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to useSlide4
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Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to useSlide5
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Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to useSlide6
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Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to useSlide7
Sector-by-Sector AnalysisJuly 1 through July 8, 2011 only (so far)
Will conduct the same analysis for 2018CAMx OSAT is working as coded to do, but perhaps some caveats in the results
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Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to useSlide8
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Peaks in “Biogenic” ozone are near city centers and areas with low boundary layers
Air masses near city centers are NOx-saturated in the model, which attributes O
3
to biogenic VOCsNote peak in the Chesapeake Bay and coastal areas downwind of NYC“Biogenic” ozone in rural areas is 6 – 8 ppb, this value is likely closer to reality
Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to useSlide9
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Peaks in “Mobile” ozone are near city centers and interstatesValues are highest in North Carolina, lowest in CanadaChicago & NYC do not show up, perhaps due to unfavorable meteorology during early July 2011
Values are likely overestimated due to Anderson et al., 2014
Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to useSlide10
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Peaks in “EGU” ozone are focused in the Ohio River Valley
Values are 6 – 10 ppbv in the Ohio River Valley, lower elsewhere
Values are likely underestimated due to Anderson et al., 2014 & Canty et al., 2015
Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to useSlide11
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Peaks in
o
zone attributed to everywhere else are focused over the Great Lakes & Atlantic Ocean
Still trying to determine the cause of this…Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to useSlide12
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Peak in biogenic O3 at this time is probably due to O
3
being formed in a VOC-limited environment due to NO
x
saturation because the the PBL is still low
Unsure why this portion is so large, perhaps also due to O
3
being formed in a VOC-limited environment over the bay (which would be attributed to anthropogenic VOCs, not isoprene
)Slide13
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Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to useSlide14
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Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to useSlide15
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Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to useSlide16
O
3 Attributed to a VOC-limited environment in mid-afternoon July 2011 (Baseline)
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Some areas have > 50% VOC-limited O
3
, is this really the case???
Observations show NO
x
reductions are reducing O
3
(Salawitch, Loughner)Slide17
O
3 Attributed to a VOC-limited environment in mid-afternoon July 2011 (Beta)
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Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to use
“Beta” work shows a much lower % of VOC-limited O
3
Beta Run:
- CB6r2
- MEGANv2.1
- 50% mobile NO
x
emissionsSlide18
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New Beta simulation attributes 30 – 40% more ozone to EGUs than the baseline simulation; emissions of EGUs remain the same in each simulation.
The increase in attribution to EGUs is due to changing gas-phase chemistry and the nonlinearities associated with changing the biogenic & mobile emissions
Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to useSlide19
ConclusionsCan develop state-by-state source apportionment plots for any source receptor location in the eastern U.S.
Boundary ozone consistently plays a large role in all locationsSector-by-sector source apportionment is working as coded, but several caveats so farUMD Beta work should improve this
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Preliminary work by Dan Goldberg, University of Maryland, please contact prior to use