Samuel Seskin Transportation Consultant - PowerPoint Presentation

Samuel SeskinTransportation Consultant Transportation project evaluation and priority-setting: the Mosaic analytic tool Urban Sustainability Accelerator

You should use two, complementary measures of value to make your decisions.Adequate methods and data exist; the challenge is when to use them, so that...information will inform but not dictate decisions. Here is the story:2

Introduction to Oregon MosaicDeveloped by the Oregon Department of Transportation Based on methods used over many yearsStrong foundation in state of the practice performance measuresFully web-accessible at www.oregonmosaic.org3

Mosaic supports a central step in the planning process

Overall Goals of Using Mosaic Inform decision makers about the mix and kinds of value associated with transportation investments and expenditures Identify the most cost effective solutions given the community’s goals

Part 1: How to measure value subjectively

Do engineers use all the right measures?7

Do planners have all the answers?8

Is stakeholder engagement easy?9

Is anything missing from political decisions?10

We agree on the goals (probably)…11

…but not their importance12 1 MOBILITY % 2 ACCESSIBILITY % 3 ECONOMIC VITALITY % 4 ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP % 5 FUNDING THE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM / FINANCE % 6 SAFETY & SECURITY % 7 LAND USE & GROWTH MANAGEMENT % 8 QUALITY OF LIFE % 9 EQUITY %

The Weighting ProcessWeighting is done by stakeholdersStakeholders can reach agreement on how to “spend” 100 points among the categories 13

Try this:Imagine you were buying a car. How much weight would you put, in advance, on price as a factor in your decision, versus color? 14

Now consider this:15 $17,000 $17,100 Does the fact that the difference in price is very small change how much weight you give that indicator in your final decision?

Weighted scores (Oregon Test Case)16

Supports learning, not debating Encourages discussion and exploration of value and valuesDecisions are more transparent and defensible.Results inform but do not dictate decisions.Value-informed decision making: 17

Confess your valuesDo this several times—when you are starting the evaluation process, and then again after you get the results.Stakeholders should debate values with fellow stakeholders.Test them against the data, to see the effect of the importance you put on them, on the overall outcome or decision.. Often, they matter less than you think. Value-informed decision making: Summary 18

QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION

Part 2: How to measure value in dollars

We agree on the goals (probably)…21

Two ways of measuring value: Value informed by stakeholders Value in dollars 22

Why measure value in dollars?Because they are scarce.Because they enable us to compare value more easily than using doughnuts. (Do you value chocolate cream more than glazed? glazed more than frosted?)23

Illustrative indicators measured in dollarsMO.1 - Travel TimeMO.3 - Reliability (Recurring congestion)MO.4 - Reliability (Non-recurring congestion)MO.5 - User CostsEV.2 - Changes in transportation costs by industry (business travel and freight)EV.4 - Changes in productivity from increased connectivity ES.1 - Criteria Air ContaminantsES.4 - Life-cycle CO2e FT.1 - Capital CostsFT.2 - Other Lifecycle CostsFT.3 - Total RevenueSA.1 - Fatal, Injury A, and Injury B Crashes QL.1 - Lives saved due to active transportation QL.2 - Reduced incidence of diseases due to active transportation QL.3 - Quality of the travel environment QL.4 - Noise Impacts 25

Indicators of livability and quality of life26

Indicators of economic vitality27

Sources of Benefit/Cost Ratio (Oregon Test Case)28

It can be done! Acknowledge a range of monetary values. Test the effects of using different values on the results. USA is the only English-speaking wealthy country, and one of the few wealthy countries, where BCA is not a routine part of transportation decision making. Measuring value in dollars: Summary29

Use the best available information within the constraints of time and money.When you are in the swamp, apply insect repellent.Measuring value in dollars: Summary 30

QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION

Part 3: How to compare the two measures of value

This was a test…33

Comparison of stated value to $benefit-cost ratio(Oregon Test Case)34

Value trade-offs35

Best Practice Example: Metropolitan Transportation Commission36

Best Practice Example: Metropolitan Transportation Commission37

Best Practice Example: Metropolitan Transportation Commission38

Best Practice Example: Metropolitan Transportation Commission39

Best Practice Example: Metropolitan Transportation Commission40

Five myths about value-based analysis: These methods will constrain political imperatives.These methods will work against (or work for) my constituency’s interests.These methods add time and needless complexity to decision making.The methods aren’t ready for “prime time”.Some things just can't be measured, or certainly not measured well; these methods reduce everything to numbers.41

It can be done! It offers a way forward for stakeholders of all persuasions. It does not dictate decisions. It supports learning and reduces the need for debating.The case for using two measures of value 42

What’s useful about this approach?It offers a more comprehensive set of information to decision makers.It can be applied to scenarios, projects, systems or asset classes.It doesn’t change who makes decisions; it better informs the decisions.43

The methods and data exist; the challenge is how and when to use them, because technical staff (internal stakeholders) are often the biggest source of resistance.Like value engineering, the information enables exploration of tradeoffs between projects as well as project features.Remind yourselves and your elected officials that no matter what they fear, you know that politics always trump analytics. What have we learned from applications to date?44

QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION

THANK YOUSam Seskinsseskin@Comcast.net

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IT’S NOT ABOUT THE MEASURES.IT’S ABOUT HOW YOU USE THEM.ADDITIONAL SLIDES

Ways to Improve Decision makingOpen the black box. Provide adequate documentationPeer-review the tool.Make the tool stakeholder-friendly. Strong graphics Real-time learning opportunitiesMake the methods scalable.Acknowledge uncertainty.49

Ways to Improve Decision making6. Measure value in multiple ways.7. Unbundle the components of value. 8. Specify measurement methods clearly to minimize “advocacy”.9. “Open in Safe Mode”.10. Use it to shoot the injured animals first.50

Bundle: Roadway/CapacityIncludes:Sunrise corridor, Phase 2I-205 through lanesMilwaukie expressway grade separationUrban upgrades on ~12 miles of street (add center turn lane, intersection improvements)51

Bundle: TransitIncludes:Bus rapid transit line on I-205Light rail extension to Oregon CityService improvementsIncrease frequency Several new routesDecrease transit fares by 50%52

Bundle: Active Transportation/ProgramsIncludes: 37 miles of new sidewalk13 miles of multi-use trail35 miles of bike facilitiesHOV lane conversion on I-205ProgramsParking pricing, marketing, outreach, educationTransit fare reductionSystem management Ridesharing 53

Comparison of stated value to measured $benefits (Oregon Test Case)Graphic displays results of pilot test. Results are illustrative54

Sources of Monetized Benefits – Active Transportation/Programs (Test Case)55

Measuring benefits in dollars (Oregon Test Case)56

Sources of Benefit/Cost Ratio (Oregon Test Case)57

Comparison of stated value to measured $costs (Oregon Test Case)Graphic displays results of pilot test. Results are illustrative58

Best Practice Example: Metropolitan Transportation Commission59