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1 Hurricane Forecast Model 1 Hurricane Forecast Model

1 Hurricane Forecast Model - PowerPoint Presentation

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1 Hurricane Forecast Model - PPT Presentation

Enron Email Corpus LCDR Matt Tabar LCDR William Evans Outline History of ENRON Email Corpus Makeup and Generation Assumptions Graph construction Timeseries analysis 5 BLUF Divided the network into time periods ID: 636663

lay enron kaymal graph enron lay graph kaymal cordell burton koffi skilling cipperley fleischmann whelan 2001 construction treml young

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Slide1

1Slide2
Slide3

Hurricane Forecast

ModelSlide4

Enron Email Corpus

LCDR Matt

Tabar

LCDR William EvansSlide5

Outline

History of ENRON

Email Corpus

Makeup and Generation

Assumptions

Graph construction

Time-series analysis

5Slide6

BLUF

Divided the network into time periods

Examined the communication between 7 executives

Compared the strength of the communications by max-flow interdiction (four ways)

6Slide7

ENRON Brief History

1932 - Northern

Natural Gas Company,

OK

1979

-

Reorganized as InterNorth 1985

Bought Houston Natural GasMoved to Houston, changed name to ENRONLied, cheated, swindledSept. 9, 2001 - Scandal breaks out

Dec. 1, 2001 - Filed for bankruptcy 7Slide8

How bad was it?

ENRON –

CalPERS

venture

Joint Energy Development Investments – JEDI

Set up

Chewco Investments Ltd. to buy itENRON has a positive bottom line

8Slide9

The (really) bottom line

9Slide10

Cast of Characters – The 7

Kenneth.Lay@Enron.com

Chairman, CEO

Jeffrey.Skilling@Enron.com

Pres., COO, CEO

Andrew.Fastow@Enron.com

CFO

Richard.Causey@Enron.com CAOGreg.Whalley@Enron.com Pres., COO

Jeffrey.McMahon@Enron.com CFORaymond.Bowen@Enron.com CFO

10Slide11

Time Breakdown

CEO

COO

CFO

CAO

Block

Year

Lay

Lay

Lay

1

2

3

4

5

6

1999

2000

2001

2002

B

11Slide12

Time Breakdown

CEO

COO

CFO

CAO

Block

Year

Lay

Skilling

Skilling

Lay

Lay

1

2

3

4

5

6

1999

2000

2001

2002

B

12Slide13

Time Breakdown

CEO

COO

CFO

CAO

Block

Year

Lay

Skilling

Fastow

Skilling

Lay

Lay

1

2

3

4

5

6

1999

2000

2001

2002

B

13Slide14

Time Breakdown

CEO

COO

CFO

CAO

Block

Year

Lay

Skilling

Fastow

Causey

Skilling

Lay

Lay

1

2

3

4

5

6

1999

2000

2001

2002

B

14Slide15

Time Breakdown

CEO

COO

CFO

CAO

Block

Year

Lay

Skilling

Fastow

Causey

Skilling

Lay

Lay

Whalley

1

2

3

4

5

6

1999

2000

2001

2002

B

15Slide16

Time Breakdown

CEO

COO

CFO

CAO

Block

Year

Lay

Skilling

Fastow

Causey

Skilling

Lay

Lay

Whalley

McMahon

1

2

3

4

5

6

1999

2000

2001

2002

B

16Slide17

Time Breakdown

CEO

COO

CFO

CAO

Block

Year

Lay

Skilling

Fastow

Causey

Skilling

Lay

Lay

Whalley

McMahon

Bowen

1

2

3

4

5

6

1999

2000

2001

2002

B

17Slide18

Corpus Makeup

490,209 Emails

18Slide19

Corpus Makeup

490,209 Emails

76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external

)

19Slide20

Corpus Makeup

490,209 Emails

76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)

19,479 Unique From: addresses

20Slide21

Corpus Makeup

490,209 Emails

76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)

19,479 Unique From: addresses

5,703 Unique internal addresses

21Slide22

Corpus Makeup

490,209 Emails

76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)

19,479 Unique From: addresses

5,703 Unique internal addresses

150 Employee’s email folders

22Slide23

Corpus Makeup

Message-ID: <3513531.1075852348029.JavaMail.evans@thyme>

Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 17:39:14 -0700 (PDT)

From:

pr

<

.palmer@enron.com

>

To: kenneth.lay@enron.com

, greg.whalley@enron.com, j..kean@enron.com, mark.koenig@enron.com, paula.rieker@enron.com, karen.denne@enron.com

Subject: Reuters story on Dynegy 3Q earnings

We'll get pointed questions related to Europe and broadband thanks to Steve Bergstrom. Suggest we answer that we feel confident that the first mover advantage will give us superior returns in the long run.

Message-ID: <29382990.1075852344558.JavaMail.evans@thyme>

Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2001 09:13:59 -0700 (PDT)From: karen.denne@enron.com

To: j..kean@enron.com, pr <.palmer@enron.com>, mark.koenig@enron.com,

jeffrey.mcmahon@enron.com, rex.rogers@enron.com, ben.glisan@enron.com

, tim.despain@enron.com, ken.lay-@enron.com

Cc: karen.denne@enron.com, m..schmidt@enron.com

Bcc: karen.denne@enron.com, m..schmidt@enron.comSubject: Saturday Articles

Enron taps credit line; stock slides

Message-ID: <10795837.1075852348240.JavaMail.evans@thyme>

Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 02:06:41 -0700 (PDT)

From: john.sherriff@enron.com

To: ken.lay-.chairman.of.the.board@enron.com

Cc: mark.frevert@enron.com, greg.whalley@enron.com, london.brown@enron.com, eric.shaw@enron.com, lloyd.wantschek@enron.com,

john.sherriff@enron.comSubject: Turkish industrialist Nuri

Coalkoglu

KenI understand a Turkish industrialist named

Nuri ?olakoglu

has been in contact with you through Bill Miller and possibly Jerry Giest.

Colakoglu is an extremely wealthy and well regarded Turkish industrialist who has aggressively expanded into the Turkish energy sector.

23Slide24

Assumptions

Strength of relationship based on email

Not all email is created equal

There are additional interesting people

Likely missing emails

24Slide25

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Schramm

Ramert

Young

Kaymal-1

Dunham

Burton

Kaymal-2

25Slide26

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Schramm

Ramert

Young

Kaymal-1

Dunham

Burton

Kaymal-2

26Slide27

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Schramm

Ramert

Young

Kaymal

Dunham

Burton

27Slide28

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Schramm

Ramert

Young

Kaymal

Dunham

Burton

28Slide29

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Schramm

Ramert

Young

Kaymal

Dunham

Burton

29Slide30

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Schramm

Ramert

Young

Kaymal

Dunham

Burton

30Slide31

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Young

Kaymal

Dunham

Burton

31Slide32

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Young

Kaymal

Dunham

Burton

32Slide33

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Young

Kaymal

Burton

33Slide34

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Young

Kaymal

Burton

34Slide35

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Kaymal

Burton

35Slide36

1999

2000

2001 Jan-Jun

2001 Jul-Sep

2001 Oct-Dec

2002

Graph Construction

36Slide37

Period Distribution

37Slide38

Graph Analysis

Koffi

Cordell

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Kaymal

Burton

38Slide39

Graph Analysis

Koffi

Whelan

Fleischmann

Kaymal

Cipperley

Cordell

Burton

39Slide40

Graph Analysis

Koffi

Cordell

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Kaymal

Burton

40Slide41

Graph Analysis

Koffi

Cordell

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Kaymal

Burton

41Slide42

42Slide43

43Slide44

44Slide45

45Slide46

46Slide47

47Slide48

48Slide49

Greg.Whalley

@Enron.com

49Slide50

Kenneth.Lay

@Enron.com

50Slide51

Jeffrey.Skilling

@Enron.com

51Slide52

Richard.Causey@Enron.com

52Slide53

Jeffrey.McMahon

@Enron.com

53Slide54

Raymond.Bowen

@Enron.com

54Slide55

Andrew.Fastow@Enron.com

55Slide56

56Slide57

JEDI Graph

Whalley

Lay

Skilling

Causey

Fastow

McMahon

Bowen

57Slide58

Conclusions

You too can analyze a social network

Ned has a large server available

Payoff for pre-GAMS data normalizing

Nothing deterministic / legally defensible

Good starting point for follow-on investigation

Good indicator of missing informationTrifecta: Lay, Skilling, and

Fastow58Slide59
Slide60

Koffi

Cordell

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Kaymal

Burton

60