PPT-1 Hurricane Forecast Model

Enron Email Corpus LCDR Matt Tabar LCDR William Evans Outline History of ENRON Email Corpus Makeup and Generation Assumptions Graph construction Timeseries analysis 5 BLUF Divided the network into time periods. Chem. /. EnKF. Jianyu(Richard) Liang. Yongsheng. Chen. 6th . EnKF. Workshop. York University. . +. METEOSAT-7/GOES-11 combined Dry Air/SAL Product (source: University of Wisconsin-CIMSS). 00Z25. th. Friday 09 Jan 2014. Finish Overview Presentation. Current Weather Discussion. Begin Review Material. GOES-12 IR satellite image, 0615 UTC 19 August 2009. GOES-12 IR satellite image of Hurricane Bill at 0615 UTC 19 August 2009. Forecast Track Error. Rule of Thumb for . Forecast Track Errors:. 24 hours .  40 nm. 48 hours  70 nm. 72 hours  100 nm. Today’s 3-Day Forecast. i. s as good as a 1-Day. Forecast in 1990.. Intensity Error. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC. CIMSS/University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI. james.kossin@noaa.gov. 65. th. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. 3 March 2011. Miami, FL. A New Secondary Eyewall Formation Index; . DAY 3 Winners Redux = SPC DAY 4 - Forecast Verification time! ? Perfect Forecast The Dr. Titley residence (one block from campus) 82 Y 9 82 Y 9 3.5 3.5 DAY 4 Winners Let’s talk about those temps …. Intensity Forecasting. Mark . DeMaria. NOAA/NESDIS/. StAR. , Fort Collins, CO. CoRP. Science Symposium. Fort Collins, CO. August 2010. Outline. Overview of tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. Charlie Neumann (1987) methodology. NOAA . HFIP. Lead. 19 August 2011. HFIP Advancements in Hurricane Research. The Good – Track forecast improvements. Errors cut in half over past 15 . years. 10-year improvement - As accurate at 48h as we were at 24h in 2000. -1- Hurricane Nora 1-9 October 2003 Lixion. A. Avila National Hurricane Center 4 November 2003 a.Synoptic History Nora developed from a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on 13 Septe ENTERTROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTHURRICANE KIKOEP132019September2019David ANational Hurricane Center 10 January 2020 SUOMI NPP/VIIRS NIGHTTIME IMAGE OF HURRICANE KIKO AT 0942 UTC 15 SHurricane Kiko 2 H David Simmons: Global Head of Research Publications, Aon Benfield. New York – 30. th. January 2009. 1. Caribbean Catastrophe Risk and Insurance Fund (CCRIF). 2. Hurricane Dean. 3. Example of TSR hurricane Dean forecast . Frank . Revitte. National Weather Service. Weather Forecast Office. New Orleans/Baton Rouge. “This is just a CAT 1 hurricane”. “It has never flooded here before”. “I’ve been through Katrina and Gustav, this is nothing”. . Frank . Revitte. National Weather Service. Weather Forecast Office. New Orleans/Baton Rouge. 2017 Seasonal Recap. Above normal activity. 17 Total Named Storms. 7. Tropical Storms. 4. Hurricanes . Mark DeMaria. National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL. GFDL Hurricane Science Symposium. May 2, 2017. 1. Outline. 2. 1954-1975 – . Barotropic. and statistical track . forecast model era. Fred . Toepfer. . March . 4, 2015. HFIP at the 5 Year Point. 2. HFIP Motivation. Decrease Evacuations. Increase . forecast . accuracy, . especially . at longer lead . times. especially . during periods of rapid intensity changes; .