Enron Email Corpus LCDR Matt Tabar LCDR William Evans Outline History of ENRON Email Corpus Makeup and Generation Assumptions Graph construction Timeseries analysis 5 BLUF Divided the network into time periods ID: 636663
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Slide1
1Slide2Slide3
Hurricane Forecast
ModelSlide4
Enron Email Corpus
LCDR Matt
Tabar
LCDR William EvansSlide5
Outline
History of ENRON
Email Corpus
Makeup and Generation
Assumptions
Graph construction
Time-series analysis
5Slide6
BLUF
Divided the network into time periods
Examined the communication between 7 executives
Compared the strength of the communications by max-flow interdiction (four ways)
6Slide7
ENRON Brief History
1932 - Northern
Natural Gas Company,
OK
1979
-
Reorganized as InterNorth 1985
Bought Houston Natural GasMoved to Houston, changed name to ENRONLied, cheated, swindledSept. 9, 2001 - Scandal breaks out
Dec. 1, 2001 - Filed for bankruptcy 7Slide8
How bad was it?
ENRON –
CalPERS
venture
Joint Energy Development Investments – JEDI
Set up
Chewco Investments Ltd. to buy itENRON has a positive bottom line
8Slide9
The (really) bottom line
9Slide10
Cast of Characters – The 7
Kenneth.Lay@Enron.com
Chairman, CEO
Jeffrey.Skilling@Enron.com
Pres., COO, CEO
Andrew.Fastow@Enron.com
CFO
Richard.Causey@Enron.com CAOGreg.Whalley@Enron.com Pres., COO
Jeffrey.McMahon@Enron.com CFORaymond.Bowen@Enron.com CFO
10Slide11
Time Breakdown
CEO
COO
CFO
CAO
Block
Year
Lay
Lay
Lay
1
2
3
4
5
6
1999
2000
2001
2002
B
11Slide12
Time Breakdown
CEO
COO
CFO
CAO
Block
Year
Lay
Skilling
Skilling
Lay
Lay
1
2
3
4
5
6
1999
2000
2001
2002
B
12Slide13
Time Breakdown
CEO
COO
CFO
CAO
Block
Year
Lay
Skilling
Fastow
Skilling
Lay
Lay
1
2
3
4
5
6
1999
2000
2001
2002
B
13Slide14
Time Breakdown
CEO
COO
CFO
CAO
Block
Year
Lay
Skilling
Fastow
Causey
Skilling
Lay
Lay
1
2
3
4
5
6
1999
2000
2001
2002
B
14Slide15
Time Breakdown
CEO
COO
CFO
CAO
Block
Year
Lay
Skilling
Fastow
Causey
Skilling
Lay
Lay
Whalley
1
2
3
4
5
6
1999
2000
2001
2002
B
15Slide16
Time Breakdown
CEO
COO
CFO
CAO
Block
Year
Lay
Skilling
Fastow
Causey
Skilling
Lay
Lay
Whalley
McMahon
1
2
3
4
5
6
1999
2000
2001
2002
B
16Slide17
Time Breakdown
CEO
COO
CFO
CAO
Block
Year
Lay
Skilling
Fastow
Causey
Skilling
Lay
Lay
Whalley
McMahon
Bowen
1
2
3
4
5
6
1999
2000
2001
2002
B
17Slide18
Corpus Makeup
490,209 Emails
18Slide19
Corpus Makeup
490,209 Emails
76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external
)
19Slide20
Corpus Makeup
490,209 Emails
76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)
19,479 Unique From: addresses
20Slide21
Corpus Makeup
490,209 Emails
76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)
19,479 Unique From: addresses
5,703 Unique internal addresses
21Slide22
Corpus Makeup
490,209 Emails
76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)
19,479 Unique From: addresses
5,703 Unique internal addresses
150 Employee’s email folders
22Slide23
Corpus Makeup
Message-ID: <3513531.1075852348029.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 17:39:14 -0700 (PDT)
From:
pr
<
.palmer@enron.com
>
To: kenneth.lay@enron.com
, greg.whalley@enron.com, j..kean@enron.com, mark.koenig@enron.com, paula.rieker@enron.com, karen.denne@enron.com
Subject: Reuters story on Dynegy 3Q earnings
We'll get pointed questions related to Europe and broadband thanks to Steve Bergstrom. Suggest we answer that we feel confident that the first mover advantage will give us superior returns in the long run.
Message-ID: <29382990.1075852344558.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2001 09:13:59 -0700 (PDT)From: karen.denne@enron.com
To: j..kean@enron.com, pr <.palmer@enron.com>, mark.koenig@enron.com,
jeffrey.mcmahon@enron.com, rex.rogers@enron.com, ben.glisan@enron.com
, tim.despain@enron.com, ken.lay-@enron.com
Cc: karen.denne@enron.com, m..schmidt@enron.com
Bcc: karen.denne@enron.com, m..schmidt@enron.comSubject: Saturday Articles
Enron taps credit line; stock slides
Message-ID: <10795837.1075852348240.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 02:06:41 -0700 (PDT)
From: john.sherriff@enron.com
To: ken.lay-.chairman.of.the.board@enron.com
Cc: mark.frevert@enron.com, greg.whalley@enron.com, london.brown@enron.com, eric.shaw@enron.com, lloyd.wantschek@enron.com,
john.sherriff@enron.comSubject: Turkish industrialist Nuri
Coalkoglu
KenI understand a Turkish industrialist named
Nuri ?olakoglu
has been in contact with you through Bill Miller and possibly Jerry Giest.
Colakoglu is an extremely wealthy and well regarded Turkish industrialist who has aggressively expanded into the Turkish energy sector.
23Slide24
Assumptions
Strength of relationship based on email
Not all email is created equal
There are additional interesting people
Likely missing emails
24Slide25
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Schramm
Ramert
Young
Kaymal-1
Dunham
Burton
Kaymal-2
25Slide26
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Schramm
Ramert
Young
Kaymal-1
Dunham
Burton
Kaymal-2
26Slide27
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Schramm
Ramert
Young
Kaymal
Dunham
Burton
27Slide28
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Schramm
Ramert
Young
Kaymal
Dunham
Burton
28Slide29
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Schramm
Ramert
Young
Kaymal
Dunham
Burton
29Slide30
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Schramm
Ramert
Young
Kaymal
Dunham
Burton
30Slide31
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Young
Kaymal
Dunham
Burton
31Slide32
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Young
Kaymal
Dunham
Burton
32Slide33
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Young
Kaymal
Burton
33Slide34
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Young
Kaymal
Burton
34Slide35
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Kaymal
Burton
35Slide36
1999
2000
2001 Jan-Jun
2001 Jul-Sep
2001 Oct-Dec
2002
Graph Construction
36Slide37
Period Distribution
37Slide38
Graph Analysis
Koffi
Cordell
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Kaymal
Burton
38Slide39
Graph Analysis
Koffi
Whelan
Fleischmann
Kaymal
Cipperley
Cordell
Burton
39Slide40
Graph Analysis
Koffi
Cordell
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Kaymal
Burton
40Slide41
Graph Analysis
Koffi
Cordell
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Kaymal
Burton
41Slide42
42Slide43
43Slide44
44Slide45
45Slide46
46Slide47
47Slide48
48Slide49
Greg.Whalley
@Enron.com
49Slide50
Kenneth.Lay
@Enron.com
50Slide51
Jeffrey.Skilling
@Enron.com
51Slide52
Richard.Causey@Enron.com
52Slide53
Jeffrey.McMahon
@Enron.com
53Slide54
Raymond.Bowen
@Enron.com
54Slide55
Andrew.Fastow@Enron.com
55Slide56
56Slide57
JEDI Graph
Whalley
Lay
Skilling
Causey
Fastow
McMahon
Bowen
57Slide58
Conclusions
You too can analyze a social network
Ned has a large server available
Payoff for pre-GAMS data normalizing
Nothing deterministic / legally defensible
Good starting point for follow-on investigation
Good indicator of missing informationTrifecta: Lay, Skilling, and
Fastow58Slide59Slide60
Koffi
Cordell
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Kaymal
Burton
60