PPT-Evolution of Hurricane Track and Intensity Guidance at the National Hurricane Center

Mark DeMaria National Hurricane Center Miami FL GFDL Hurricane Science Symposium May 2 2017 1 Outline 2 19541975 Barotropic and statistical track forecast model era. Developed over the course of sev eral years in consultation with emergency managers broadcast meteorologists and others this new map will show eographical areas where inundation from storm surge could occur How high above ground the water could reac Chris Landsea National Hurricane Center. March 2010. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. How does NHC analyze and forecast hurricanes?. How do the forecasters blend the various (surface . obs. ENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT HURRICANE ARTHUR (AL 01 2014 ) – 5 July 201 4 National Hurricane CenterAprilEAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE OF H Hurricane Arthur Hurricane Arthur5 JULY 2014SYNOP Jonathan Vigh. NCAR Earth Systems Laboratory &. Advanced Study Program. Research Review. 10:00 AM 27 May 2010 FL1-2033 . NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. Hurricane Katrina . Group-meeting @ 20131212. The track of PSU . EnKF. system. 2003, Snyder & Zhang, 1. st. time . EnKF. radar (OSSE); . 294 cites;. 2004, Zhang et al., relaxing method in . EnKF. . . 216 . cites;. Compare & contrast an idealized hurricane life cycle with a real life example from the past. Understand how the angle of approach of a storm impacts regional damage. Objectives. Hurricane Structure. Compare & contrast an idealized hurricane life cycle with a real life example from the past. Understand how the angle of approach of a storm impacts regional damage. Objectives. Hurricane Structure. 24 ENTERTROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTHURRICANE KIKOEP132019September2019David ANational Hurricane Center 10 January 2020 SUOMI NPP/VIIRS NIGHTTIME IMAGE OF HURRICANE KIKO AT 0942 UTC 15 SHurricane Kiko 2 H 2223 May 2021 3 August 2021 NASA/TERRA MODERATE RESOLUTION IMAGING SPECTRORADIOMETER MODIS IMAGERY OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA AT 1507 UTC 22 MAY 2021 IMAGE COURTESY OF NASA EOSDIS WORLDVIEW Ana origina Outline. What is the water cycle?. How do thunderstorms form?. How do hurricanes form?. What is the structure of a hurricane?. How strong can the winds get in a hurricane?. What kind of damage can a hurricane cause?. Why Should You Care? Forecasting Much progress in social science of response to warnings, requests to evacuate, etc. Forecasters are ambassadors to meteorology Opportunity to inform public Knowledge o Discover Your World With NOAA Follow That Hurricane! Startled man ready to run after a hurricane driven wave smashes into seawall Historic NWS Collection. Courtesy NOAA. Follow That Hurricane! “D 2007 Forecast Verification. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. 3 March 2008. James L. Franklin. NHC/TPC. Summary: Atlantic Track. OFCL track errors set records for accuracy from 36-96 . h. . Errors continue their downward trends, although skill has been flat for several years..