PPT-Evolution of Hurricane Track and Intensity Guidance at the National Hurricane Center

Mark DeMaria National Hurricane Center Miami FL GFDL Hurricane Science Symposium May 2 2017 1 Outline 2 19541975 Barotropic and statistical track forecast model era. Chris Landsea National Hurricane Center. March 2010. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. How does NHC analyze and forecast hurricanes?. How do the forecasters blend the various (surface . obs. Forecast Track Error. Rule of Thumb for . Forecast Track Errors:. 24 hours .  40 nm. 48 hours  70 nm. 72 hours  100 nm. Today’s 3-Day Forecast. i. s as good as a 1-Day. Forecast in 1990.. Intensity Error. Jennifer DeHart and Robert Houze. HS3 Science . Meeting. NASA Ames. May. . 6, 201. 5. NASA grants: NNX13AG71G / NNX12AJ82G. Science Question. How does the vertical structure of . precipitation . in Hurricane . Group-meeting @ 20131212. The track of PSU . EnKF. system. 2003, Snyder & Zhang, 1. st. time . EnKF. radar (OSSE); . 294 cites;. 2004, Zhang et al., relaxing method in . EnKF. . . 216 . cites;. From Hurricane Betsy to Hurricane Katrina to Hurricane ?? 2 Flood Control Act of 1928 What happened in 1927? What are the immunity provisions? Flood Control Act of 1928, 33 U. S. C. §702c -- which states that "[n]o liability of any kind shall attach to or rest upon the United States for any damage from or by floods or flood waters at any place" Brandon Kerns*, . Shuyi. S. Chen, . Chiaying. Lee, and . Falko. . Judt. RSMAS/University of Miami. I. nterdepartmental . H. urricane . C. onference Miami, Florida 28 February – 3 March 2011 . Compare & contrast an idealized hurricane life cycle with a real life example from the past. Understand how the angle of approach of a storm impacts regional damage. Objectives. Hurricane Structure. 2 surface temperatures steadily took its toll on Jova and the cyclone rapidly weakened to a tropical storm late on 22 September about 350 n mi east-northeast of Hilo. Jova became a tropical depressio ENTERTROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTHURRICANE KIKOEP132019September2019David ANational Hurricane Center 10 January 2020 SUOMI NPP/VIIRS NIGHTTIME IMAGE OF HURRICANE KIKO AT 0942 UTC 15 SHurricane Kiko 2 H 2223 May 2021 3 August 2021 NASA/TERRA MODERATE RESOLUTION IMAGING SPECTRORADIOMETER MODIS IMAGERY OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA AT 1507 UTC 22 MAY 2021 IMAGE COURTESY OF NASA EOSDIS WORLDVIEW Ana origina Why Should You Care? Forecasting Much progress in social science of response to warnings, requests to evacuate, etc. Forecasters are ambassadors to meteorology Opportunity to inform public Knowledge o Kerry Emanuel. Lorenz Center, MIT. . Motivations. Most current TC risk models are based on statistical algorithms for generating synthetic tracks and associated wind fields. . Statistical . T. 2007 Forecast Verification. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. 3 March 2008. James L. Franklin. NHC/TPC. Summary: Atlantic Track. OFCL track errors set records for accuracy from 36-96 . h. . Errors continue their downward trends, although skill has been flat for several years.. CIMSS/University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI. james.kossin@noaa.gov. 65. th. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. 3 March 2011. Miami, FL. A New Secondary Eyewall Formation Index; . Transition to Operations and Quantification of Associated Hurricane Intensity and Structure Changes.