PPT-A Simple, Fast Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm for Risk Models

Kerry Emanuel Lorenz Center MIT Motivations Most current TC risk models are based on statistical algorithms for generating synthetic tracks and associated wind fields Statistical T. Satellite cl oud imageries are used along with other meteorological features to estimate t he intensities and the wind speed associated with these intense systems The satellite cl oud configurations expressed by T numbers have unique relati onship w 3D Structure. Let’s Talk Genesis!. Review. Nolan, . Rappin. , and . Emanuel 2007; . Khairoutdinov. . and Emanuel 2013; . Zhuo. , Held, and Garner 2014. : TC genesis can occur on f-plane . without. Co-PI’s:. Wayne Schubert. 1. Mark DeMaria. 2. Buck Sampson. 3. Jim Cummings. 4. Team Members:. John Knaff. 2. Brian McNoldy. 5. Kate Musgrave. 6. Chris Slocum. 1. Rick Taft. 1. Scott Fulton. 7. Andrea Schumacher. Objective Methods for Tropical Cyclone Center . Fixing and Eye Detection. Robert DeMaria. 1. , . John Knaff. 2. ,. . John . Dostalek. 1. , . and . Galina Chirokova. 1 . (1) CIRA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, . Ethan Wright: UNC Asheville. Research Advisor: . Dr. Christopher . Hennon. 04/22/2015. Peak Intensity: 190 mph. Lowest Pressure: 870 . mb. Small eye size of 8 nm . Super Typhoon Tip (1979). Super Typhoon Winnie (1997). Intensity Forecasting. Mark . DeMaria. NOAA/NESDIS/. StAR. , Fort Collins, CO. CoRP. Science Symposium. Fort Collins, CO. August 2010. Outline. Overview of tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. Charlie Neumann (1987) methodology. Paul A. Kucera. , Barb G. Brown, . Christopher L. . Williams, and Louisa Nance. NCAR/Research Applications . Laboratory. 69. th. Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. Jacksonville, FL. 03 March 2015. Suzana J. Camargo,. Mingfang. Ting and . Yochanan. . Kushnir. LDEO, Columbia University. GloDecH. Meeting, OCP, LDEO, December 14, 2011.. Atlantic PDI . (power dissipation index ~. . V. 3. max. ) . 1 Hurricane Neki ( CP032009) 18 - 27 October 2009 Derek Wroe Central Pacific Hurricane Center 5 February 2010 Neki was the final tropical cyclone and only category three hurricane within the Centr 2 surface temperatures steadily took its toll on Jova and the cyclone rapidly weakened to a tropical storm late on 22 September about 350 n mi east-northeast of Hilo. Jova became a tropical depressio 2223 May 2021 3 August 2021 NASA/TERRA MODERATE RESOLUTION IMAGING SPECTRORADIOMETER MODIS IMAGERY OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA AT 1507 UTC 22 MAY 2021 IMAGE COURTESY OF NASA EOSDIS WORLDVIEW Ana origina Kerry Emanuel. Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Storm Max Power Dissipation. (Smoothed with a 1-3-4-3-1 filter). Past, Present, and Future Tropical Cyclone Activity Jacob Carstens 1 , Christopher Uejio 2 , and Allison Wing 1 1 Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallaha Kerry . Emanuel and Sai Ravela. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Risk Assessment Methods. Methods based on hurricane history. Numerical Simulations. Downscaling Approaches. Issues with Historically Based Risk Assessment.