James Reeves MA BA Hons Senior Technical Director Economics and Finance IMC Worldwide Introduction Graduated with MA Transport Economics 1989 26 years in consultancy 2 years in UK Local Authority ID: 660298
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Transport Economics in Small (Island) States
James ReevesMA BA HonsSenior Technical Director, Economics and FinanceIMC WorldwideSlide2
Introduction
Graduated with MA Transport Economics 198926 years in consultancy, 2 years in UK Local AuthorityWorked in 43 countriesRoads, rail, aviation, ports and shipping, urban transportEconomic appraisal, national transport planning, infrastructure financingSlide3
Worked in 43 countriesSlide4
IMC Worldwide
120 staffCurrently working in 25+ countriesCan trace history back directly to 1968Core is engineering, institutional strengthening, economics and financeAlso environment, social studies, monitoring and evaluation, trade, urban development
www.imcworldwide.com/jobs/Slide5
IMC Economics and Finance
8 peopleCurrent projects – Philippines, Egypt, Dominica, Serbia, Belarus, Caribbean Region, Swaziland, Kenya, NepalPPP Transaction Advisory, Climate Change Adaptation, Public Investment Management, Road Sector Reform, National Development Planning, Programme EvaluationSlide6
Niue National Transport StrategySlide7
Niue National Transport Strategy
ToRDevelop a new National Transport StrategyDevelop a 3 year National Transport Sector Action PlanIdentify opportunities for revenue generation
Support applications to the Green Climate Fund for key Infrastructure
Stakeholder consultation and presentationsSlide8
Transport Strategy Objectives
Effectiveness Efficiency Resilience
ensuring
that the transport system meets the needs of Niue and supports social and economic development programmes
improving
the way services are planned and delivered
ensuring
that revenue generated within the transport sector, stays within the transport sector
making
Niue’s transport infrastructure resilient to the impacts of climate change and disasters
maximising
reliability and minimising losses due to the transport
systemSlide9
Cyclone Heta, Niue, 2004Slide10
Aviation
Airport recognised as critical assetRetaining ICAO license is crucialMaintenance issues paramountNeed to improve passenger experienceTry to attract more services from different placesSlide11
Maritime
Wharf recognised as Niue’s most critical assetNeed to protect the wharf from climate changeWharf crucial for ship operations
Major maintenance
planned on sea walls
Wharf needs to
have more space
and
operate 24/7 Slide12
Roads
Roads provide the key linkages between villagesMix of coastal ring and cross island roadsSome key links not sealedSlide13
Key Objectives
Providing effective planning and implementation of maintenance programmes for key assetsEnsuring effective budgeting for operational and maintenance activitiesEnsuring that the transport system supports the achievement of the NNSPIncorporating climate change adaptation and disaster risk mitigation into all plans
Ensuring that transport infrastructure can meet the requirements of Niue’s international treaties and statutory obligations
Minimising the carbon footprint of the transport system and wherever possible incorporating low carbon technologies.Slide14
Elements of the Strategy
No sweeping changes to service deliveryContinue to review the role of the private sector in deliveryAdopt the user pays principle across the sectorRecognise critical assetsEnsure improved asset maintenance
Build the human resource within the
sector
Responding to climate change is paramount
Providing more resilience to climate change and disasters is the focus of all policy
Transport strategy includes aviation, maritime, roads and major plant
Legal, institutional and financial issues are
consideredSlide15
Niue National Transport Strategy
Prioritisation FrameworkSlide16
Niue National Transport Strategy
What happens next?Strategy and Action Plan have been approved by ParliamentFunding for key schemes needs to be agreedApplication to GCF for feasibility studiesPurchase new equipment using the Niue Trust Fund
Finalise agreements for NZ and China for key schemesSlide17
Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, DominicaSlide18
Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica
Terms of ReferenceComplete condition, hazard and risk assessmentsIdentify interventions to increase resilienceComplete economic appraisal of investment options
Undertake stakeholder consultation
Complete environmental and social safeguards studiesSlide19
Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica
Why is this road important?It serves a population of over 5,000It is the only link to major settlements along the south coastAround 3 km of the road is alongside the sea
The road was badly damaged by tropical storm Erica in 2015
It serves the brewery!Slide20
Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica
Elements of the ProjectRepair the road surfaceInstall river training worksReplace inadequate bridges
Stabilise landslide areas
Install new coastal protection measures
Improve road safety features
Reinstate previous downside failures
Install rock netsSlide21
Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, DominicaSlide22
Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica
Measurement of Economic BenefitsBenefits of improved road surface (reduced roughness, shorter journey times)Reduced damage to infrastructureReduced costs of dislocation
Reduced likelihood of dislocation
Likely reduced length of dislocation
Reduces need for emergency response
Reduced need for relocation of peopleSlide23
Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica
Costs of dislocation8 hour closureDelays to trips3 day closure
Delays to trips, loss of income
10 day closure
Delays to trips, loss of income, costs of emergency provisions
20 day closure
Delays to trips, loss of income, costs of emergency provisions, costs of emergency transport and accommodationSlide24
Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, DominicaSlide25
Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica
What Happens Next(What should have happened)Approval of recommended option (Q3 2017)
Detailed design
(Q4 2017 – Q2 2018)
Construction
(Q3 2018 – Q4 2019)
After Hurricane Maria
(What is now likely to happen)
After
cleanup
and emergency works
Revisit feasibility study
Produce new/revised recommendationsSlide26
Key Questions
Can we make everything resilient, economically?How do we value the benefits of reducing the effects of climate change and disasters?Small (island) states face a common set of problems. What are the potential solutions, when you don’t have enough people, enough money, or enough resource?