Ahti Salo Aalto SCI ahtisaloaaltofi 30 th Anniversary of the Systems Analysis Laboratoy You cant connect the dots looking forward you can only connect them looking backwards ID: 420446
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Slide1
Understanding Systems of the Future
Ahti Salo, Aalto SCI
ahti.salo@aalto.fi
30
th
Anniversary of the Systems Analysis LaboratoySlide2
“You
can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only
connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. .. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.”Steve JobsSlide3
“
To the wisest and most careful men of our greatest institutions of
science and learning I have gone … asking each to forecast what will have been wrought a century from now.” “The prophesies will seem strange, almost impossible … yet they have come from the most learned and conservative minds in America.”Slide4
“Wireless telephone and telegraph circuits will span the world.”Slide5
“Photographs will be telegraphed from any distance …
photographs will reproduce all of nature’s colors”Slide6
“Grand opera will be telephoned to private homes and will sound as
harmonious as though enjoyed from a theatre box”Slide7
“Air-ships
… will not successfully compete with surface land and
water vessels for passanger or freight traffic”Slide8
“
Every
river or creek with any suitable fall will be equipped with water-motors, turning dynamos, making electricity”Slide9
“Mosquitoes, house-flies and roaches will have been exterminated”
DDTSlide10
In hindsight
Statements postulated as optimistic visions
Many were strikingly accurate (mobile phones)Technological discontinuities largely missed (fission, transistors, DNA, …) Errors in judging the economic viability of technologies (aviation)Some aspirations offend our values (killing all insects)Slide11
Where Do We Stand Now?Slide12
Many systems are becoming ever more interconnected and volatile
Kimmo Soramäki, Financial Network AnalysisSlide13
We are able to collect and analyze absolutely huge volumes of dataSlide14
We still live in a world where economic and political disruptions occurSlide15
In this changing world, models provide
the
universal language for capturing the essence of dynamic systemsSlide16
Models allow us to combíne data, expert judgements and value statements …Slide17
… and thus help us choose actions for achieving our objectivesSlide18
In fact, models have become so pervasive that they may go unnoticedSlide19
But at the other end of the spectrum, they inform far-reaching decisions that impact the lives of our children and grandchildren
Tommi Ekholm, VTTSlide20
There are exciting opportunities for those who
possess advanced modelling skills
have an open questioning mindwish to mark their contribution by making changes for the betterSlide21Slide22
“
Education is the passport to the future, for tomorrow belongs to
those who prepare for it today.”Malcolm XSlide23Slide24
Acknowledgements
- http://en.wikimedia.org
- http://commons.wikimedia.org- https://www.flickr.com/groups/freeuse/ - www.google.com (for images with permissions for non-commercial reproduction) Thank you !