changing dynamics Paul Bowles Professor of Economics and International Studies University of Northern British Columbia Presentation to Group of 78 Ottawa September 28 2013 High levels of wage inequality ID: 629957
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Labour and Wages in China:changing dynamics
Paul BowlesProfessor of Economics and International StudiesUniversity of Northern British ColumbiaPresentation to Group of 78Ottawa, September 28, 2013Slide2
High levels of wage inequality
Little protection for workersNo independent Trade Unions or autonomous labour organizationsToxic combination of state and marketSlide3
Labour and China’s growth path
High investment, low share of private consumptionState sector layoffs (xiagang)Growth of private sector and quasi-private sectorsMigrant workers, gender, and rural-urban mobilityFacilitated by local governments in sending and receiving locationsSlide4
Lewisian labour surplus transfer as key component of growth
East Asian authoritarian developmental stateSlide5
Changing dynamics
Market-ledEnd of the labour surplus and rising wages in coastal areasTechnological up-grading in coastal areasFirms migrating inland
State-led
The leadership’s
Polanyian
dilemma
The new
Labour
Contract Law 2008
Legal channels and dispute resolution
Local cadre advancement and public order
Changing treatment of migrant workersSlide6
Worker-led
Strikes and suicidesSecond-generation migrant workersRepresentation through ACFTUSlide7
A new development path?
Domestic demand/wage-led growthImprecise conceptObjective through at least past three FYPsNo sign of success; why?Economic obstacles: propensities and elasticities in key relationshipsPolitical obstacles: state-industry-finance nexus Slide8
What should Canada do?
Neither hectoring on nor ignoring labour rightsDialogue, bargaining and demonstration effectsDialogue: government and TUs? And businesses in CanadaBargaining: What does China want?Slide9
Demonstration effects
Domestic demand/wage led growth? Export-led in Germany, finance-led in U.S.? Austerity? International architecture reformCore labour standards and tradeWTO, TPPBilateral agreements (e.g. Colombia)Labour-friendly trade agreements