Making a Deal with the Devil in Order to Do God’s Bidding - PowerPoint Presentation

Making a Deal with the Devil in Order to Do God’s Bidding
Making a Deal with the Devil in Order to Do God’s Bidding

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Christopher D Raymond Lecturer in Politics Queens University Belfast CRaymondqubacuk Vote for Trump Source ANES 2016 did Evangelicals religious Protestants vote for Trump in 2016 ID: 588709 Download Presentation

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Slide1

Making a Deal with the Devil in Order to Do God’s Bidding: Evangelicals, the 2016 Election, and Beyond

Christopher D. Raymond

Lecturer in Politics

Queen’s University Belfast

C.Raymond@qub.ac.ukSlide2

% Vote for Trump

Source: ANES 2016Slide3

…did Evangelicals (religious Protestants) vote for Trump in 2016?

…did Trump work so hard to court religious Protestants?

Why?Slide4

Demographic threatDeclining share of the population

Cannot enact policy on their own

No credible threat of supporting Democrats

Had to put their faith in Trump

Room for hope in the MAGA coalition

Restoration of traditional values(?)

From the Voter’s PerspectiveSlide5

Changing Religious DemographySlide6

Protestant and Non-Religious Shares of the Population over TimeSource: General Social Surveys, 1972-2016Slide7

Evangelical and Non-Religious Shares of the Electorate over Time, 1996-2016Source: Exit polls conducted in each electionSlide8

Evangelicals crucial for GOP

Committed core essential in 2000, 2004

No chance of converting DemocratsNeeded to make up for Trump’s deficits

Fit into MAGA coalition

Help expand the map?

Trump needed Evangelicals

From Trump’s ViewSlide9

The Marginal Effect of Evangelical Populations on State-Level Vote Shares for Trump in 2016, Conditional on Population DensitySlide10

Changing Effects of Evangelical Populations on Republican Presidential Candidates’ State-Level Vote Shares over TimeSlide11

State

Effect

State

Effect

Arizona

0.30

New Hampshire

0.08

Colorado

0.33

New Mexico

0.60

Florida

-0.14

North Carolina

0.01

Georgia

0.04

Ohio

-0.07

Iowa0.32Pennsylvania-0.07Maine*0.38Texas0.17Michigan0.04Virginia-0.00Minnesota0.27Wisconsin0.16Nevada0.50

Simulated Effects of the Evangelical Variable in Marginal States (States Trump Won or Loss by <10%)

Italics = Trump Won; Underlined = 90% Sig.Slide12

Evangelicals needed TrumpCan’t influence the agenda absent Trump

Trump needed Evangelicals

Helped flip, hold states in 2016

Sets up 2020 battleground map

Predictions:

Evangelicals remain loyal to Trump in 2020

Trump delivers on campaign promises

Concluding ThoughtsSlide13

Thank youSlide14

Shom More....