Presentation on theme: "Making a Deal with the Devil in Order to Do God’s Bidding"— Presentation transcript
Slide1
Making a Deal with the Devil in Order to Do God’s Bidding: Evangelicals, the 2016 Election, and Beyond
Christopher D. Raymond
Lecturer in Politics
Queen’s University Belfast
C.Raymond@qub.ac.ukSlide2
% Vote for Trump
Source: ANES 2016Slide3
…did Evangelicals (religious Protestants) vote for Trump in 2016?
…did Trump work so hard to court religious Protestants?
Why?Slide4
Demographic threatDeclining share of the population
Cannot enact policy on their own
No credible threat of supporting Democrats
Had to put their faith in Trump
Room for hope in the MAGA coalition
Restoration of traditional values(?)
From the Voter’s PerspectiveSlide5
Changing Religious DemographySlide6
Protestant and Non-Religious Shares of the Population over TimeSource: General Social Surveys, 1972-2016Slide7
Evangelical and Non-Religious Shares of the Electorate over Time, 1996-2016Source: Exit polls conducted in each electionSlide8
Evangelicals crucial for GOP
Committed core essential in 2000, 2004
No chance of converting DemocratsNeeded to make up for Trump’s deficits
Fit into MAGA coalition
Help expand the map?
Trump needed Evangelicals
From Trump’s ViewSlide9
The Marginal Effect of Evangelical Populations on State-Level Vote Shares for Trump in 2016, Conditional on Population DensitySlide10
Changing Effects of Evangelical Populations on Republican Presidential Candidates’ State-Level Vote Shares over TimeSlide11
State
Effect
State
Effect
Arizona
0.30
New Hampshire
0.08
Colorado
0.33
New Mexico
0.60
Florida
-0.14
North Carolina
0.01
Georgia
0.04
Ohio
-0.07
Iowa0.32Pennsylvania-0.07Maine*0.38Texas0.17Michigan0.04Virginia-0.00Minnesota0.27Wisconsin0.16Nevada0.50
Simulated Effects of the Evangelical Variable in Marginal States (States Trump Won or Loss by <10%)
Italics = Trump Won; Underlined = 90% Sig.Slide12
Evangelicals needed TrumpCan’t influence the agenda absent Trump
Trump needed Evangelicals
Helped flip, hold states in 2016
Sets up 2020 battleground map
Predictions:
Evangelicals remain loyal to Trump in 2020
Trump delivers on campaign promises
Concluding ThoughtsSlide13
Thank youSlide14
