Robert Hilton - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Robert Hilton

10/06/2015

Clean Coal- What is the Future

Washington, D.C.

National Academy of EngineeringSlide2

Is There Such A Thing As Clean Coal

Clean Coal

T

echnology Exists

We can clean all pollutants from Coal down to detection limits

SOx, NOx, PM, Mercury- even new Ozone NAAQS

The Zero Emission Coal Power Plant Exists

There are three key barrier issues to deployment

Economics

Policy

Financing Technology Demonstration

The Future of Coal lies with these issuesSlide3

Coal Preparation

Coal preparation is under pressure from economics and environment

None of these processes can meet the levels of pollutant removal without additional technology at the power plant site

More than 90% of these plants are located in Eastern states

In the last year, approximately 25% of the plants in WV have shuttered

DOE ceased spending R&D funds on these technologies in 2000-2001Slide4

Coal in Power

Source: Vattenfall

Pre-combustion

(New only)

Pre-combustion

Pre-combustion

(Integrated Gasification

Combined Cycle

- IGCC) is based on gasification which converts a

fossil fuel into

synthesis

gas composed of CO and

hydrogen. Following shift conversion

(CO+H

2

O -> CO

2+H2), the resulting H2 product is burned in a gas turbine.

Post-combustion

Oxy-combustion

(New + retrofit)

(New + retrofit)

Oxy-combustion

Fuel is burned in a mixture of oxygen and re-circulated flue gas

. Due

to the absence of Nitrogen, the resulting flue gas is

rich in CO2. After water condensing and further purification, CO2 is compressed and sent for storage or re-use.

Post-combustion

Chemical absorption of CO

2

(advanced amines and chilled ammonia).

Flue gas is contacted with a chemical solvent which reacts with the CO

2

or is captured by physical process. Raising the temperatures reverses the above reaction – releasing CO2 and allowing the solvent to be recycledSlide5

Post Combustion Capture

Numerous Technologies exist and many in development

Largest in service unit is 110 MW net with less than 6 months in operation

Cost of over $700mm for capture portion- $ 1.4 billion total

One unit under construction at 225 MW

Based on incorporating EOR at $80/Bbl.

A number of <30 Mw pilots and demos

All receive substantial governmental subsidy

Issues

Lacks regulatory driver for existing plants- new only

To date shown to be very expensive- needs field development

Cannot compete with unabated natural gas

Renewables enjoy subsidies (ITC/PTC) and mandates (RES/RPC)Slide6

OXY-Combustion

Oxy-Combustion

Conventional technology but burns with oxygen not air

Two major projects

FutureGen 2.0 – 160 MW- failed to reach financial close and lost subsidies- project terminated

White Rose – 462 Mw- still in development in the UK - working to financial close- start projected in 2020

Complex first of a kind technologies

Chemical Looping

The Future- commercial in late 2020s

Simplistic notion of 2 fluid beds in oxidation and reduction modes

In studies seems to solve the competitive issuesSlide7

IGCC- Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle

IGCC

Technology has existed for decades

Scale up has proved problematic

Two large scale plants in the this mode

Edwardsport-600MW

No carbon capture

Cost $3.6 billion against budget of $1.7 billion

Kemper-618MW

60% carbon capture

Still in start-up

$6.4 billion versus budget of $1.8 billion

Great Plains Energy

Produces synthetic natural gas

Terrible history of financeSlide8

Coal to Chemicals

Coal to Chemicals has been done well but replication seems difficult

Eastman chemical in TN has succeeded for decades

New projects ae opposed by environmental groups successfully

Talk in Wyoming about replicating Chinese level activities

Issues around market size and competitive pricingSlide9

Reflections on the Core Barriers

Policy

There are no drivers to incentive Coal

The Clean Power Plan allows existing plants to do nothing and continue to operate

MATS (Mercury) eliminated most older plants from competitive operation

Coal Fleet averages 45 years at present- few candidates for investment which has reduced the coal fleet from 320 GW to about 240 GW

The New Source Performance Standards requires new coal to reach 1400 lbs./MWHr

Approximately 20-30% CO2 reduction from Ultra-Super Critical boilers

Combining USC with CCS will not compete with unabated natural gas combined cycles

Natural gas runs unabated from CO2 control under both plans

In the Clean Power Plan building blocks there is a design to increase gas

Renewables benefit from several incentives

Clean Power plan sees escalating to 28% deployment

Production tax credits and Investment Tax Credits

Renewable Portfolio Standards or renewable Energy standards

Financial

New technology needs development and financial support Banks do like to finance “first of a kind technologies”DOE loan guarantees do not cover technical riskEarly track record a disasterEconomics Markets are focused on regulations, short term solutions, and competitive issuesAbundant, low price natural gas has taken the incentive from development and investmentSlide10

Conclusion

The technology for a Zero Emission Coal Plant exists today

Policy and regulations have created a scenario causing EIA projections of no new coal for at least through 2030

M

any of us continue development with the hope of technology breakthrough or changing market conditions perhaps outside the US

Logically the aging coal fleet will grow smaller- 210 GW by 2030

There is great pressure to force even developing countries to move to gas and away from coal- US and World Bank policy is for all coal around the world to require CCS

Coal is an abundant and inexpensive natural resource but factors of timing and policy may mean an even more rapidly shrinking global dependence on coalSlide11