Costing of election platforms by CPB Johannes Hers 02022015 Charted Choices Setting Pros and Cons Content and Tools In practice 8th edition Final Considerations CPB Setting Established shortly after World War II ID: 237240
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Charted Choices" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
Slide1
Charted Choices
Costing of election platforms by CPB
Johannes Hers
02-02-2015Slide2
Charted Choices
Setting
Pros and Cons
Content and Tools
In practice - 8th edition
Final ConsiderationsSlide3
CPB - Setting
Established shortly after World War II
Jan Tinbergen first Director
Independent in practice, but formally part of the Ministry of Economic Affairs
Staff of
100-
1
2
0
economists
CPB macro forecasts
must
be used by government for the budget
Policy Analysis on broad range of topics (Education, CBA, Ageing, Health Care)
and
Evaluation of Election Platforms!Slide4
Evaluation of
Election
Platforms - Setting
Netherlands
, land of
coalition
government
:
extensive
negotiation
on
Coalition
Agreement
extensive
Financial Annex
to
Coalition
Agreement
relatively
fact
based
policies
Enhances
importance
of
Election
Platforms and
their
Financial AnnexSlide5
Evaluation of Election Platforms -
Setting
Mid-term economic forecast
incl
sustainability of public finance
Advisory Group on Fiscal Policy recommends fiscal target
Publication of CPB analysis of election manifestos
Elections
Negotiations on new coalition agreement
Publication of CPB analysis of coalition agreement
Start: about 5-6 months prior to electionsSlide6
Evaluation of
Election
Platforms - Setting
Builds
on
regular
work
CPB:
Forecasts
for
short and medium term
Policy
analysis
Sustainability
analysis
Started
in 1986, scope
gradually
extended
over time:
number
of
parties
number
of topics
At the
request
of
political
parties
:
almost
all
parties
participate
(public
pressure
)
based
on
information
provided
by
partiesSlide7
Evaluation of Election Platforms - Pros
Same underlying economic scenario
Evaluation by identical standards
Makes programs comparable
Improves technicalities in proposals
Deeply suspicious regarding free lunches
Checks practical and juridical feasibility
Extends credibility to parties
Starting point bargaining for new government
Slide8
Evaluation of Election Platforms - Cons
Individual party proposals
Constrain on political debate (e.g. juridical feasibility)
Bias towards proposal that are easily evaluated
Bias against new innovative proposals (unknown
scores zero)
Bias against choices for proposals that do not score well (ODA)
Gaming: select proposals just with an eye to getting a good score
Short sighted as opposed to long term structural reform
Scope
Too broad and process too burdensome, but also
What is not evaluated gets less attention
There is more than economicsSlide9
Evaluation of
Election
Platforms - Content
Key trade –
off’s
Short (1-4 years) vs long
term (2040)
effects
Demand side vs supply side effects
Efficiency (GDP, employment) vs redistribution
Examples:
Improving government finance adverse effects on purchasing power
Improving incentives for labor
supply adverse effects on
equitySlide10
Evaluation of
Election
Platforms - Content
(0) Direct fiscal effect of policy measures (“ex ante”)
(1)
Effect on
government
balance
and
debt
in medium
term (“ex post”)
(1)
Effects
on macro
economic
variables in medium term – 4
years
(2)
Effects
on
purchasing
power /
income
distribution
in medium term
(3) Effect on
structural
employment
in long run
(
4
) Effect on
sustainable
public
finances
in long run
(5) No
longer
in the next
edition
: program
effects
on
greenhouse
gases
,
education
,
housing
market, transport
and
mobilitySlide11
Example of outcomes and key trade off's
VVD
PvdA
PVV
CDA
SP
D66
GL
changes compared to baseline
(1) EMU
balance (2017, ex post, % GDP)
1.4
1.1
1.3
1.1
0.8
1.0
1.0
(1)
GDP
volume (2017, %)-0.2-2.30.7-0.6-1.8-1.1-2.0(1) Unemployment (2017, pp*)0.81.3-0.51.20.41.31.1(2) Purchasing power median (2017)-1¼-¼2-3¼3-2½2½(2) Lowest and highest income ratio (2017)-23¾¼-½6¼-¾1(3) Structural employment (2040, pp)3¾-1-¼2¼-3¾1½2¼(4) Sustainability (% GDP)3.22.40.43.41.63.33.2(5) Greenhouse gases (2020, Mt CO2 eq)-14-345-7-23-31-63(5) GDP effect education (structural, %)2.92.7-0.20.70.53.51(5) Housing market (welfare gains, % GDP)-0.20.4-0.9-0.1-0.40.10.7(5) Transport and mobility (welfare gains, % GDP)-0.010.02-0.02-0.020.010.04-0.04Slide12
Evaluation of
Election
Platforms -
Tools
Simple
calculations
(P x Q)
Expert Opinion
by
CPB or
obtained
elsewhere
(
ao
Ministries
)
Complex Models
(1) Saffier,
macroeconometric
model for medium term projections(2) MiMoSi, Micro simulation system on purchasing power, labour costs, social security and income tax (3) Micsim, our new microsimulation model for labour market effects(4) Gamma, simulation model for ageing, pensions and public finances(5) Specific models for education, transport, housing market etc.Slide13
Evaluation
of
Election
Platforms -
What's
different?
Charted
Choices
= business as
usual
times
10:
Many
parties
as
opposed
to
1 (the cabinet)Ensure Chinese Walls while analysing party platformsLevel of expertise / common language variesMany measures (for 4 years instead 1)Broad range of analyses at one point in timeMore novel, untested ideasSlide14
In
Practice
- 8th
edition
production
time: 3
months
, 60
people
(+ 20 PBL)
456 pages
2468
measures
reported
size
individual
measure > 50 mln (= 0,008% of GDP)10 partiesPer party 14-18 pages with measures and 20 pages with results Slide15
Final
Considerations
Focuses
political
debate
on
differences
in
policy
view
True
assessment
requires
involvement
of partiesBroad scope of issues to avoid shopping / gamingIn depth knowledge of government budget and forecastingStakes are high: difficult to exclude parties, need to deliverYou need to love to be hatedSlide16
Questions
?
http://
www.cpb.nl/en/publication/charted-choices-2013-2017