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Charted Choices - PowerPoint Presentation

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Charted Choices - PPT Presentation

Costing of election platforms by CPB Johannes Hers 02022015 Charted Choices Setting Pros and Cons Content and Tools In practice 8th edition Final Considerations CPB Setting Established shortly after World War II ID: 237240

election platforms parties evaluation platforms election evaluation parties effects gdp cpb term 2017 government choices policy analysis proposals medium effect coalition setting

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Slide1

Charted Choices

Costing of election platforms by CPB

Johannes Hers

02-02-2015Slide2

Charted Choices

Setting

Pros and Cons

Content and Tools

In practice - 8th edition

Final ConsiderationsSlide3

CPB - Setting

Established shortly after World War II

Jan Tinbergen first Director

Independent in practice, but formally part of the Ministry of Economic Affairs

Staff of

100-

1

2

0

economists

CPB macro forecasts

must

be used by government for the budget

Policy Analysis on broad range of topics (Education, CBA, Ageing, Health Care)

and

Evaluation of Election Platforms!Slide4

Evaluation of

Election

Platforms - Setting

Netherlands

, land of

coalition

government

:

extensive

negotiation

on

Coalition

Agreement

extensive

Financial Annex

to

Coalition

Agreement

relatively

fact

based

policies

Enhances

importance

of

Election

Platforms and

their

Financial AnnexSlide5

Evaluation of Election Platforms -

Setting

Mid-term economic forecast

incl

sustainability of public finance

Advisory Group on Fiscal Policy recommends fiscal target

Publication of CPB analysis of election manifestos

Elections

Negotiations on new coalition agreement

Publication of CPB analysis of coalition agreement

Start: about 5-6 months prior to electionsSlide6

Evaluation of

Election

Platforms - Setting

Builds

on

regular

work

CPB:

Forecasts

for

short and medium term

Policy

analysis

Sustainability

analysis

Started

in 1986, scope

gradually

extended

over time:

number

of

parties

number

of topics

At the

request

of

political

parties

:

almost

all

parties

participate

(public

pressure

)

based

on

information

provided

by

partiesSlide7

Evaluation of Election Platforms - Pros

Same underlying economic scenario

Evaluation by identical standards

Makes programs comparable

Improves technicalities in proposals

Deeply suspicious regarding free lunches

Checks practical and juridical feasibility

Extends credibility to parties

Starting point bargaining for new government

Slide8

Evaluation of Election Platforms - Cons

Individual party proposals

Constrain on political debate (e.g. juridical feasibility)

Bias towards proposal that are easily evaluated

Bias against new innovative proposals (unknown

scores zero)

Bias against choices for proposals that do not score well (ODA)

Gaming: select proposals just with an eye to getting a good score

Short sighted as opposed to long term structural reform

Scope

Too broad and process too burdensome, but also

What is not evaluated gets less attention

There is more than economicsSlide9

Evaluation of

Election

Platforms - Content

Key trade –

off’s

Short (1-4 years) vs long

term (2040)

effects

Demand side vs supply side effects

Efficiency (GDP, employment) vs redistribution

Examples:

Improving government finance adverse effects on purchasing power

Improving incentives for labor

supply adverse effects on

equitySlide10

Evaluation of

Election

Platforms - Content

(0) Direct fiscal effect of policy measures (“ex ante”)

(1)

Effect on

government

balance

and

debt

in medium

term (“ex post”)

(1)

Effects

on macro

economic

variables in medium term – 4

years

(2)

Effects

on

purchasing

power /

income

distribution

in medium term

(3) Effect on

structural

employment

in long run

(

4

) Effect on

sustainable

public

finances

in long run

(5) No

longer

in the next

edition

: program

effects

on

greenhouse

gases

,

education

,

housing

market, transport

and

mobilitySlide11

Example of outcomes and key trade off's

VVD

PvdA

PVV

CDA

SP

D66

GL

changes compared to baseline

(1) EMU

balance (2017, ex post, % GDP)

1.4

1.1

1.3

1.1

0.8

1.0

1.0

(1)

GDP

volume (2017, %)-0.2-2.30.7-0.6-1.8-1.1-2.0(1) Unemployment (2017, pp*)0.81.3-0.51.20.41.31.1(2) Purchasing power median (2017)-1¼-¼2-3¼3-2½2½(2) Lowest and highest income ratio (2017)-23¾¼-½6¼-¾1(3) Structural employment (2040, pp)3¾-1-¼2¼-3¾1½2¼(4) Sustainability (% GDP)3.22.40.43.41.63.33.2(5) Greenhouse gases (2020, Mt CO2 eq)-14-345-7-23-31-63(5) GDP effect education (structural, %)2.92.7-0.20.70.53.51(5) Housing market (welfare gains, % GDP)-0.20.4-0.9-0.1-0.40.10.7(5) Transport and mobility (welfare gains, % GDP)-0.010.02-0.02-0.020.010.04-0.04Slide12

Evaluation of

Election

Platforms -

Tools

Simple

calculations

(P x Q)

Expert Opinion

by

CPB or

obtained

elsewhere

(

ao

Ministries

)

Complex Models

(1) Saffier,

macroeconometric

model for medium term projections(2) MiMoSi, Micro simulation system on purchasing power, labour costs, social security and income tax (3) Micsim, our new microsimulation model for labour market effects(4) Gamma, simulation model for ageing, pensions and public finances(5) Specific models for education, transport, housing market etc.Slide13

Evaluation

of

Election

Platforms -

What's

different?

Charted

Choices

= business as

usual

times

10:

Many

parties

as

opposed

to

1 (the cabinet)Ensure Chinese Walls while analysing party platformsLevel of expertise / common language variesMany measures (for 4 years instead 1)Broad range of analyses at one point in timeMore novel, untested ideasSlide14

In

Practice

- 8th

edition

production

time: 3

months

, 60

people

(+ 20 PBL)

456 pages

2468

measures

reported

size

individual

measure > 50 mln (= 0,008% of GDP)10 partiesPer party 14-18 pages with measures and 20 pages with results Slide15

Final

Considerations

Focuses

political

debate

on

differences

in

policy

view

True

assessment

requires

involvement

of partiesBroad scope of issues to avoid shopping / gamingIn depth knowledge of government budget and forecastingStakes are high: difficult to exclude parties, need to deliverYou need to love to be hatedSlide16

Questions

?

http://

www.cpb.nl/en/publication/charted-choices-2013-2017