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Presentation on theme: "Professor Martin"— Presentation transcript:
Professor Martin Williams
King’s College London
Ten years of the IAQM – lessons for air quality professionals
Dispersion Modellers User GroupSt Martins in the Field5 December 2012
It’s not just one anniversary.....The first week in December is dangerous
the smog peaked on
4 & 5 December
, with 3-hour ‘smoke’ concentrations reaching 6000 µg/m
at Islington in the evening of the 4
Much Ado about Modelling
The play (Much Ado About Nothing) is all about deception and trickery
There are lessons for air quality professionals here....!
What has happened in ten years?
Vehicle emission regulation in the EU has been shown to be flawed
Diesel car use has increased, as has the power of diesels
EU AQ Directive, NECD/CLRTAP compliance dates have come and gone (with extensions...)
Health effect evidence has strengthened and health impact assessments at local level are now accepted
Indications emerging regarding toxicity of PM components
PM is still the biggest issue: measurements still give problems
But AMS and other techniques giving rich information regarding sources and mechanisms for PM
AQ & CC links beginning to strengthen? SLCPs and the ‘Coalition’ at the global level
But antagonisms still persist at local level – better science can help here – Diesel, Biomass
What has happened in ten years?
London Low Emission Zone, Congestion Charge – first examples of major non-technical measures (apart from Budgets...)
UK and London Mayor AQ Strategies published
UK LAQM reviewed – more emphasis on
rather than review and assessment?
EU AQ legislation review begun
Open source models are now widely used for regional modelling
Model performance and uncertainties are being quantified, and their use for policy is being addressed
So what are the lessons from all this?
Keep questioning the received wisdom
Take nothing for granted
Policy measures need checking and evaluating –
before it’s too late!
The failure of Euro Standards for diesel cars/LGVs
Why has this happened?-the regulatory test cycle is not dynamic/aggressive enough to reflect real-world driving
The regulatory test cycle is not dynamic enough – comparison of RPA for different cycles
et al, Energy Policy, 2012)
Set up in the 1995 Environment Act
Lots of R & As done, many AQMAs declared but little improvement in air quality
Maybe not surprising – LA influence is limited, what can LAs meaningfully do?
PM and LAs – if primary emissions turn out to be important, LA role increases
Many (most?) AQMAs cover tiny areas when a holistic management approach could be better
Co-ordination at local level needs improving (also at central level!)
Challenge for AQ professionals is that most available LA measures are ‘soft’ so hard to evaluate
Communicating AQ/Health messages is crucial
Getting the message across
Modelling developments in the last ten years
The big development has been the rise in open-source model use
But these are
models-they need some nesting to treat fine-scale urban problems satisfactorily
Double counting? Height of lowest grid cell? Mixing height vs Boundary Layer height?
The ‘own-square’ problem, always a tricky part of models (of all kinds)
are still a key weakness of models – as existing sources are controlled, and as science develops, new sources emerge, and inventories
need critical appraisal
Recommended reading - Anton Eliassens’s chapter – the weak points of ‘own-square’ calculation in large sophisticated models is not a new issue!
Close co-operation at local level can help minimise antagonisms between AQ and CC policies
Probably the most direct example of antagonisms between AQ and CC policies
Particularly in small scale combustion systems where combustion is less efficient and abatement is not possible or very difficult to deliver
The RHI needs to recognise this as do local AQM systems and powers
But good quality science will be needed here – measurements and modelling
And how much of the decarbonisation of the transport system will be from
use compared with electric vehicles?
New measurement techniques (e.g. AMS) will help identify biomass problems
LAs can help make electric cars acceptable?!(picture taken in London 13 March 2012)