Professor Martin
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Professor Martin

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Professor Martin




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Slide1

Professor Martin Williams

King’s College London

Ten years of the IAQM – lessons for air quality professionals

Dispersion Modellers User GroupSt Martins in the Field5 December 2012

Slide2

It’s not just one anniversary.....The first week in December is dangerous

In 19

62

the smog peaked on

4 & 5 December

, with 3-hour ‘smoke’ concentrations reaching 6000 µg/m

3

at Islington in the evening of the 4

th

.

Slide3

Much Ado about Modelling

The play (Much Ado About Nothing) is all about deception and trickery

There are lessons for air quality professionals here....!

Slide4

What has happened in ten years?

Vehicle emission regulation in the EU has been shown to be flawed

Diesel car use has increased, as has the power of diesels

EU AQ Directive, NECD/CLRTAP compliance dates have come and gone (with extensions...)

Health effect evidence has strengthened and health impact assessments at local level are now accepted

Indications emerging regarding toxicity of PM components

PM is still the biggest issue: measurements still give problems

But AMS and other techniques giving rich information regarding sources and mechanisms for PM

AQ & CC links beginning to strengthen? SLCPs and the ‘Coalition’ at the global level

But antagonisms still persist at local level – better science can help here – Diesel, Biomass

Slide5

What has happened in ten years?

London Low Emission Zone, Congestion Charge – first examples of major non-technical measures (apart from Budgets...)

UK and London Mayor AQ Strategies published

UK LAQM reviewed – more emphasis on

action

rather than review and assessment?

EU AQ legislation review begun

Open source models are now widely used for regional modelling

Model performance and uncertainties are being quantified, and their use for policy is being addressed

Slide6

So what are the lessons from all this?

Keep questioning the received wisdom

Take nothing for granted

Policy measures need checking and evaluating –

before it’s too late!

Slide7

The failure of Euro Standards for diesel cars/LGVs

Slide8

8

Slide9

Why has this happened?-the regulatory test cycle is not dynamic/aggressive enough to reflect real-world driving

9

Slide10

The regulatory test cycle is not dynamic enough – comparison of RPA for different cycles

From

J.Demuynck

et al, Energy Policy, 2012)

Slide11

Slide12

LAQM-the future?

Set up in the 1995 Environment Act

Lots of R & As done, many AQMAs declared but little improvement in air quality

Maybe not surprising – LA influence is limited, what can LAs meaningfully do?

PM and LAs – if primary emissions turn out to be important, LA role increases

Many (most?) AQMAs cover tiny areas when a holistic management approach could be better

Co-ordination at local level needs improving (also at central level!)

Challenge for AQ professionals is that most available LA measures are ‘soft’ so hard to evaluate

Communicating AQ/Health messages is crucial

Slide13

Getting the message across

Slide14

Modelling developments in the last ten years

The big development has been the rise in open-source model use

But these are

mesoscale

models-they need some nesting to treat fine-scale urban problems satisfactorily

Double counting? Height of lowest grid cell? Mixing height vs Boundary Layer height?

The ‘own-square’ problem, always a tricky part of models (of all kinds)

Emission inventories

are still a key weakness of models – as existing sources are controlled, and as science develops, new sources emerge, and inventories

need critical appraisal

Slide15

Recommended reading - Anton Eliassens’s chapter – the weak points of ‘own-square’ calculation in large sophisticated models is not a new issue!

Slide16

Close co-operation at local level can help minimise antagonisms between AQ and CC policies

Slide17

Biomass/biofuels

Probably the most direct example of antagonisms between AQ and CC policies

Particularly in small scale combustion systems where combustion is less efficient and abatement is not possible or very difficult to deliver

The RHI needs to recognise this as do local AQM systems and powers

But good quality science will be needed here – measurements and modelling

And how much of the decarbonisation of the transport system will be from

biofuel

use compared with electric vehicles?

Slide18

New measurement techniques (e.g. AMS) will help identify biomass problems

Slide19

LAs can help make electric cars acceptable?!(picture taken in London 13 March 2012)

Slide20

Thank you!

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