P Young V Naik J Brandt R Doherty A M Fiore C Geels M I Hegglin L Hu U Im R Kumar M Lin A Luhar L Murray D A Parrish D Plummer H E Rieder J Rodriguez J L Schnell M Schultz S ID: 512175
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Tropospheric ozone in global models
P. Young, V. Naik, J. Brandt, R. Doherty, A. M. Fiore, C. Geels, M. I. Hegglin, L. Hu, U. Im, R. Kumar, M. Lin, A. Luhar, L. Murray, D. A. Parrish, D. Plummer, H. E. Rieder, J. Rodriguez, J. L. Schnell, M. Schultz, S. Tilmes, O. Wild, M. Woodhouse, G. Zeng, L. Zhang, J. Ziemke
TOAR Chapter 7
TOAR Beijing Workshop, Jan 2016
…
and thanks to all those reviewing!Slide2
Outline
Chapter structureMajor science pointsFiguresRemaining issuesOverlapsRequest for author contributions
Owen’s requestSlide3
Our chapter will…
Review and assess tropospheric ozone in the current generation of global chemistry models, including evaluation methods, model performance and model shortcomings. Slide4
Goals/science points
Synthesize information on models Identify ways to improve model evaluation techniques and the models themselvesEncourage the community* to critically reflect on the right model for the right question/purpose (and how they might assess that)*modelers, observational scientists and data analysts, and impact communitySlide5
Chapter structure (currently)
IntroductionHow are models evaluated?How do they compare to observations?Why might they be wrong?ConclusionsSlide6
Chapter structure (currently)
IntroductionHistory and description of global models and assessmentsMethods of evaluating model performancePresent day ozone distribution (climatology)Extreme
ozone pollution episodesSub-decadal scale ozone variabilityLong
term ozone changes
Drivers of model biases
Summary and conclusionsSlide7
Approach
Drawing on published literaturemulti-model focus, but with ref to single model studiescut off date?No substantial new data analysisEasier to encourage contributions cf. WMO, IPCCSlide8
Some (key) f
iguresSlide9
Model process schematicSlide10
Different model types…Slide11
…continuedSlide12
ACCMIP
vs Sofen (ann mean)Slide13
ACCMIP
vs CASTNET (more in chapter)Slide14
CMIP5
vs OMI*Would like to update OMI with Free Trop TOAR Chapter 2 product*issue with this data (as is probably clear!)Slide15
Gaps &
outstanding issuesSlide16
Methods section
Important since evaluation often ad hocWill have more assessment of current methods (e.g. biased evaluations)Should we link to the TOAR dataset as a “gold standard”?Slide17
Extreme events
Perhaps a debate to be had about using global models for this purposeAlso section very US focused currentlySlide18
Sub-decadal variability
Needs refocusing (agree with Owen)More on (e.g.) OEI and strat variability etcNote beginnings of more ozone indices (e.g. PNA, PDO)Slide19
Long term variability/trends
Keep focus on model evaluationVarious papers on this to include!Beyond US, EU and remote sites, appears not much in this field?Little (no?) work on multi-decadal scale climate-ozone linksSlide20
Drivers of model biases
Section needs finishingVery hard (impossible?) to isolate cause of biases in complex modelsWill be identifying candidate processes/factors There will be unknown unknowns!Slide21
Links to other chapters (??)
Chapter 1Could be duplication of intro materialChapter 2 Model/obs comparisonsPre-industrial discussionChapter 3-6Applying metrics to model output?????Slide22
Author contributions…
WMO is a good model (in my experience)Will be looking for volunteers on our chapter to lead of our sections (i.e. lead the writing/editing)