by Lutz Finger Last update March 2014 The philosophy of the day is data ism DAVID BROOKS NYTDAVIDBROOKS We focus too much on technology Google Search on the ID: 167461
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Slide1
Ask Measure Learn
by Lutz Finger
Last update: March, 2014Slide2
The philosophy of the day
is .data-
ism—DAVID BROOKS (@NYTDAVIDBROOKS)Slide3
We focus too much on technology
Google Search on the
term “Big Data”Slide4
ASK
the right Questions.MEASURE the right data – even if it is not Big data.Take Actions and LEARN
from them.Slide5
Ask the
right
QuestionASKSlide6
THE
HARDEST PART
ASKSlide7
Let’s do “Social Media”
ASKSlide8
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value.
ASKSlide9
Please find an “INFLUENCER”
Opinion
leaders (Katz
1955)
Influentials
(Merton 1968)
Law of the Few (
Gladwell
2000)
Source: ‘
Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
ASKSlide10
A few person decide what we do…
Source: ‘
Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
ASKSlide11
REALLY?
Source: ‘
Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
ASKSlide12
Dear Marketers,
There is no influencer. It’s a myth
.ASKSlide13
Reality 50% is Homophily
Source: Kevin Lewisa, Marco Gonzaleza and Jason Kaufman (2012): PNAS Vol 109, no 1
4 years
1001
Students
on Facebook
traditional Self-reported Data
How did taste Spread
Influence is often
overestimated
.
It needs:
Reach
Readiness
Topic Dependence
ASKSlide14
Aja
Dior M.? AP News?
ASKSlide15
Aja Dior M.
omgg, my aunt tiffany who work for whitney houston just found whitney houston dead in the tub. such ashamed & sad :(
45 min
Aja
Dior M.?
AP News?
ASKSlide16
I want to create “REACH”
… in order to “SELL”
ASKSlide17
Measure
the
rightDataSlide18
What is RIGHT?
MEASURE
Source: WIkipediaSlide19
e
ven if it is not
Big DataMEASURESlide20
More Data
More Insightsdoes not equal MEASURESlide21
Data ELT and Aggregation
Petabyte
G
igabyte
Bit
Terabyte
1
2
3
4
We want
small
data….
Yes
or
No
MEASURESlide22
Calculating Reach via Network Data
1977: Linton
C. Freeman, “Centrality based on Betweenness .”
MEASURESlide23
“REACH”
creates awareness
“SELL”needs purchase intendMEASURESlide24
Correlations are important
MEASURESlide25
What is your behavior?
Source: ‘
Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly MediaMEASURESlide26
The issue with the Correlation
/ Causation
MEASURESource: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly MediaSlide27
Sometimes data
is not easy to get.
MEASURESlide28
Social Behavior is ‘unstructured’
Source: ‘
Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly MediaMEASURESlide29
It is way easier to work with ‘structured data’
New York Weather in April 2013
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly MediaMEASURESlide30
30
MEASURE
Source: Jeffrey BreenMEASURESlide31
What is RIGHT?
Source: ‘
Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly MediaMEASURESlide32
Right
and learn
from them. ActionsSlide33
Information vs. Action…
LEARNSlide34
Information vs. Action…
LEARNSlide35
Three Types of actionable Insights
Benchmark
PredictionsRecommendations &Filter
LEARNSlide36
BENCHMARK
LEARNSlide37
Competitive Benchmark
Source: ‘
Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly MediaLEARNSlide38
RECOMMEND & FILTER
LEARNSlide39
LinkedIn Recommendation Products
People You May Know
Groups You May Like
Ads You Be Interested in
Companies you May Want to Follow
Puls
Similar Profiles
LEARNSlide40
Filter
Source: ‘
Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly MediaLEARNSlide41
PREDICTIONS
LEARNSlide42
Predicting the OSCAR 2013
LEARNSlide43
Predicting the OSCAR
LEARNSlide44
Predicting the OSCAR
Source:
FarsitePossible other Features:CROWDSOURCED:Box Office ResultsMovie Goer ReviewsCriticsOTHER “Hard Facts”GenrePayment of ActorsEtc.
LEARNSlide45
Predicting Box Office
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
LEARNSlide46
Predictions are not easy, especially if they are about the
Future.
LEARNSlide47
Which Model to use
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
LEARNSlide48
Which Model to use
Google’s Prediction API
LEARNSlide49
Many more examples…
Benchmark
Recommendation & FilterPredict
LEARNSlide50
Data Wrangling & Data Science is getting Easier
LEARNSlide51
LEARNSlide52
SummarySlide53
ASK
the right Questions.MEASURE the right data – even if it is not Big data.Take Actions and LEARN
from them.Slide54
Thanks
LutzFinger.com