Anthony R Lupo Professor Department of Soil Environmental and Atmospheric Science 302 ABNR Building University of Missouri Columbia MO 65211 Introduction Climate Change has become an important issue for society to confront We cant avoid it ID: 714219
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Climate Variability, El Nino and Souther..." is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
![El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO]](https://thumbs.docslides.com/273538/el-ni-o-southern-oscillation-enso.jpg)
Slide1
Climate Variability, El Nino and Southern Oscillation and a Very Preliminary Summer Outlook.
Anthony R. Lupo, Professor
Department of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Science
302 ABNR Building
University of Missouri
Columbia, MO 65211Slide2
Introduction
Climate Change has become an important issue for society to confront. We can’t avoid it…
It is believed (in some quarters) much or all of the increase since the mid-19
th century is due solely to human activities. Slide3
Introduction
Global climate has been steady for the last 18 years, in spite of the continuous increase in atmospheric CO
2
Slide4
Introduction
This has led to an increased interest in the (return to? ) concept of climate variability as a possible reason for the “hiatus”.
Climate has always changed
? Slide5
Climate: Definition
Climate
Is the long-term or time mean state of the earth-atmosphere system and the state variables along with higher order statistics. Also, we must describe extremes and recurrence frequencies.
Climate Change is any change in the long term statistics. Climate Variability internal fluctuations that result from the interactions between parts of the climate system or within one subsection. Slide6
Climate
The earth-atmosphere system, courtesy of Dr. Richard Rood.
(http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/class/aoss605/lectures/)Slide7
El Niño and Southern Oscillation
El Niño and Southern Oscillation / La Niña
El Niño has a periodicity of two to seven years. (Philander, 1989)
Defined as five straight months of the running six-month sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean region < -0.5o C from the climatological mean. Slide8
El Niño and Southern Oscillation
Maps / Data – January 2018Slide9
El Niño and Southern Oscillation
El Niño history;
Noted in South America by the indigenous peoples of the region and “coined” El Niño by the Spanish in the 1660’s.
Sir Gilbert Walker and the Southern Oscillation in the 1920s Slide10
El Niño and Southern Oscillation
J.
Bjernes
(1969) links SO to El Niño. El Niño of 1982-1983 makes news! (Images “stolen” from PMEL – NOAA. Slide11
El Niño and Southern Oscillation
La Niña Slide12
El Niño and Southern Oscillation
Impact on the USA is via the jet stream (El Niño: the 800
lb
gorilla of short term variability)
Slide13
Pacific Decadal Oscillationon
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Only Known since the late 1990’a starting with Minobe (1997) and Gershunov
and Barnett (1998). PDO is a Pacific ocean basin-wide fluctuation (50 – 70 years) in SSTs. Slide14
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Maps: PDO+ Warm east Pacific / Cold West Pacific
PDO+ PDO-Slide15
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
PDO+ from 1977 – 1998, and 1924 – 1946.
PDO- from 1947-1976, 1999 – present.
Modulates El Niño (Berger et al. 2003; Lupo and Johnston 2000; Lupo et al. 2002; Kelsey et al, 2007, Lupo et al. 2008;
Birk et al. 2010). May be linked to global themohaline circulation and North Atlantic Oscillation.Slide16
Missouri Impacts
The impact of El Niño on Missouri weather is very complex, but the impact of the PDO is to modulate the El Niño signal.
During PDO-, the El Niño signal is weak over most of the state, the only exception in southern Missouri.
Columbia, MO
Temperatures
-PDO La Niña
Season
Warm Months
Cool Months
Normal Months
Winter
11.8%
3.9%
84.3%
Spring
9.8%
11.8%
78.4%
Summer
5.9%
17.6%
76.5%
Fall
13.7%
5.9%
80.4%Slide17
Missouri Impacts
La Niña winters – generally cold for Missouri with more snow, and decent precipitation. Southern part warmer and drier.
El Niño – two types
Weak – Like La NiñaStrong – warm and dry winters with less snow, but southern Missouri is cooler and wetter with more snow. Slide18
Agricultural Impacts
El Niño thought to have no impact on summer weather.
New Research is showing that it is the transition between El Niño to La Niña that is correlated to summer weather, especially in Missouri. Newberry et al. (2016).
Slide19
Agricultural Impacts
The transition toward La Niña generally is associated with hot dry weather in the summer (1954, 1988, 2011, 2012).
Transition to La Nina summers are 1-2
o F warmer than other summers. Also drier
The transition toward El Niño means generally favorable summer weather, cool and moist, but a dry spell late (2015). Slide20
Agricultural Impacts
Temperature – crop production
Slide21
Agricultural Impacts
Precipitation – crop production
Slide22
Climate Prediction Center Forecasts
Spring 2018 Forecast (March – May) Slide23
Climate Prediction Center Forecasts
Summer 2018 Forecast (June – August) Slide24
Model Projections
December 2017 January 2018 Slide25
Our Very Early Preliminary Forecast – Summer 2018
Temperatures within the range of normal or “typical for a summer season in Missouri. Possibly a hot spell in mid-late August. Basically good news for cooling bills.
Normal to above normal amounts of precipitation, especially June and July.
Reasoning: We are in a La Nina year now. Models project the Pacific moves into El Nino next year. This kind of transition is positive for agriculture. Slide26
Conclusions
Climate change is expected to influence this region over the next century, models are probably over-stating the strength of the changes.
Climate variability particularly the El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation have a profound impact on our weather and climate in both winter and summer. Slide27
Conclusions
Climate variability is perhaps the larger issue for agricultural interests. Economically, adaptation is the best strategy for climate change whether it is human or naturally forced.
We have enough information now to project probable temperature and precipitation patterns for 4 – 12 months regularly and make reasonable generalized projections out one to two decades. Slide28
The End!
Questions?
Comments?
Criticisms?
lupoa@missouri.edu