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ISIS/Islamic State and terrorism ISIS/Islamic State and terrorism

ISIS/Islamic State and terrorism - PowerPoint Presentation

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ISIS/Islamic State and terrorism - PPT Presentation

The apocalypse postponed Definition of terrorism Terrorism is violence committed by non state actors against civilians for a presumed political goal The origins of Terrorist groups in the Middle East ID: 630854

islamic state qaeda mosul state islamic mosul qaeda iraq shia syria muslims sunni war fighters caliphate islam afghanistan bin

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Slide1

ISIS/Islamic State and terrorism

The apocalypse postponedSlide2

Definition of terrorism

Terrorism is violence committed by non state actors against civilians for a presumed political goal.Slide3

The origins of Terrorist groups in the Middle East

1979 – The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. US arms the rebels. The rebels keep the goods.

CIA funds the mujahedeen through Pakistan's secret service the ISI.

Al Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden act as go between the CIA , the Saudis and the Afghan rebels. Recruited Afghan rebel outsiders and spread the network.

Rural Muslims fighting the communist leaning government in Kabul.

Gorbachev draws it to a close by 1989 after 55,000 Russian deaths.

Taliban step into the vacuum by 1996. US finances them in order to slow down Opium production.Slide4

The US and the Afghan rebelsSlide5

What Afghan rebels feared most....Slide6

What the CIA provided – stinger AA MissilesSlide7

How bad it became

The antics of Mujahedeen commander Hekmatyar epitomize the careless aid policy of the West. Despite hijacking medical supplies, backing out of agreed missions, fighting the other factions, and taking part in the heroin trade, Hekmatyar received the most funding of all the rebels and was allowed to 

visit

British PM Thatcher in Downing Street for his commitment.

1998 – Bin Laden operatives attack the US Cole.

9/11 – visa stuff up for Saudi conspirators. US invades Afghanistan to get Taliban to hand over Bin Laden and to topple the Taliban government. Taliban becomes the enemy.

2011 – Bin Laden killed in Pakistan.Slide8

What Hillary thought

“We had helped create the problem we’re now fighting. Because when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan we had this brilliant idea that we were going to come to Pakistan and create a force of Mujahedeen, equip them with Stinger missiles and everything else, to go after the Soviets. And we were successful, the Soviets left Afghanistan and we said ‘great goodbye’ leaving these trained people who were fanatical in Afghanistan and Pakistan, leaving them well armed, creating a mess frankly…now you look back the people we’re fighting today, we were supporting in the fight against the Soviets.”Slide9

What created Islamic state?

1979 – USSR invades Afghanistan. US arms rebels who keep the weapons.

2003 and the American second War with Iraq. Finishing off unfinished business?

Bagdad falls and Saddam Hussein disappears.

Rumsfeld and Bush – “light footprint” strategy. Not enough boots on the ground to control the chaos.

Baath Party officials and the Army disbanded. That leaves most of the Middle class unemployed and unemployable. Professionals form admin backbone of the rebel movements. e.g. Oil engineers, financial planners, executives.

2004 - They created Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) under Zarqawi.

2007 - surge improves matters – troop levels up from 130,000 to 168,000 but 2010 - Obama removes most of those troops.

2011 – IS gains strength as the US leaves.

US created Al Maliki administration (Shia) that promised Sunnis a fair deal –a return to sectarianism. Sunni Minority a protected species under Saddam

Sunnis nowhere to go and therefore won’t fight as IS descends on Northern Iraq on its way to Bagdad. AQI becomes ISIL and then IS.Slide10

The IS FlagSlide11

Islamic State – the recent timeline

2002 – Tawhid Wal Jihad assassinated US aid worker in Jordan.

2003 – US invasion – Al Qaeda steal the cash from Iraqi Central Bank.

2004 - became Al Qaeda (the base) in Iraq. Attacks on Shia in Iraq begin

2006 – Islamic State in Iraq. US surge, Zarqawi killed – Sunni awakening. Zarqawi – beheadings – cinema attacks – grenades – diff with Bin Laden over the Shia – Bin Laden’s mother a Shia.

2008 – almost wiped out by the Sunni awakening/ and US Forces

2010 – Al Baghdadi – war against Al Maliki – distances itself from AQ.

Kuwaitis, Qataris and Saudis line up to sponsor.

2013 - ISIL (Islamic State of Ira and the Levant) expands into Syria here it builds an enclave at the expense of other groups. Joins Al Nusra. AQI becomes ISIS.

2014 – Takes Mosul – establishes Caliphate and renames itself IS.Slide12

Al Zarqawi and Al Baghdadi. Zarqawi died 2006 – Al Baghdadi leader since 2010.Slide13

How to spot your terroristSlide14

Islamic State and Al QaedaSlide15

Islamic State and Al Qaeda – the differences.

Al Qaeda not happy with IS brutality. Told them to stop attacking Shias indiscriminately.

Al Qaeda struck over seas – IS at home. Bin Laden warned them not to.

Al Qaeda recruited at home – IS recruits from everywhere. AQ recruits better. IS uses foreigner as “cannon fodder”

IS holds onto territory Al Qaeda does not. AQ cell structure while IS rules from the top down.

IS uses social media effectively – Al Qaeda did not. Magazines, Twitter, WhatsApp, YouTube etc.

Al Qaeda did not treat women as badly as IS does. Women sold as sex slaves and “married” off to fighters.

IS is a state – Al Qaeda is a movement.

IS is pragmatic (not blowing up the Mosul dam) – Al Qaeda not very often.

Al Qaeda did not expect to see a Caliphate in its lifetime. IS waited for the Mahdi who would lead them to victory at “the end of the world” – Al Qaeda told then “to cut it out”.

Al Qaeda not “doing anything” according to IS but US was more concerned about an Al Qaeda attack on election day in the US than IS.Slide16

Baghdadi wanted poster – note rewardSlide17

Ultimate aims of Islamic State

Wants to expel non Muslims from Arabia.

The creation of a single Islamic world community (the umma) that triumphs over national boundaries.

The destruction of the state of Israel.

The end of dictatorships in the Middle East. And democracy – the will of the people over the will of God is an impertinence.

To return to the original pure form of Islam.

Apostates the main victims. Those who abandon proper belief.

Christians sometimes o.k. if they pay the tax

Lapsed Muslims marked for death _ Yazidis?

Very much like the Khmer Rouge and Year Zero?Slide18

The first CaliphatesSlide19

Islamic State and the Caliphate

What is a caliphate?

A caliphate is an Islamic state. It's led by a caliph, who is a political and religious leader who is a successor (

caliph

) to the prophet Muhammad. His power and authority is absolute. Islamic law is strictly enforced.

According to IS there has not been one for over 1000 years. The Turkish Ottoman Empire does not count. Turks as apostates?

It is a return to the 7

th

Century but no one knows what that was like.

Started a flood of recruits from overseas.

It is the duty of Muslims to restore it and to move to it.

Staffed by fighters and non fighters/ administrators.

If it loses the Caliphate is that the end of the Islamic State or will it revert to insurgency and begin again?Slide20

The Caliphate

The Caliphate needs legitimacy something the Taliban never bothered with.

Legitimacy not achieved by statehood – IS very critical of Hamas for accepting UN representation.

Legitimacy achieved by gaining the support of the people

Two groups – fighters and those who provide social services – good cop and bad cop often.

Social services include resorting electricity and water, food kitchens, caring for orphans and running vaccination programmes.

Fixed up power line and did not blow up the Mosul dam. 21m of water in Mosul and right down to Bagdad – 1m dead? Dam in very bad repair.

Brutal certainly but not for most Sunnis who saw it as a delivery from humiliation.Slide21

Islamic State and the Koran

The Koran does forbid the killing of women and children.

The Koran forbids suicide – condemned to hell.

It also forbids suicide or killing by fire.

Forbids the killing of any Muslims including dhimmis.

IS sees signs of God’s grace by the suspension of the laws of nature. Bodies survive multiple gunshots without a mark on them. Birds warn of air strikes. Scorpions attack Soviet troops. Mujahedeen win despite insurmountable odds etc – God is on their side.

Disturbed by lack of education of its Afghan adherents. Critical of PLA in West Bank but likes Hamas.

Believe that if local Muslims cannot defend the faith others must. A global conflict – hence the clash of civilisations which has martyrdom as its centrepiece. Slide22

Dabiq – IS and the media

Obsessed with the micro politics of Syria

Fanatically anti Shia also obsessed with the destruction of Alawites, Druze and Yazidis.

Published since 2014 in Arabic, English, German and French as a recruiting tool.

Dabiq features in Islamic apocalyptic prophecies as the site of an end-of-times showdown between Muslims and their "Roman" enemies. On their way to Constantinople.

Zarqawi - - “the spark has been lit here in Iraq, and its heat will continue to intensify – by Allah's permission – until it burns the crusader armies in Dabiq“. Dabiq fell in October 2016.Slide23

The apocalyptic vision of the IS

It believes Islamic State is written into God’s script

An end of time apocalypse. A great war will take place near Dabiq in Syria 10 kms from the Turkish border between Islamic State and the armies of “Rome”. Christianity vs. Islam? One third of Muslims will run away, one third will die and the remainder will win and the drive on to sack Istanbul. They will then take Rome and that will bring around the final judgement off God and the ascension of all good Muslims to heaven.

Anti Christ also mentioned coming from Iran!!! The Shia Mahdi? ( or the area under IS control between Iraq and Syria). Sunni Mahdi will come before the final day to rid the world of evil.

Biblical exhortations – “rivers of blood” destroy his crops”, “enslave his people” etc.Slide24

And the appalling treatment of minorities – the Yazidis

Yazidis a very old religion borrowing from Islam, Christianity and Zoroastrianism. Considered to be heretical by IS. Ethnically Kurdish.

Christians told to leave Mosul. Kaka'i, Shabak, Turkmen also persecuted.

Based around Sinjar in NW Iraq.

Around 700,000 strong – 40,000 fled to Mt Sinjar where they were protected by allied air strikes.Slide25

Islamic State and the Shias

Shia seen as Innovators who therefore do not respect the original perfection of Islam. Shia say the Mahdi has already been born.

Is seeks to eliminate all Shias from its area of control to make it more homogenous, easier to control and to free up fighters. It is genocide.

2003 first suicide bombers target Shia gatherings. – pilgrimages to holy sites.

Shias seen as the Jews of the Middle East? Allies of the West?

Shias allowed the West back into Iraq.

In Syria Sunni militias take revenge on Shia – first homes looted in Aleppo – use of chemicals in attacks.

IS has so far consistently focused on the Shia and not the "far enemy". The struggle against the US and Europe is distant, not a priority; it has to await liberation at home. They hate minorities without exception. Death of Shias the priority..Slide26

Salafism – salafis (followers)

Believes on returning to the Islam of old.

The Sunni wing of Jihadism it originally wanted to modernise Islam along European line and criticised the Ottomans for not doing so.

European colonialism changed it into a puritanical revivalist movement bent on the purification of Islam.

All non Salafis are heretics according to the Salafis.

In that sense it is a millenarian sect that is a movement that believes in a major transformation of society when all things will be changed.

Al Qaeda attempts to rein them in and prevent Zarqawi from doing too much damage.

Zawahiri ( who succeeded Bin Laden in Al Qaeda) warned the mujahidin to:

refrain from killing non-combatant women and children… from harming Muslims by explosions, killing [or] kidnapping… [and] from targeting enemies in mosques, markets and gatherings where they mix with Muslims or those who do not fight us.Slide27

unhappy, a loner, a psychopath and dead.Slide28

A foreign jihadist profile

Most are male between 18 -29 years of age.

Mostly second generation of settlers abroad.

Few have military experience. Have to be taught from scratch which is why the like IS because they are seen as more professional.

Women most adept at spreading the message via social media

Most from Tunisia and Saudi Arabia – bored teenage Saudis.

More brutal than the home grown jihadists.

Most are converts

Most travel there in groups

Characterised by feelings of humiliation

Shamed by marginalisation and exclusion

An extreme desire for attention

Process – humiliation – enraged – new identity – weak becomes strong – rage – conviction – spiritual intoxication.Slide29

Where the foreign fighters come from.Slide30

Where their weapons come from

Most from the US or Saudi Arabia funnelled through Turkey for anti Assad forces inside Syria. Gets waylaid.

Much of the rest from Iraqi security forces post 2014. 25 countries armed Iraq where it was lost due to corruption or abandonment.

Often within two months of leaving the factory

Improvised explosives make with Industrial chemicals bought direct from the factories in Turkey.

Strong links to armaments manufacturers in Eastern Europe.

IS set up weapons factories in Mosul, Falluja and Tikrit – mainly to make mortar shells.

Ammunition has Chinese, Russian , Sudanese and Iranian markings.

Anti tank missiles from MDBA. (BAE, Marconi and EADS (Airbus)Slide31

Islamic State brutality

Eventually it drives the civilian population away like the Taliban in Afghanistan.

IS has become synonymous with beheadings, crucifixions, stonings, massacres, burying victims alive and religious and ethnic cleansing. It does so to weaken the resolve of the opposition.

 It is a conscious decision to terrorise enemies and impress and co-opt new recruits.

War without limits or constraints. IS' sophisticated outreach campaign appeals to disaffected and deluded young Sunnis worldwide because it is seen as a powerful vanguard that delivers victory and salvation.

According to ISIS, violence has to be steady and escalatory to continue to shock and deter. Random acts of violence are not enough in this context. Brutality has to be ever more savage, creative and shocking … It is important to emphasise that ISIS increases the level of its savagery at critical moments, rather than ad hoc.

Al Qaeda opposes this brutality.

Occupation of conquered territory policed by outsiders who joined IS who are prepared for the task.Slide32

Islamic State funding

IS does a corporate budget. It is run like a business. Sells what it can.

According to a 2015 study by the Financial Action Taskforce, ISIL's five primary sources of revenue are as followed (listed in order of significance):

proceeds from the occupation of territory (including control of banks, oil and gas reservoirs, taxation, extortion, and robbery of economic assets)

kidnapping for ransom

..

material support provided by foreign fighters

fundraising through modern communication networks

[

Sponsorship – disguised as payment for freeing hostages.

Worth about $2billion mostly from capture of Mosul.Slide33

IS areas of influence and supportSlide34

Does terrorism work for IS?

Generally not although Spain did withdraw its troops from Iraq in 2004 after the Madrid railway bombings.

Usually has the opposite effect – France upped its forces after the Paris attacks.

IS is losing territory and revenue because it has made so many enemies.

Brutality also attracts new recruits.

No, because no single state supports it.

But.... Perhaps the IS aim is not to be popular but to provoke the US into striking back to fulfil the prophecy and to lead to the final battle.

The joy in IS when the false rumour that US troops were in Syria appeared.

Casualties do not matter because they are either unbelievers or holy warriors who will get the benefits of paradise early. Slide35

The importance of Mosul

Has been the IS de facto capital since 2014 when took it in a few days.

Left behind large cache of arms and $500 million in the bank of Mosul.

Now under attack by Iraqi army/ Peshmergas/ US advisors. Started in March of 2016. Still not anywhere near completion.

2 million people the majority of who are Sunnis and Kurds.

Vital transport hub between Turkey and Syria.

Mosul control NW Iraq for IS. Its loss would have IS stranded in Syria

Loss of Mosul would be the end of the Caliphate?

Huge propaganda disaster for IS and would isolate the militias.

Raqqa in Central Syria the de facto IS capital – hard to take – Kurds and Turks would have to co-operate and victory would leave them isolated in a sea of Assad supporters and the Russian military.Slide36

After Mosul

The looming loss of the grand mosque in Mosul It was in the Grand Mosque that the group’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, announced the new “caliphate” in July 2014. Now down to West Mosul and once it had 5 to 6 million people from Iran to the Mediterranean Sea

A war of attrition in densely packed city – campaign started in October 2016.

As IS goes on the back foot in Mosul it opens up other campaign to the south as well as attack on Kabul hospital.

IS going to guerrilla war – state relying heavily now on Shia militias and Iranian revolutionary guards. Mosul is mainly Sunni. Will Shia/Sunni conflict give them a second lease of life?

Provoke Trump into making a rash move?Slide37

MosulSlide38

Mosul DamSlide39

How has terrorism changed the world?

The US spends $16bn annually countering it. Australia $630 million

US spent $1.6 trillion since 9/11 on the war against terrorism – greater than what the Korean or Vietnam war cost.

More a fear than a threat?

More likely to die of any other cause?

Terrorism dominates the public sphere - If terrorists were killing one Australian each and every week, a state of national emergency would be declared. Domestic violence does that!

Get used to it like the Israelis? London mayor says the same.

Security at Airports (even Albury), avoiding public gatherings, Sports fixtures etc – tourism down.

A good result for terrorists for little expenditure.Slide40

Security and the costSlide41

The future of Islamic State

It has lost between one third and a quarter of its territory in the last year. It has lost Tikrit, Ramada and Falluja but it has done so before in 2008.

If it becomes stateless it could

:

Activate its fighters already in Europe (between 1 and 2 thousand?)

It is expanding its criminal network smuggling marijuana from the Balkans in to Europe.

Create a scorched earth policy in Iraq that the government cannot or will not spend money on. The basis for future Shia - Sunni confrontation?

Move from defending territory to active aggressive insurgency.

More “lone wolves” who are Islamised malcontents and criminals. Remote control , drones and toy car bombs

What happened in Nice, Paris, Brussels, Istanbul, Orlando or in San Bernardino is a growing indication of how Islamic State and other jihadist organizations will fight their war with western society in the future.

Leadership lost to drones in increasing numbers.Slide42

Islamic State and Trump

Tillerson working hard against Flynn’s characterisation of Islam as a “malignant cancer”.

IS initially waited for Trump to make a mess of it.

IS – flow of foreign fighters all but stopped – an outcome of the Obama strategy.

IS using civilians as human shield forcing them into buildings in Mosul and then provoking an attack.

Propaganda by IS rarely now seen.

Trump gives generals greater freedom re air strikes etc.

Attacks by the US and other s on Raqqa in Syria the IS capital.

Attitude to Iran an distraction from fight against IS?

Al Baghdadi has left Mosul?Slide43

Dabiq and KobaneSlide44

Is Islamic State finished?

Fighter are leaving. Cities are lost, money dries up.

After the loss of Dabiq, supporters of Isis have already begun denying the importance of holding land in Iraq and Syria, emphasising instead their operations in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. 

an increased focus on directly attacking western countries, rather than encouraging recruits to migrate to Iraq and Syria.

Keep going like the Taliban in Afghanistan?

Move elsewhere? The Sinai – Africa?

None

of the other franchises are doing well though.

high-risk movements that attempt to realize the unrealizable have a short shelf life. Like the anarchist at the turn of the 20

th

century

?

Mired in their fight with the Shia?Slide45

Area controlled by Islamic State – end March 2017

IS controls tenuously linked cities –easy to take piecemealSlide46

And some last telling comments

On 13 August this year, 

the town of Manjib in Northern Syria was liberated from Islamic State control.

After the last fighter left, the town erupted: men sat on street corners, cutting off each other's beards; women tore off their face veils and set fire to them; an old woman lit a cigarette and laughed through the smoke.

Previously, all of this was banned by IS.

When Iraqi security forces retook eastern Mosul from Islamic State (IS) in early January, they made sure to raise the national flag at a strategic point. No, it was not a military position. Rather, the flag went up at Mosul University, which was once one of the premier educational institutions in the Middle East.Slide47

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