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Get the essential business and data analytics skills and technologies to Get the essential business and data analytics skills and technologies to

Get the essential business and data analytics skills and technologies to - PowerPoint Presentation

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Get the essential business and data analytics skills and technologies to - PPT Presentation

stay ahead of the curve Uncover new information and value to remain competitive 4 tracks designed to follow the Analysts Journey May 24 San Jose California Register at passbaconferencecom ID: 914352

business model analytics data model business data analytics models excel power results risk analytic optimization simulation analysis solver tools

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Slide1

Get the essential business and data analytics skills and technologies to

stay ahead of the curveUncover new information and value to remain competitive4 tracks designed to follow the Analyst’s Journey

May 2-4, San Jose, California

Register

at

passbaconference.com

today

!

(Use

discount

code

BAMARA

for

$100 off

registration)

Slide2

PASS Virtual Chapters for BusinessAnalytics

www.sqlpass.org/vcFREE ONLINE LEARNING

Slide3

DANIEL FYLSTRAPresident of Frontline SystemsDeveloper of Solver in Excel

25 Years in Advanced AnalyticsData/Text Mining - XLMinerOptimization – Premium SolverSimulation – Risk SolverMarketer of VisiCalc, the FirstSpreadsheet on Apple II3

www.facebook.com/FrontlineSolvers

twitter.com/

FrontlineSolver

www.linkedin.com/company/frontline-systems-inc

Slide4

Advanced Analytics for Excel Users: Learn How to Do It YourselfDaniel Fylstra

, Frontline Systems

Slide5

5Goals for Today’s Session

Know how Analytics builds on Business IntelligenceKnow why you’d build an analytic model: business payoffsKnow what kinds of results you can get from analytic modelsKnow how you’d build your own analytic model, and howto get data into your modelKnow what to do next, if you want to learn

Slide6

6How Analytics Builds on Business Intelligence

“Analytics are a subset of … business intelligence: a set of technologies and processes that use data to understand business performance … The questions that analytics can answer represent the higher-value and more proactive end of this spectrum.” – Tom Davenport, Competing on Analytics

Slide7

7Analytics: The Three Levels

Descriptive Analytics: Classic BIQuantitative Assessment of Past Business ResultsStatistics, Exploratory Data Analysis, VisualizationPredictive AnalyticsQuantitative Methods to Predict New OutcomesForecasting, Prediction, Classification, AssociationPrescriptive AnalyticsQuantitative Methods to Make Better DecisionsDecision Trees, Monte Carlo Simulation, Optimization

Slide8

8Why Build Analytic Models: Example Payoffs

Two Frontline Systems Customer ExamplesExcel model to optimally deploy 83 employees with different skill sets across 24 stations saved $1.9 million per year in overtime.Excel simulation model showed major chemical company why a plant was missing goals, and how to solve the problem without any new investment.U.S. Air Force Air Logistics CenterC-5 Galaxy transport maintenance hub reduced turnaround time from 360 to 160 days,

saving taxpayers $50 million and saving soldiers’ lives.

Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer CenterOptimizing radiation beams reduced side-effects of treating cancer –

improving quality of life

and

saving

$

459 million per

year on prostate cancer alone.

Slide9

9Can This Help in Your Work or Career?

Optimization models can deliver huge cost savingsSimulation/risk analysis models can help avoid disasterBut very few business analysts have the skills to do thisIf you can do this, your value to your company will riseSome analytic models address operations, others address strategic decisionsEx. whether to build a new plant, and where to locate itBe prepared to present your work to senior management

Slide10

10Descriptive Analytics: Excel & Power BI

Key task: Data access / shaping – Power Query does thisExcel + Power Pivot data model holds Past Business ResultsPivot charts, Power View, Power BI for data visualizationFormulas: Sum, Count, Average, Min, Max, Var, StdDev

Slide11

11Predictive Analytics: Data Mining

Key tasks: Data shaping, applying predictive modelsData mining algorithms “fit” analytic model to past dataTrained/fitted models are applied to newly arriving dataClassify: ex. Good/Poor credit risk, Likely/Unlikely to churnPredict: ex. stock price, house price, exchange rateForecast a time series: ex. next sales from past sales historyAssociate: ex. People who bought this item also bought...Tools: Azure ML, XLMiner, Predixion, SAS, SPSS, R, others

Slide12

12Prescriptive Analytics: Optimization, Simulation

Key task: Create a model – A person (you) must do thisModel must capture essential features of the business situationLarger models often get their data from BI / Descriptive AnalyticsA “What If” model is the starting point – Excel is a natural tool!Given an appropriate model, we can:Ask “What are all the possible outcomes?” – simulation/risk analysisAsk “What’s the best outcome we can achieve?” – optimizationTools: Solver,

Risk Solver, @RISK, Crystal Ball, IBM, SAS, others

Slide13

13Results from an Analytic Model

Results from a data mining model:Tool to classify or predict outcomes for new casesAssessment of accuracy / predictive powerResults from a simulation model:Full range of outcomes and their likelihoodSensitivity analysis of input parameters vs. outcomesResults from an optimization model:Best attainable objective, values for decision variablesSensitivity analysis of decision variables & constraints

Slide14

14Data Mining: What You Need, How You Do It

What You Need: Tools toAccess / shape data, explore / visualize dataTrain / “fit” models to data: machine learning Validate model results: statistics, Lift / ROC curves How You Do ItData “wrangling” / cleaning is usually the first stepUse feature selection to identify variables that matterTry multiple algorithms: Regression, trees, neural netsAssess and think about results: Avoid over-fitting

Slide15

15Simulation: What You Need, How You Do It

What You Need: Tools toCreate a “what if” model, calculating results of interestDefine probability distributions for uncertain inputs Run Monte Carlo simulation, create statistics and charts How You Do ItDefine distributions by fitting data, or industry practiceDefine dependence among inputs: corr. matrices, copulasRun simulation, or multiple simulations with parametersAssess and think about results: stats, histograms, scatterplots

Slide16

16Optimization: What You Need, How You Do It

What You Need: Tools toCreate a “what if” model, calculating results of interestDefine decision variables for inputs under your controlDefine constraints and an objective to max / minimizeRun an optimization for optimal values, sensitivity analysis How You Do ItDefine constraints for limited resources, physical conditions, policiesUnderstand dependence between outputs and inputs: linear / nonlinear Run optimization, or multiple optimizations with parameters you varyAssess and think about results: understand “dual values,” sensitivity

Slide17

17Can This Help in Your Work or Career?

Optimization models can deliver huge cost savingsSimulation/risk analysis models can help avoid disasterBut very few business analysts have the skills to do thisIf you can do this, your value to your company will riseSome analytic models address operations, others address strategic decisionsEx. whether to build a new plant, and where to locate itBe prepared to present your work to senior management

Slide18

18Where to Learn More: Textbooks on Amazon

Cliff Ragsdale Spreadsheet Modeling 7th EdPowell & Baker Management Science 4th EdCamm et al Essentials of Business AnalyticsJames Evans Business Analytics

Slide19

19Where to Learn More: Online Courses and Tools

www.edx.orgwww.coursera.orgwww.solver.comwww.xlminer.com

Slide20

20Free Tools to Get Started in Excel and Excel Online

Excel: Power Query, Power Pivot, Power View, SolverPower BI: Free account, Power BI DesignerExcel Online Office Add-ins: Solver, Risk Solver, XLMiner XLMiner.com, Rason.com: Free accounts

Slide21

Thank You –See You in San Jose!Daniel Fylstra, Frontline Systems

Slide22

Like What You Heard?Daniel

Fylstra will be presenting at thePASS Business Analytics Conference 2016!Pre-Conference Session (full day)Advanced Analytics for Excel Users: Learn How to Do it YourselfBreakout Session (60 min)Prescriptive Analytics: Decision Models with Real Business Payoffs

Slide23

23

Access to online training and contentEnjoy discounted event ratesJoin Local Chapters and Virtual Chapters Get advance notice of member exclusives

PASS is a not-for-profit organization which offers year-round learning opportunities to data professionals

Membership is free, join today

at

www.sqlpass.org

JOIN

PASS