Should We Panic or Celebrate UNDERSTANDING THE LCFSRIN CREDIT PRICE February 2016 The Federal Renewable Fuels Standard The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard RFS Program Overview Obligated parties under the RFS program are refiners or importers of gasoline or diesel fuel Compliance is a ID: 493402
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LCFS Credit Prices Are Rising.
Should We Panic or Celebrate?
UNDERSTANDING THE
LCFS/RIN CREDIT PRICE
February 2016Slide2
The Federal Renewable Fuels StandardSlide3
The California Low Carbon Fuel StandardSlide4
RFS Program Overview
Obligated parties under the RFS program are refiners or importers of gasoline or diesel fuel. Compliance is achieved by blending renewable fuels into transportation fuel, or by obtaining credits (called “Renewable Identification Numbers”, or RINs) to meet an EPA-specified Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO).
EPA calculates and establishes RVOs every year through rulemaking, based on the CAA volume requirements and projections of gasoline and diesel production for the coming year. The standards are converted into a percentage and obligated parties must demonstrate compliance annually.
RINs are generated when a producer makes a gallon of renewable fuel
At the end of the compliance year, obligated parties use RINs to demonstrate compliance
RINs can be traded between partiesObligated parties can buy gallons of renewable fuel with RINs attached. They can also buy RINs on the market
Obligated parties can carry over unused RINs between compliance years. They may carry a compliance deficit into the next year. This deficit must be made up the following year.Slide5
LCFS Credit Prices and Retail Fuel Prices Are
not CorrelatedEnvironmental Attribute prices (LCFS Credits) have had no measurable impact on retail fuel prices
Price volatility for RINs/LCFS Credits have been mostly seen in/absorbed by gains and losses within the industry – not consumer prices
Given the scale of (crude vs. LCFS) cost inputs and the $200 price cap – LCFS credits should remain a nearly-invisible factor in retail fuel prices relative to global prices for crude oil
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http://ajw-inc.com/Slide6
Environmental Attribute prices (RINs) have had no measurable impact on retail fuel prices
In 2013, RIN prices increased by 2,500% while retail fuel prices
fell
Fuel prices have fallen during the periods of steepest RIN price increases
Global oil – not RIN – prices are the primary factor influencing retail fuel prices
RIN Prices and Retail Fuel Prices Are not Correlated
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http://ajw-inc.com/Slide7
Jessica Mitchell - Head of Global Investor Relations: Thanks, Lucas. And we'll go now to Colin Smith of VTB.
Colin Smith - VTB Capital, Research Division: On a completely different subject... I wondered if you could talk a little bit about how you're positioned against doing renewable fuel obligations and the RINs problems that have been developing in the U.S., particularly with respect to next year where the targets look impossible to meet?http://ajw-inc.com/
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BP Management Discusses Q2 2013 Results – Earnings Call Transcript
July 30 2013
Good question…Slide8
BP Management Discusses Q2 2013 Results
– Earnings Call Transcript July 30 2013
Jessica Mitchell - Head of Global Investor Relations:
Thanks, Lucas. And we'll go now to Colin Smith of VTB.Colin Smith - VTB Capital, Research Division: On a completely different subject... I wondered if you could talk a little bit about how you're positioned against doing renewable fuel obligations and the RINs problems that have been developing in the U.S., particularly with respect to next year where the targets look impossible to meet?
Iain C. Conn – Chief Executive of Refining & Marketing and Executive Director: This is Iain. I mean, we're quite well-positioned in the short term on RINs. We're actually net long RINs and so we've been able to trade into this spike recently and have done quite well out of it.
I'm very pleased about that. Over time, we're going to see that position become more balanced and will be neutral against the RINs position in a couple of years' time. But certainly, I'm rather relieved that we don't have some of the RIN obligations attached to the Southwest coast in Texas City at the moment because that would have probably been quite costly in the first half.
Robert W. Dudley – Group Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director:
And Iain, it's fair. We produce ethanol. We make ethanol and bioethanol in Brazil, which is part of why we're able to be in the spot we're in.
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http://seekingalpha.com/article/1599482-bp-benefits-from-expensive-rins-in-q2Slide9
Prices for environmental attributes (RINs/LCFS Credits) fluctuate in response to ordinary supply & demand dynamics.
Even dramatic swings in RIN and LCFS prices do not cause measurable price impacts for retail fuel consumers. [See slides 3&4]Price volatility for RINs/LCFS Credits have been mostly seen in/absorbed by gains and losses within the industry – not in consumer prices. [See slide 5]
LCFS Credit prices are capped at $200. When more low-carbon fuel/LCFS Credits are needed for compliance, prices will rise toward the cap.When the supply of credits is sufficient for compliance, competition will drive credit prices lower.
http://ajw-inc.com/
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