George W Divine H James Norton Website wwwjimnortonphdcom What went wrong with Executive Order No 11497 signed by President of the United States 26 November 1969 The Director of the Selective Service shall establish a random selection sequence for induction The first s ID: 537294
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Slide1
What went wrong with the draft lottery?
George W. Divine
H. James Norton
Website:
www.jimnortonphd.com
Slide2
What went wrong with
Executive Order No. 11497,signed by President of the United States,26 November 1969?
“The Director of the Selective Service shall establish a random selection sequence for induction. … The first sequence shall determine the order of selection of registrants (other than delinquents or volunteers). … A random sequence number established for a registrant shall be equivalent, for purposes of selection, to the same random sequence number established for other registrants in other drawings.”Slide3
The order of selection was determined by the man’s birthday.
The lottery was held during the Vietnam war.To be eligible to be drafted, a person had to be male, of a certain age range (men born between 1944 and 1950), and deemed to be physically and mentally fit. Certain men were given deferments if they requested and met certain conditions. Examples of deferments that could be granted included family hardship, religious objections, attending college, married, or for certain occupations.Slips of paper numbered from 1 to 366 were placed into capsules.
The numbers represented the 366 days of the year (including February 29).
A televised lottery was conducted on December 1, 1969.
If the first capsule selected contained the number 1, then men eligible to be drafted into the US armed forces born on January 1 would be the first drafted.
If the first capsule selected contained the number 366, then men eligible to be drafted into the US armed forces born on December 31 would be the first drafted.
The following links contain the results for the lotteries from 1969 to 1972:
The links gives the data set in tab-separated text format and comma-separated text format. These are standard formats that can be imported into most statistical and spreadsheet software.
www.math.uah.edu/stat/data/Draft.txt
www.math.uah.edu/stat/data/Draft.csvSlide4
Drawing the first number for the Draft Lottery
December 1, 1969Slide5
Month
001-122
123-244
245-366
Jan
9
12
10Feb71210Mar51016Apr8814May9715Jun11712Jul12712Aug13711Sep10155Oct 9157Nov 12126Dec17104
Lottery Numbers By thirds* & by months
Prior to the lottery, it was thought that men with lottery numbers 1-122 would be drafted,
numbers 123-244 might be drafted, and 245-366 would not be drafted.Slide6
r = -.226
p < 0.001Slide7
Kruskal-Wallis test
p = 0.007Slide8
Comparing lottery numbers from
January - June vs. July – December
1-122
123-366
Jan - June
49 (26.9%)
133 (73.1%)
July - Dec73 (39.7%)111 (60.3%)chi-square = 6.69, p= 0.0097Slide9
The sequence of birthdates chosen by the lottery does not seem random.There are a number of stories and conjectures concerning the apparent lack of random draw.Despite protests, the order of men to be drafted was determined by the sequence chosen in the lottery of December 1, 1969.Slide10
The next year (1970), The National Bureau of Standards was asked to devise the method for determining the sequence the random sequence of birthdays.
The results of this drawing are also available on the links provided on an earlier slide and students could compare the results between the 1969 lottery and the 1970 lottery.Slide11
From: Statistics Concepts and Controversies by David Moore