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Gabriel Lojero, Mike Thomas, and  Nick Gliozzi, Gabriel Lojero, Mike Thomas, and  Nick Gliozzi,

Gabriel Lojero, Mike Thomas, and Nick Gliozzi, - PowerPoint Presentation

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Uploaded On 2016-04-21

Gabriel Lojero, Mike Thomas, and Nick Gliozzi, - PPT Presentation

Lessons Learned HPC Surface Analysis Monday 12Z Forecast Concern Precip Type 850 mb Analysis Monday 12z Forecast Concern Precip Type 850 mb Analysis Tuesday 00z National Radar 1130Z National Radar 1830Z ID: 286552

12z snow reported verification snow 12z verification reported sleet winds nohrsc precipitation surface procedure reports theory rain totals freezing 30z data verifying

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Presentation Transcript

Slide1

Gabriel Lojero, Mike Thomas, and Nick Gliozzi,

Lessons LearnedSlide2

HPC Surface Analysis, Monday 12ZSlide3

Forecast Concern- Precip Type

850 mb Analysis, Monday 12zSlide4

Forecast Concern- Precip Type

850 mb Analysis, Tuesday 00zSlide5

National Radar 11:30ZSlide6

National Radar 18:30ZSlide7

National Radar 00:30ZSlide8

Verification Procedure

Eliminated all Zero Categories

- Easy: Dust (14), smoke (16), Wind Chill(18,19), Flood Categories (21-24), Big Snows (5,6,7,8), and Severe Weather(27), and IceStorm (11) - Lightning (25) was ruled out based on PSU lightining data on ewall - Visibilities from ASOS reports were > 0.5 mile (17) Slide9

Verification Procedure

The Search for High and Severe Winds

- used Mesonet and ASOS reports and none reported winds greater than 15 kts so Snow Squall (3), High Winds (12), and Severe Winds (13) were neglected. - Even though there were 50-60kt winds at 850 mb, the layer between the surface and 850 mb was stable, not conducive for mixing to the surface.Slide10

Verifying Snow Totals

Flurries: 18z 13

th – 12z 14th using NOHRSC interactive snow information and metarsSnow Shower and Light Snow 12z 13th – 12z 14th with same methodWere there moderate snow totals?Eliminated Snow Squall, Heavy Snow, Very Heavy Snow, and Blizzard based on snow totals and other criteriaSlide11

Verifying Snow Totals

12z 13

th – 12z 14thNOHRSC interactive snow informationSlide12

Flurries

All zones that received measurable snowfall and zones that traced snow after 18z using NOHRSC and

metarsSlide13

Snow Shower

Verified using NOHRSC 12z-12zSlide14

Light Snow

Verified using NOHRSC 12z-12zSlide15

Was there Moderate Snow?Slide16

Was there Moderate Snow? (Cont.)Slide17

SLEETSlide18

Where was there sleet?

Trained spotter reports sleet.

KLRF reported ice pellets. KPOF, just across border, reported ice pellets. Slide19

Confirming Sleet: Theory

KSRC

KARGKHKASlide20

Confirming Sleet: TheorySlide21

Where was there sleet?

Theory ConfirmedSlide22

Sleet Verification Slide23

FREEZING RAINSlide24

Where was there Freezing Rain?

Trained spotter reports FR.

KLIT reported FR. KPOF, just across border, reported FR. KRUE in zone 22 reported FR.

KMEM reported FRSlide25

Where was there Freezing Rain?

Theory ConfirmedSlide26

Freezing Rain Verification Slide27

Freeze/Frost

Verified using METARSSlide28

Verification Procedure

Searching for Precipitation >= 0.5 inchesSlide29

Verification Procedure

Precip >= 0.50 Inches Verification

Zones 23-24, 32-33, 44, 63-64, 68-69, and 73-75Slide30

T>40

 F

3939393941414143

4040Slide31

T>40

 F Verification Slide32

Lessons Learned

Always look at a sounding to analyze stability parameter to determine if strong winds from aloft can mix down to the surface

.

Always look at observations first to determine the most likely precipitation type during a future time period

.

Verifying Precipitation amount:

Mesonet

and

Cocorahs

ASOS stations do not have a brain (UP = Unknown Precipitation) . Our job to go through the data to determine what actually happened.

You can use soundings and visibilities to get a good idea of the type of precipitation.

GARP = Confusing interface...but great data.