PPT-Reasoning with Uncertainty

We have only examined knowledge that is truefalse or truth preserving but the world is full of uncertainty we need mechanisms to reason with that uncertainty We find two forms of uncertainty unsure input. Jake Blanchard. Spring 2010. Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers. 1. Introduction. We’ve discussed single-variable probability distributions. This lets us represent uncertain inputs. But what of variables that depend on these inputs? How do we represent their uncertainty?. - Charles Sanders Peirce. Using Models of Reasoning. A Return to Logos. Reasoning from Specific Instances. Progressing from a number of particular facts to a general conclusion. .. This is also known as inductive reasoning.. Readings. Readings. Baye. 6. th. edition or 7. th. edition, Chapter 3. BA 445 Lesson A.4 Uncertainty. Overview. Overview. Overview. BA 445 Lesson A.4 Uncertainty. Expected Value . distinguishes good decisions from good luck. Gambling with positive expected value virtually guarantees . Manipulating symbols. Last class. Typology of signs. Sign systems. Symbols. Tremendously important distinctions for informatics and computational sciences. Computation = symbol manipulation. Symbols can be manipulated without reference to content (syntactically. in the Defense Budget. Todd Harrison. Delays in Defense Appropriations Bills. 2. Average Delay FY77-FY13: . 43 days. Average Delay FY10-FY13: . 134 days. Budgetary Uncertainty. 3. Budgetary Uncertainty. Panel Discussion. Lynn H. Pottenger, PhD, DABT. The Dow Chemical Company. Uncertainty Workshop Focus:. Focus on identification of sources & communication of uncertainty in a risk assessment. Not how to measure. Joseph B. Kadane. Carnegie Mellon University. kadane@stat.cmu.edu. “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future”. Niels. Bohr. Robert Storm Peterson. Yogi Berra. Samuel Goldwyn. Mark Twain. by Angela Campbell, Ph.D. and Andrew Cheng, Ph.D.. ICRAT. Angela Campbell, Ph.D.. June 21, 2016. The findings and conclusions in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the FAA. in Measurement. (IB text - Ch 11; AP text - section 1.4 pgs. 10-13 and A10-A13). All measurements have some degree of . uncertainty. . Therefore, we need to give some indication of the reliability of measurements and the uncertainties in the results calculated from these measurements. . Marcia McNutt. Editor-in-Chief. Science . family of Journals. Challenges with scientific uncertainty ...... Public perception that if scientists express uncertainty, they “don’t know they are talking about.”. OUTLINE. Accelerator Pre-alignment background. Uncertainty and GUM supplement 1. PACMAN pre-alignment budgeting . CMM uncertainty modeling. Thermal uncertainty compensation and modeling. First stochastic modeling results. Accuracy vs. Precision. What is the difference?. Accuracy vs. Precision. Precision . accuracy. Exactness. Divisions on scale. Reproducibility. Uncertainty. Significant digits. Correctness. Calibration. Africa Regional Workshop on the Building of Sustainable National. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Management Systems, and the use of the 2006. IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Swakopmund. Erzo F. P. Luttmer. Andrew A. Samwick. Dartmouth College and NBER. March 2017. Motivating Question. Future government policy is subject to uncertainty. How costly is this uncertainty?. When does policy uncertainty matter most?.