International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering - PDF document

International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering Website: www.ijetae.com ( ISSN 2250 - 2459 , Volume 2, Issue 10, October 2012) 23 Study of Electric Vehicle De mand in Bangkok and its Vicinities: A C ase of Motorcycle Taxis S. Pullteap 1 , P. Jaruyanon 2 Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Industrial Technology , Silpakorn University, Nakhon Phathom, 73000, Tha iland Abstract — The use of stated preference ( SP ) s urvey ed data of the motorcycle taxi riders in Bangkok and its vicinities has been investigated i n this paper . A research aim is, preliminary, detailed in terms of the affect factors of the motorcycle betw een the internal combustion engine vehicle and the electric vehicle for public transport. With 1,200 surveyed data, the results show that 91.1% of the taxi riders are men and also the earning cost is obtained of ~ 500 - 600 Bath/day. Moreover, 85.1 % of the SP surveyed dat a shows that the riders do not need to use the electric motorcycle as a taxi . It cause s to high price, vehicle speed, lifetime, compatible for electricity charging and also duration to charg e . Furthermore , the multiple regression equation h as also been employed to verify the reliability of survey ed data. The result show s that 98.94% percent of the data analysis is reliable . Keywords — E lectric v ehicle, motorcycle taxis riders , multiple linear regression equation, public t ransportation , intern al combustion e ngine . I. I NTRODUCTION Nowa day s , motorcycle taxi is an importance part for the transportation , especially in capital town or big city . However, most motorcycle taxis are , currently, using an internal combustion engine that the air pollution eff ect s have been exploited . To eliminate such problem, many technologists have attempted to find out the solution to improve them, such as development of hybrid technology, electric vehicle, hydrogen technology etc. Unfortunately , the air effect is still occ urred when the hybrid and hydrogen technologies have been operated . In the opposite way , the electric vehicle uses only the electricity for gear control ling / motors driving , lead s to such effect can be destroyed . The electric v ehicle or called ― EV ‖ is a no vel technology, which has thus been developed for compensat ing the demand to use fossil fuel s around the world [ 1] - [4]. Consequently , the re are several manufacturers , currently, have attempt to promote the EV into the world market s , for examples Myers Moto rs , ZAP Electric Vehicles , and Honda Motors etc. [ 5] . This technology , however, is still n ot popular enough for the consumers, due to high price of batter y, limited of the driving distance , and also long duration for battery charging etc. To increase the demand of consumer , manufactures have to make an effort to reduce such problem s . As reported by Carson and Gao [ 6 ], [ 7 ] who are using the ultra - capacitors accompany with the batteries to increase the acceleration in the electric motorcycles . This is an exa mple technique for improving the effect of the distance limitation . In addition, the powerful of battery for the hybrid motorcycles has then been studied by Zheng [ 8 ]. By comparing the battery efficiency in two statuses (with/without capacitor included), t he current stability can thus be exploited . Furthermore, the energy storage from the vehicle breaking has also been investigated by Clarke [ 9 ] . The results were shown that t he breaking energy has directly been charged to the battery, lead s to the reduction of energy losses and also improving to the distance. In Thailand, the p ublic transportation is an important factor for the people, especi ally in Bangkok and /or its vicinities such as Pathum Than i , Nonthaburi, Samut Prakarn etc. It cause s to most people , in generally, often use the public transport services for daily life ( i.e. the mass rapid t ransit train (MRT), public buses , and also motorcycle taxis etc ) . Several advantages from the use of public transportation s can thus be exploited in terms of reducin g the traffic jam and also eliminating the air pollution effects [10]. However, the us e of motorcycle as the motorcycle taxis in Thailand is not improve d the air pollution problem . It due to the carbon emissions still occurs by the two or four - stroke motor cycle s. T he EV is , therefore, the best choice for eliminating such effect due to no carbon emission exploited. However, the EV is, currently, proposed as a novel innovation for Thai people . We might imply that most people do not know exactly about it and a lso they are not worried enough to care about the pollution effects. In this paper, the demand to use of the EV for the motorcycle taxis in Bangkok and its vicinities areas has preliminary been studied . A questionnaire is designed as a tool for the investi gation purposed . The details are representing in two main parts; general information of responders , and theirs opinion s to use the EV instead of the internal combustion engine motorcycle for the public transportation . International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering Website: www.ijetae.com ( ISSN 2250 - 2459 , Volume 2, Issue 10, October 2012) 24 A multiple linear regression equation has also been operated for statistical analysis. The surveyed results might thus be indicated some factor s that are important to riders for using the EV in the areas as mentioned above . Furthermore, it’s also reflect ed to the economic problems of Thai gov ernment for improving the national markets to use more EV s . II. R ELATED T HEORY A. Electrical Vehicle Compo nent s E lectric vehicle was first designing and develop ing by the Baker Motor Company since 1990 s . A main advantage of EV over the internal combustion engin e can thus be exploited in terms of no carbon emissions occurred due to only use the electric motor to drive the engine [11] . Generally , the EV is consisted of three main part s : electric motor, battery , and electronic controlling unit respectively. A diagr am of the EV can thus be illustrated in Fig. 1. Fig. 1 Main components of electric vehicle - Electric motor has, generally, been employed for driving the electric motorcycle. However, we can observe that the brushless DC motor (BLDC) is often operated in t he EV over the classical DC motor due to long lifetime operation , high speed and also high torque. - Battery is an important component for the EV . It has, generally, been generated 24 V dc for supplying to the electric motor and also electronic devices in the system . - Electronic controlling unit (ECU) is a n electronics circuit that is used for controlling the energy in the electric motorcycle. In addition , the other properties of the EV has thus been summarized in terms of obtaining a maximum speed range of 40 - 70 km/hr, capability to operate to 50 - 70 km for the distance, and also uses 4 - 6 hour for battery recharging . B. Performance of E lectric M otorcycle Compared with Classical M otorcycle The performance of the electric motorcycle over the classical motorcyc le can thus be found in terms of no carbon emissions to the air, no need to use the petrol for supply the engine. However, it also has some drawbacks such as low speed , low acceleration , and high initial investment costs etc [12], [13] . More over, the othe r comparison details between both motorcycles can thus be summarized in Table 1. T ABLE I C OMPARISON PROPERTIES BETWEEN ELECTRIC MOT ORCYCLE AND CLASSICAL MOTORCYCLE Comparison Items Electric Motor Classical Motor Economic Selling price s ~ 40,000 – 80,000 Ba th s Selling prices ~ 30,000 – 45,000 Bath s Environment al Effects Without carbon emission With carbon emissions Energy Supplied by electric power Supplied by fuel such as petrol, or gasohol etc Repairing Complexity to maintenance. Easily to maintenance I n addition , we found that the performance of electric motorcycle , in currently, can further be operated in the distance of ~ 100 kilometers by using only the power consumption of ~ 7 - 8 B ath s, while it has thus been consumed the fuel of 3 - 4 liters or ~100 - 135 Baths for the classical motorcycle . This implies that the electric motorcycle is, normally, more economize d than the classical motorcycle of approximately 13 - 15 times . To improve the low speed effects, a technique of ― in - wheel hub - m otor ‖ [13] has thus been offered to use in the electric motorcycle. With t his technology , the speed s of 8 0 - 10 0 km/hr can thus be achieved . However, it also depends on the weight of the motorcycle. C. M ultiple Linear R egression E quation Multiple linear regression is one of several techniques of the statistic that has often been used to predict a model of the linear relationship between a dependent variable ( y ) and one or more independent variables ( x ) . The details of the regression equation can , basically, be given by [ 14 ] (1) w here a = regression constant b 1 , b 2 , …., b k = m ultiple c orrelation coefficient value k = number of predictor F - test technique has been used to verify the statistical significant of the m ultiple c orrelatio n c oefficient value in (1). It has, also , been used to verify the linearity of the dependent variable versus the independent variables . The F - test equation can thus be followed by Hypothesis : International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering Website: www.ijetae.com ( ISSN 2250 - 2459 , Volume 2, Issue 10, October 2012) 25 (2) w here : F i = statistic al value that used to compare with a critical F value fr o m F distribution table (when i = 1 to k ) b i = multiple correlation coefficient value n = number of samples k = number of predictor The result fro m (2) has , generally, be en used for data comparison with the value that is obtained from the F distribution table [14] . However, when this result is smaller than the F distribution value , it implies that the expression of b i in (1) can thus be ignored. In this paper, we, however, use these equation s to study a n optimal solution for predict ing the demand of electric vehicle for the motorcycle taxi s in Bangkok and its vicinities areas . III. R ESEARCH M ETHODOLOGY In th is paper, a stated preference ( SP ) survey metho d has been operated as a tool for investigating the demand of motorcycle taxis to use the electric vehicle instead of the internal combustion motorcycle . To study the consumers requirement, we preliminary divide t he surveyed d etails into 4 groups : area s to survey, duration to survey, sample quantit y , and question design respectively. A. Areas to S urvey In this research, the surveyed areas have only been pointed in Bangkok and its v icinities such as Pathum Thani, Nonthaburi, Samut Prakarn etc. It cause s too m any people (i.e. students, employers, messengers, etc.) often use the motorcycle taxi on those areas. Moreover, it is a capital city of Thailand, which several companies or industrial factories are taken place. The 1,200 motorcycle taxi rider s are the samp les group that have thus been interviewed and filled the questionnaire . Furthermore , the surveyed areas can next be classified into four sub - areas. It has thus been detailed and also plotted in Fig. 3. Fig. 2 Classification of a reas to survey - Business a reas are , generally, located in the city center of Bangkok that a lot of buildings, department stores and also academic places ha ve thus been established . Most people come to work, study and also shopping in these areas. They are Pathum Wan, Bang Rak, Sath on, Phaya Thai, Chatuchak, Bang Sue, Din Daeng, Huai Khwang, Ratchathewee , and also Yannawa respectively . - Urban areas are the residential areas . Several developed housings are located , due to easily to travel to the business areas. However, the costs of la nd around these areas are very expensive. They are Phra Nakhon, Pom Prap Sattru Phai, Dusit, Samphanthawong, Thon Buri, Bangkok Yai, khlong San, Bangkok Noi , and also Bang Phlat respectively . - Suburban zone are also resident ial areas . However, the costs of the land are cheaper than the previous areas. They are Phra Khanong, Bang Khen, Bang Kapi, Huai Khwang, Bang Khun Thian, Phasi Charoen, Taling Chan, Rat Burana, Lat Krabang, Min Buri, Phawet, Lak Si, Don Mueang, Sai Mai, Lat Phrao and three district of No nthaburi province comprised Muang, Pak Kret , and also Bang Kruai respectively . - Industrial Estate s are mostly established in the vicinities of Bangkok. Many industrial plant s have , generally, been located . This implies that most people such as employers, la bors, or traders are lived around. They are Lardkrabang Industrial Estate, Bangplee Industrial Estate, Bangpoo Industrial Estate, Navanakorn Industrial Estate, Prapadang Industrial Estate, Maharaj Nakorn Industrial Estate, Samut Sakorn Industrial Estate , a nd also Sinsakhon Industrial Estate respectively . International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering Website: www.ijetae.com ( ISSN 2250 - 2459 , Volume 2, Issue 10, October 2012) 26 B. Duration to Survey In this work, we choose two periods of time to survey at 10.00 – 12.00 and 13.30 – 15.30 hrs respectively. There are two reasons to consider that duration: avoiding to rush hour p eriods , and density of consumers respectively . - Avoiding to rush hour periods is an important factor to consider in this research. Due to the effects of traffic jam in Bangkok and its vicinities on that duration (6.00 - 10.00 hr. and 16.00 - 18.00 hr.). To avoid such problem, most people in those areas, therefore, choose the motorcycle taxis to travel over using the private vehicle or public transportation s . - Density of consumers is a following factor from the previous reason that has been considered. Due to the consumer s in Bangkok and its vicinities such as worker s or employer s are often us ing the motorcycle taxis to travel on the rush hour period s for avoiding the traffic problem. This implies that there is high density of the consumers using the taxis on that period , while it , on the other hand, will thus be decreased over that duration. C. S ample Quantity T he database from the department of land transport ( DLT) shown that there are 120,000 motorcycle taxi riders in Bangkok and its vicinities have , currently , been register ed . In this research, the 1,200 samples of the surveyed data have, however , been determined due to compatible to survey, limited of research grant, limited of time etc . As mentioned above , we , however , divide the surveyed areas into 4 sectio ns, therefore, the 300 samples/area have thus been selected for the research. D. Question design In this paper, the question design has been focused in 4 main parts: general information of taxi riders , motorcycle specification , demand factor to buy the moto rcycle, and rider ’s opinion to collect the electric motorcycle respectively. - General information is a part to detail s about the age, g e nder, employment status, educational level, income per day, fuel cost per week , and also service time of the taxi rider s . - Motorcycle specification is a factor for specify ing the requirement of the motorcycle that the rider s need . It includes of several details such as motorcycle model, engine size , shape /dimension , color , price, fuel consumpt ion , maximum speed etc. - Demand factor to buy motorcycle is an important factor for the rider s to choose the motorcycle. It includes of price, color, maintenance costs, speed, fuel consumption , lifetime, and warranty etc . - Rider ’s opinion is a part of the questionnaire to survey the rider ’ s opinion for collect ing the electric motorcycle . Some details of this part are exploited in terms of maximum price acceptable, minimum speed acceptable, shape/dimension, and also color etc . IV. R ESULTS & D ISCUSSION According to the question design in previou s section, the surveyed results show that 91.1% of the rider ’s gender is men while women are the rest. There are two reasons can response this, the first is dangerous for women to rid e the motorcycle in the capital or big city and the latter is complicated to control the speed of motorcycle . Consequently, the surveyed data also shows that 98 % of the riders earn the income over 500 Bath per day during 10 hours for working, while they have to spend 400 - 600 Bath /week for the f uel cos ts respectively. Further more , we found that 92.4 % of the riders often use a speed range of 90 - 120 km / hr , while 5% of the taxi riders use a speed below 90 km / hr . More details of the surveyed data can thus be illustrated in Fig. 3 . Fig. 3 Surveyed data of s peed range o f motor cycle taxi riders In addition, the surveyed data shows that the taxi riders often use the speed range of 60 - 80 kilometers / hour on the road and also 30 - 40 kilometers / hour in the alley areas . T ABLE II D ECISION FACTORS TO U SE E LECTRIC MOTORCYCLE I N B ANGK OK AND ITS VICINITIES Decision factors. Priorities to change/no change F irst S econd T hird F ourth F ifth 1. price 0.6 8.6 28.8 50.3 11.7 2. maximum speed 0.4 2.8 29.3 48.5 19.0 3. fuel cost 1.5 6.3 67.3 19.6 5.3 4. lifetime 0.3 4.3 30.9 53.2 11.3 5. l oudness of motor 6.9 21.4 44.9 22.3 4.5 6. compatible to charge 0.3 1.6 27.1 56.2 14.8 7. duration to charge 0.3 0.9 13.3 65.1 20.4 International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering Website: www.ijetae.com ( ISSN 2250 - 2459 , Volume 2, Issue 10, October 2012) 27 Another surveyed results shows that 85.1% of the publi c rider s do not need to change the own motorcycle to the electric m otorcycle , due to several factors such as price, speed, lifetime , and inconvenience for battery charging etc. This data can thus be summarized in Table 2 . Moreover, there are four reason s have thus been recommended why the riders do not collect the electri c motorcycle. It’s follow ed by : - Battery performance is an important factor that the taxi riders have thus been worried to the electric motorcycle . For example, high price , capacity, and also duration to charge etc . - Speed is a factor to consider due to the electric motorcycle has a maximum speed range of 80 - 100 km / hr , while the classical motorcycle can thus be speeded up to 1 2 0 - 1 4 0 km / hr respectively . - Distance is another factor that has thus been justified for the electric motorcycle efficiency. It dep ends on the capacity of the battery. However, most electric motorcycle s can , generally, be obtained the distance of 60 - 80 kilometers per each charging , while the classical motorcycle obtains the distance of 100 - 120 kilometers per tank (approximately 5 liters). - Price is a parameter that the riders are considered. We might say that the price of the electric motorcycle in Thailand , currently , is still very expensive (about 40 ,000 - 8 0 , 000 Baht) compared with its performance. For the same price, we can, h ow ever, buy a classical motorcycle that has a higher efficiency than the electric motorcycle. Moreover, t he demand and decision factors to buy the electric motorcycle of the motorcycle taxi riders in Bangkok and its vicinities can thus be resulted and plotte d in the figure 4 Fig. 4 Decision factors to buy electric motorcycle of taxi riders We found that the speed capability is a first priority factor (approximately 22%) to the riders for buy ing the electric motorcycle, while the factor of loudness is las t one respectively . This impl ies that the taxi rider’s behavior is more concentrating about the speed than the environmental effects. It might be resulted by the weakness of the traffic’s laws in Thailand and the riders also need more customers for earning the extra money. However, it also very dangerous to themselves and customers , when increase the speed of the motorcycle up . To verify the decision factors that are mentioned above, the linear regression technique has been operated. We first have to defi ne the decision factors as the independent parameters ( x 1 - x 7 ) which are detailed by: x 1 = price x 2 = maximum speed x 3 = fuel cost x 4 = lifetime x 5 = loudness x 6 = compatible to charge x 7 = duration to charge Consequently, the linear regression in ( 1) has consequently been used to verify the parameters. By putting the x 1 - x 7 into (1), the demand to use the electric motorcycle ( y ) or called ― dependent factor ‖ can th us be exploited by : (3) To predict the model of the linear relationship between the dependent variable ( y ) and independent variables ( x ), we a ssume that if y is smaller than 0.5. This means t he riders need to use the electric motorcycle . However, i f y , on the other hand, is more than /or eq ual 0.5, t he riders d o not change to use the electric motorcycle . The surveyed data show that more than 85% of the output y is more than 0.5, while the rest is smaller respectively. In addition, the reliability of the linear regression equation has also be en analyzed. By comparing the output from linear equation in (3) with the surveyed results as mentioned before , the result shows that 98.94% of the analyzed data is reliable . This implies that the independent parameters that used in the questionnaire are a lso reliable. To improve the demand to use the electric motorcycle, the retailers and also government have to make an effort to the taxi riders and/or people who use the motorcycle for understanding and clarifying to the environmental effects from the two or four - stroke motorcycle s. Moreover, the industrial side has attempts to produce the electric motorcycle by themselves. This solution can thus be eliminated the price effects due to reduction of labor cost, import tax, and also maintenance costs etc. International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering Website: www.ijetae.com ( ISSN 2250 - 2459 , Volume 2, Issue 10, October 2012) 28 V. C ONC LUSION In this paper, the demand of electric vehicle for the motorcycle taxi rider s in Bangkok and vicinities has preliminary been investigated. The stated preference s urvey method was operated a s a tool for the data prediction . A questionnaire which separ ated in four main parts; general information, motorcycle specification, demand factor to buy electric motorcycle, and rider’s opinion, has thus been used for data analyzing. With 1,200 surveyed data, w e found that 85.1% of the publi c rider s d id not need to use the electric motorcycle due to long duration to charge, slowly speed, loudness of motor etc. Furthermore , the multiple regression equation has thus been employed for verifying the decision parameters that were used in the questionnaire. The results sh ow that 98.94% of the analyzed data by using the regression technique are reliability. Therefore , the electric motorcycle , now, has n ot still appropriate for public transportation . However, it should , currently, be used for family. A CKNOWLEDGEMENT This pap er is a part of the research fund ing entitled ― Developing Master Plan for Electric - motorcycle Implementation in Public Transport sector ‖. Support ed by the Energy Conservation Promotion Funds, Ministry of Energy , Thailand . REFERENCES [1] K. B. Shue, ―Conceptual design of hybrid scooter transmissions with planetary gear - trains,‖ Applied Energy , vol.84, pp. 526 - 541, 2007. [2] K. 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