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1IntroductionGrowingevidencesuggeststhathistoricalinstitutionscangener 1IntroductionGrowingevidencesuggeststhathistoricalinstitutionscangener

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1EvidencetobearuponthemeritocraticfeaturesofChinascivilexamsystemcanbefoundintheEuropeandiscourseamongthelikesofVoltaireQuesnayandChristianWol11allofwhomvieweditasasuperioralternativetothetradi ID: 824835

1962 columns qingperiod 2006 columns 1962 2006 qingperiod column 2012 2016 cantlypositivee forinstance 2007 forexample china 2014 brokaw voigtl

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1IntroductionGrowingevidencesuggeststhat
1IntroductionGrowingevidencesuggeststhathistoricalinstitutionscangeneratelong-lastinge ectsonmoderneconomicdevelopmenteitherdirectlyorviatheculturaltraitstheyfoster(Acemoglu,Johnson,andRobinson,2001;Dell,2010;Dell,Lane,andQuerubin,2018;Guiso,Sapienza,andZingales,2016;Nunn,2008;NunnandWantchekon,2011;VoigtlanderandVoth,2012,amongothers).China'scivilexamsystemorkejuisonesuchinstitution.Astheearliestmeritocraticinstitutionintheworld(sincetheSongdynasty,c.960-1276),thecivilexamsystemwasaimedatrecruitinglearnedindividualstoserveinthebureaucracy.1Asascholarattainingthehighestquali cationinthecivilexam,thejinshiwouldbemadeascholar-ocial;apositionassociatedwithconsiderableprestige,andreceivedgenerouspecuniaryrewards.Becauseofthis,kejuattractedmillionsofzealousscholars|afervor

intensi edbythelackofrestrictionspla
intensi edbythelackofrestrictionsplaceduponacandidate'ssocialbackgroundandage.2Overtime,thecivilexaminstitutioncreatedadistinctgroupoflocaleliteswithdeeprespectforlearningandacademicachievements(Russell,1922)|a\culturaltrait"thathaspersistedevenlongaftertheexam'sabolishment.Inthispaper,weexaminethepersistentimpactofthecivilexamsystem|aninstitutionof rst-orderimportanceinChinesehistory|ontoday'shumancapitaloutcomes.Ourstudyisinspiredbythestrongpositiverelationshipbetweenaprefecture'ssuccessinthecivilexamasmeasuredbythenumberofjinshiintheMingandQingdynastiesandhumancapitaloutcomesasmeasuredbytheyearsofschoolingtoday(Figure1).3Ourspeci cgoalsaretwofold.First,weattempttoverifywhetherthisrelationshipiscausal.Second,andconditionaluponprovingthecausalrelationship,weendeavortoi

dentifythevariouspossiblechannelsthrough
dentifythevariouspossiblechannelsthroughwhichthise ectendurestothisday,includingaculturalnormofvaluingeducation,schoolsoreducationalinfrastructuremoregenerally,socialcapitalviaclansandothersocialorganizations,andpoliticalelites.[Figure1abouthere]Usingthenumberofjinshiacrossthe278Chineseprefectures(normalizedbytheirpop-ulation)asameasureofthedegreeofsuccessinkejuexam(hereafterjinshidensity),thebaselineordinaryleastsquares(OLS)resultshowsthat,forevery10,000people,adoublingofjinshidensityisassociatedwithanincreaseinyearsofschoolingin2010of7%,whichis1EvidencetobearuponthemeritocraticfeaturesofChina'scivilexamsystemcanbefoundintheEuropeandiscourseamongthelikesofVoltaire,Quesnay,andChristianWol ,allofwhomvieweditasasuperioralternativetothetraditionalEuropeanaristocracyintermsofg

overnance(Ford,1992).Foranempiricalanaly
overnance(Ford,1992).ForanempiricalanalysisoftheemergenceoftheSongcivilexamsystemseeChenandKung(2019).2Women,however,werenotallowedtotakepartinthecivilexam.3AprefecturewasanadministrativeunitbetweentheprovinceandthecountyinimperialChina.1notsmallinlightofthehugegeographicvariationsinjinshidensityacrosshistoricalChina.Thisresultisrobusttotheinclusionofarichgamutofcovariatesincludingaprefecture'seconomicprosperitybothintheMing-Qingperiod(populationdensity,urbanizationrate,andagriculturalsuitability)andtoday(usingnighttimelightsin2010asproxy),andnottheleastgeography(terrainruggednessanddistancetocoast);allwithprovince xede ects.ThevariationinjinshidensityintheMing-QingperiodacrosstheChineseprefecturesisclearlysubjecttomanyendogenousforces,withomittedvariablebiasbeingourprimar

yconcerns.Toaddresstheseissues,weconstru
yconcerns.Toaddresstheseissues,weconstructaninstrumentalvariableusingaprefecture'sshortestriverdistancetoitsnearestsitesofpineandbamboo|thetwokeyingredientsrequiredforproducinginkandpaperinwoodblockprinting.4Distancetothesetworawingredientsisimportantbecausetextbooksandexamaids(referencebooks),whichcontainnuanced,authoritativeinterpretationsoftheConfucianclassics,werecrucialtokejuexamsuccess.Wefurthershowthatourinstrumentalvariableisorthogonaltoahostofmeasuresofhistoricaleconomicprosperity,agriculturalsuitability,geography,andnighttimelightsin2010,anddemonstratethatthelocationsofpineandbambooforests,asnaturalhabitats,areexogenous.Thetwo-stageleastsquares(2SLS)regressionsproduceanestimateconsistentwiththatoftheOLSbutwithasomewhatlargerestimate(byabout24%).Thistimeadoublingofthenumbe

rofjinshi(per10,000people)isassociatedwi
rofjinshi(per10,000people)isassociatedwitha8.7%increaseintheaverageyearsofschoolingtoday.Thisimpliesthatanadditionaljinshiper10,000peopleleadstoanincreaseinschoolingof0.8yearswhenevaluatedatthemeanof8.712.5Inaccountingforthepersistentimpactofthecivilexamwe rsttestthehypothesisthattheexamhadbredacultureofvaluingeducationwhichwasinternalizedbyatleasttheeducatedelitefamilies(andaccordinglytransmittedacrossgenerations).Todosowetakeadvantageofanationallyrepresentativesocialsurvey,the2010ChineseFamilyPanelSurvey(CFPS),andconstructvariablestomeasurethee ectoftherespondents'ancestralachievementsinthejinshiexamontheirattitudestowardtheimportanceoflearningandeducationasadeterminantofsocialstatus.Aftercontrollingforbothgeneticandculturaltransmissionoffamilyhumancapital(asmeasuredbyvar

iousIQtestscores,yearsofed-ucation,andin
iousIQtestscores,yearsofed-ucation,andincome),we ndthatancestraljinshidensity(measuredseparatelyalongthepatrilinealandmatrilineallines)hasasigni cantlypositivee ectontheo spring'sattitudetowardtheimportanceofeducationindeterminingsocialstatus.Moreover,theserespon-dentsalsowantthegovernmenttospendmoreoneducation.Thoserespondentswhowere4Ourinstrumentthustakestheaverageofthetwo(river)distancestoaprefecture'snearestavailablepineandbamboolocations.5AccordingtotheUnitedNations,thedi erenceintheyearsofschoolingbetweenthelow-andmiddle-incomecountriesin2010wasamere1.4years,yettheydi erinannualincomebymorethanthreetimes(2,109versus6,452USD).2parentsexpectedtheirchildrentoreceivemoreeducationingeneral,anddevotedmoretimetosupervisingtheirchildren'shomework(by,forexamp

le,watchinglessTVthemselves).Perhapsbeca
le,watchinglessTVthemselves).Perhapsbecauseofthisstrongerparentalethic,theirchildrenperformedbetterinclass,hadlowerratesofabsenteeism,andspentmoretimestudying.Alloftheseaugurwellwiththehypothesisregardingthetransmissionofacultureofvaluingeducationwithinfamilies.Evenifourinstrumentisvalidforidentifyingthecausale ectofhistoricaljinshi,chancesareitwouldhavemissedtheotherpossiblechannels.Thereasonisthatprefectureswithstrongerexamachievementswerelikelycorrelatedwiththefundingofbetterschoolsoreducationalinfrastructuremoregenerally,betterorganizedintheirprovisionoflocalpublicgoods,andmorecapableofproducingaclassofpoliticalelites,allofwhicha ectedtheincentivestoacquireeducation.Itisthusalsoourgoaltoidentifytheseadditionalchannels.First,totheextentthatsuccessinthecivilexamdependedon

thequalityandquantityofschools,teachers,
thequalityandquantityofschools,teachers,andbooks,andthatprefectureswithgreatersuccessinthecivilexamhistoricallywouldbemoree ectiveinbuildingagoodeducationalinfrastructure,thelatterissurelyanotherlikelychannelofthepersistente ectdocumentedhere.Indeed,we ndthatjinshidensityhasapositivee ectnotjustonthenumberofConfucianacademiesintheMing-Qingperiod,butalsoontheprimaryandsecondaryschoolsestablishedattheturnofthe20thcentury,andmoresigni cantlyontheuniversitiesestablishedbothbeforethefoundingofthePeople'sRepublic(in1947)andinthemorerecenttimes(e.g.,2010).Anotherobviouschannelissocialcapital.Afterall,thosewhopassedthejinshiexaminvariablyenteredocialdomtojoinasmallgroupofeliteswhowouldlikelyinteractwithoneanotherinavarietyofsocialcontextsrangingfromclanandlineagea&

#11;airstocharita-bleorganizations(Elman
#11;airstocharita-bleorganizations(Elman,2000;McDermott,1997).Ashasbeenwelldocumented,socialcapitalisconducivetopublicgoodsprovision(Dell,Lane,andQuerubin,2018;Satyanath,Voigtlander,andVoth,2017).Usingmostlyhistoricalbutalsoasmallamountofcontempo-rarydata,we ndthatjinshidensityhasasigni cantlypositivee ectonthestrengthofclanorlineageorganizationasmeasuredbythenumberofgenealogyeditions(thestrongertheclanthemoreeditions).Likewise,ahigherjinshidensityisalsofoundtobeassociatedwithalargernumberofcharitableorganizationsin1840,andavarietyofsocialorganizationsincludingfarmers'associations,laborunions,chambersofcommerce,women'sassociation-s,educationalandstudentbodies,religiousassociations,charityorganizations,etc.,inthesurveyyearsofboth1935and2008.Allofthesespeaktothepossiblee

xistenceofasocialcapitalchannel.Byvirtue
xistenceofasocialcapitalchannel.Byvirtueoftheirentryintoocialdomuponexamsuccessthejinshiwerealsopoliticalelites.Asmanyofthemwouldreturntotheirhometownsandinvestintheeducationalin-frastructure,theyperpetuatedthesuccessoftheirdescendants.Usingdataonthreedi erent3periodsinChinesehistory,we ndthatjinshidensityhasasigni cantlypositivee ectonthenumberofhigh-rankingocialsinboththelateQingandRepublicaneras,suggestingthepersistencealsoofapoliticalcapitalchannel.Butthise ectvanishedwhenChinaturnedtocommunismandthepoliticaleliteswerenolongercon nedtothosecomingfromaliteratibackground,therebyendingthetransmission.Inthelightofthesemultiplechannelsandthepossibilityoftheirwideningtheinequalitygapsviaunequalaccesstoeducation,wegobeyondthepersistente ectofthec

ivilexaminstitutiononeducationalattainme
ivilexaminstitutiononeducationalattainmentbyexaminingalsoitse ectonsocioeconomicinequal-ityoverthelongrun.Usingsurveyevidence,we ndthatjinshidensityactuallyhasasigni cantlynegativee ectonsocioeconomicinequalitybetweenchildrenandtheirparents'generationintermsofyearsofschoolingandincome.Presumablybecauseastrongerlo-calkejuculturehashadthevirtuouse ectofencouragingcompetitioninaprefecture,thesameinstitutionisrenderedmore\inclusive"inthatprefecturethaninoneswherethesameculturaltraitisnotasstrong.6ByexaminingthepersistentimpactofahugelyimportantChineseinstitutiononhumancapitaloutcomestoday,ourstudycontributesto,butinfactgoesbeyond,theliteraturethatidenti esimportantpatternsofculturalpersistencestemmingfromvariationsinhistor-icalinstitutions(e.g.,AlesinaandFuchs-S

chundeln,2007;Dell,Lane,andQuerubin,201
chundeln,2007;Dell,Lane,andQuerubin,2018;Guiso,Sapienza,andZingales,2016),aswellastotheliteraturethatdelvesintothehistor-icaloriginofculturaltraitsandtheirpersistence(e.g.,Alesina,Giuliano,andNunn,2013;Becker,Boeckh,Hainz,andWoessmann,2016;Grosjean,2014;NunnandWantchekon,2011;VoigtlanderandVoth,2012).Thatis,insteadoffocusingsolelyontheculturalchannel(asGuisoetal.'s[2016]havedoneinanexcellentmanner)butinadi erenthistoricalcontext,wewentfurthertoidentifyanumberofadditionalmechanismsthatmightalsoexplaintheobservedpersistenceinquestion.Ourclaimofacontributionnotwithstanding,thisstudydoeshaveamajorlimitation.Asourcausallinkbetweenthecivilexaminstitutionanditsattendantculturaltraitofvaluingeducationisdrawnfromtheregionalvariationincivilexamsuccess,andbecauseboththecauseandthee

ectaremostsalientatthenationallevel,our&
ectaremostsalientatthenationallevel,our ndings|whilerobust|cannotbeestablishedasdirectevidencetobearuponhowthecivilexamsystema ectedChinaasawhole.7Theremainderofthispaperproceedsasfollows.Thenextsection(Section2)providesahistoricalbackgroundonthecivilexaminthecontextoflateimperialChina.InSection3weexaminethepersistente ectofkejuonyearsofschoolingtoday,whereasinSection46Weborrowtheterm\inclusive"fromAcemogluandRobinson(2012).7Wethankananonymousrefereeforthisinsight.4weidentifythecausale ectofkejuusinganinstrumentalvariableapproach.Section5goesbeyondtheculturaltransmissionchannelandexaminesanumberofmechanismsthroughwhichthelong-defunctkejuhasimpactedoncontemporaryhumancapitaloutcomes,whereasSection6examineskeju'se ectonsocioeconomicinequalityoverthelongrun.Secti

on7o ersaconclusion.2HistoricalConte
on7o ersaconclusion.2HistoricalContext2.1CivilExamSuccessinLateImperialChinaEventhoughkejuwasalreadyconsolidatedintheSongdynasty(c.960-1276),itwasheldsparinglybytheMongolsintheYuandynasty(amere16times),hencethecivilexamsystemdidnotbecomefullyinstitutionalizeduntiltheMingdynasty(c.1368-1643)whentheHanresumedsovereignty.Thesystemthenlasteduntil1905|afewyearsbeforethelastimperialrule(theQingdynasty,c.1644-1911)cametoanend.China'scivilexamconsistedofthreelevels.Attheentrylevelwastheprefecturalexam,successinwhichledtothequali cationofashengyuan.Thenextlevelupwastheprovincialexam,whichonlythequali edshengyuan(earnedbypassingaqualifyingexam)wereeligibletotake.Inthefortunateeventthattheypassedtheywereawardedajuren.Finally,onlythosewithajurenquali cationcouldtakethejinshiexa

m|the nalstageofthecivilexam.Jinshih
m|the nalstageofthecivilexam.Jinshiholderswereguaranteedapositioninmid-to-high-levelgovernmentadministrationand,assuchbecameamandarin|theenvyofmany.8FigureA1intheAppendixsummarizesthehierarchyofChina'scivilexam.RegardlessofitslevelChina'scivilexamwasessentiallyregulatedbyaquotasystem.Atthelowestlevel,theshengyuanquotawasapportionedtothecountiesandprefecturesonthebasisof:(1)thesizeofthecountyorprefectureocialschool,(2)populationsize,(3)taxobligations,and(4)pastexamachievements(Chang,1955).EssentiallytheQingdynastyinheritedtheshengyuanquotadistributionfromtheMingdynasty,withtheQingEmperorKangximakingonlyminoradjustmentstoitin1670afterwhichitremainedunchangedforsometime.Itwasonlyafterthe1850s,when,inanattempttoencouragetheregionalgovernmentstohelpsuppresstheTaipingrebels(c.18

50-1864),thatEmperorXianfengincreasedthe
50-1864),thatEmperorXianfengincreasedthequotatothosewhocontributed(Chang,1955).Whiletherewerealsoquotas8Forinstance,Ho(1962)showsthat,fromtheMingdynastyonwardsthejinshiquali cation\automat-icallyplacedapersoninthemiddlestratumoftheocialdom"(p.26andp.120),whereasthejurencouldonlybeplaced\inthepostsofcountymagistrates,directorsandsubdirectorsofschools(attheprefecturalandcountylevels),andothercomparableoces"(p.27).BymiddlestratumHo(1962)referstoappoint-mentsrankedbetweenfourthandsixthoutofnineranks,whereasmagistratesandschooldirectorsatthecountyleveltypicallycommensuratewithranksseventhtoninth.5forthejurenandjinshi,unliketheshengyuantheywereapportionedtotheprovinces,which,aswiththecaseoftheshengyuanhadalsochangedlittleovertime(Shang,2004).Asthequotasystemwasstrictlydet

erminedbytheabovementionedfactorsand,inv
erminedbytheabovementionedfactorsand,inviewoftheirstabilityovermostoftheMing-Qingperiod,itwasunlikelythataprovinceorprefecturelobbiedformorequota.China'scivilexamhadthreedistinctcharacteristics.Foremostwasitsopenness.Kejuwasopentoallmalesregardlessofsocialbackground.Thismeansthata\commoner"|someonewhoseancestorshadneverpassedeventhelowestleveloftheexam|waseligibletositforthecivilexamsolongashepassedeachleveloftheexamintheestablishedsequence.9Ping-tiHo,aneminenthistorianofChina,indeed ndsthatintheQingdynastyasmanyas45.1%ofjurenand37.2%ofjinshicamefromacommonerbackground(Ho,1962,pp.114-116).10Second,kejuwasrelativelyfreeofcorruption.Forinstance,topreventexaminersfromrecognizingaparticularcandidatethroughhishandwriting,allexamscriptswerehandcopied rstandgradedbyasmanyaseightex

aminerswhowereoblivioustotheidentityofth
aminerswhowereoblivioustotheidentityofthecandidates(thecandidates'nameswereconcealed).Moreover,theexaminerswouldberemovedfromoceiftheywerefoundtohavefavoredaparticularcandidateintheirgrading,orevenfacedapossibledeathpenaltyifthisoccurredinthe nalstageoftheexam(Shang,2004).Theseverityofthepenaltyislikelypowerfulenoughtodetercorruption.Lastbutnotleast,giventhatonewasalsoallowedtotaketheexamrepeatedly(inadditiontoitsopenness),China'scivilexamsystemwasextremelycompetitive.Passingratesfortheshengyuan,forexample,areestimatedatonly1-1.5%(Ji,2006),whereasthoseforthejurenandjinshiwereabout6%and17.7%,respectively.11Hence,inthemid-Qingthechancesthatsomeoneattemptingtheshengyuanexamwouldeventuallybecomeajurenandjinshiwereamere0.09%(1.5%*6%)and0.016%(1.5%*6%*17.7%),respectively|verysli

mindeed!Moreover,competitionhadintensi&#
mindeed!Moreover,competitionhadintensi edovertime,thankstotheexplosivegrowthinpopulationfromapproximately110millionintheMingto400millionintheQing(Ho,9Thankstoitsopennessandpositivepublicperceptions,atleasttwomillionmen(about2.5%ofthemalepopulationagedbetween15and49inthemid-Qingera)registeredforeachprefecture-levelexam,withatotalquotaforeachexamofaround30,000(BaiandJia,2016:684-685).Anotherestimatehasputthetotalnumberofliterati(dushuren)ataround20million,roughly5%ofthetotalpopulationinmid-Qing(Ji,2006).10Theextenttowhichsocialmobilitywasactuallyachievedunderthecivilexamsystemisasubjectofintensedebate,withsomescholarsarguingthatonlythosefrom\literatiormerchantfamilies,lineagesorclanswithsucientlinguisticandculturalresources"wereabletocompeteandsucceedinthecivilexam(Elman,20

00).Herewerefrainfromjoiningthisdebatebu
00).Herewerefrainfromjoiningthisdebatebutinsteadfocusonthefactthatsocialmobility,howeversmallitschancemaybe,wasindeedfeasible.11Ateachexamabout1,241jurenwouldbeselectedoutof20,600shengyuan,andabout220jinshiwouldbeselectedoutof1,250juren(calculatedbasedonourowndata).61962;Kuhn,1978).122.2RewardsfortheJinshiUnderthelastingin uenceofConfucianismtheocials(shi)inimperialChinawereheldinthehighestregard,andcivilexamwastheonlyroadtoocialdomforcommoners.13Whilemadeuponly2%ofthepopulation,thecivilexamscholarsaccountedforalmostaquarter(24%)ofthenation'sincome(Chang,1962).Thisexplainswhytheirsalariedincomewasabout16timesthatofacommoner.Butinrealitythedi erencewassomuchgreater,assalariesaccountedforbutatinyportionofexamscholars'actualincomes.Forinstance,manywerefoundtohaveinveste

dinavarietyofbusinesseslikerealestate,ba
dinavarietyofbusinesseslikerealestate,banks,jewelryshops,andeventhemonopolytradeofsalt.Thus,thejinshiwas,forthemajority,theultimatequali cationtoachieve.Inadditiontothelucrativeeconomicrewardsthatcametheirwayasalearnedclass,additionalmotivationmayalsocomefromthevanityofholdingadegreeandthevarietyofritualisticrecognitionsbythecommunityandthenationatlarge.Forinstance,thenameofajinshiwouldberecordedinthelocalgazetteer,carvedonthemonumentofthelocalschoolandeventheConfucianTempleinthenationalcapital,andarches,gatewaysandtempleswouldbeerectedinhisname(Ho,1962).Forallthesereasons,incentiveswerestrongforonetoclimbthesocialladderinlaterimperialChinesesocietyandthecivilexamprovidedjustsuchapossibility.14Theseextraordinaryreturnstothejinshiquali cationforaslongasnearly600yearshavemost

likelyfosteredacultureofvaluingeducation
likelyfosteredacultureofvaluingeducationamongtheChineseovertime.Thedesiretosucceedinthecivilexamwassostrongthatpreparationforitbeganatthetenderageof6-7yearsold,whenchildrenweremadetorecitenolessthan2,000charactersfromtheThreeCharacterPrimer(sanzijing)|anancientConfuciantextbookforchildren|afterjustoneyearofstudy(Rawski,1979).12Thepercentagesofcandidateswhoobtainedtheshengyuan,jurenandjinshiquali cationsintheearlyQingwere5%,0.3%and0.053%,respectively(Ji,2006).13Thesocialhierarchywhichexistedbackthenconsistedoftheshi(ocials)attheverytop,followedbythenong(farmers),thegong(artisans),andtheshang(merchants)inthatorder.14Theyweresostrongthatevenrichmerchantswouldallegedlysendtheirsonsto\enterthecivilexam-inationandtorisehighinthebureaucracy"(Needham,1969,p.202).72015)|theonlyCh

inesehistoriantohaveprovidedpopulationda
inesehistoriantohaveprovidedpopulationdataattheprefecturelevelforvarioustimepointsspanningboththeMingandQingdynasties.16Toreduceskewnesswealsoraisethenumberofjinshidensitytothenaturallog.Toavoidlosingobservationswithavalueofzero,weadd1tothenumberofjinshi,i.e.,ln(1+jinshi/population).FigureA2intheAppendixshowsthegeographicdistributionofthejinshi,juren,andshengyuanquotadensityinthe278historicalprefectures.3.2BaselineControlsItisnecessarytocontrolforanumberofcovariatesthatarelikelytoimpactupontheyearsofschoolingtoday.Weclassifythemintotwocategories.The rstisavectorofbaselinecontrolvariables,denotedbyXci,inequation(1).NighttimeLights.Wecontrolforcontemporaryeconomicprosperityasmeasuredbytheaveragesatellitelightdensityatnighttimein2010attheprefecturallevel(Henderson,Storeygard,andWe

il,2012).17Geography.Wealsocontrolforsev
il,2012).17Geography.Wealsocontrolforseveralkeyfeaturesofgeography,mostnotablydistancetocoastandterrainruggedness.Distancetocoastisimportantbecauseprefectureslocat-edonthecoastwerelikelyearlybene ciariesofWesterntechnology,knowledgeandtrade,whereasterrainruggednesscanhaveaprofoundlylastinge ectonlong-termeconomicdevel-opmenteitherthroughitsdirectimpactorthroughitsinteractionwithkeyhistoricalevents(NunnandPuga,2012).Distancetothecoastismeasuredasthedistancebetweenapre-fecture'scentroidtotheclosestpointonthecoast,whereasanindexofterrainruggednessisconstructedbycalculatingthedi erenceinelevationbetweenadjacentcellgridsusingdataprovidedbytheUnitedStatesGeographicService(USGS).18ProvinceFixedE ects.Tocontrolforthee ectoftheprovincialquotasofjinshi(andotherunobservede

ectsassociatedwiththeprovinces)onji
ectsassociatedwiththeprovinces)onjinshidensity,weincludeprovin-cialdummiesintheregressions.16ThedatapointsofpopulationinCao(2000,2015)are1391(Ming),1580(Ming),1776,1820,1851,1880,and1910.Wenormalizethenumberofjinshiineachprefecturebytakingtheaverageofthesesevendatapoints.Forrobustness,wealsonormalizethenumberofjinshibyaprefecture'slandarea(per10,000km2)andusetheactualnumberofjinshiasalternativemeasures.Bothyieldsimilarresults(notreported)tothejinshi/populationmeasure.17TheactualdataareobtainedfromtheGlobalDMSP-OLSNighttimeLightsprovidedbytheEarthObservationGroupsintheNationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformation.18TheDigitalElevationModel(DEM)istypicallyspacedatthe90square-metercellgridsacrosstheentiresurfaceoftheearthonageographicallyprojectedmap.9variousdensitiesofkejudegreeh

oldersaswedidinTable2,andobtainstrikingl
oldersaswedidinTable2,andobtainstrikinglyconsistentresults(columns(5)-(8)).[Table3abouthere]Alloftheseresultsclearlysuggestthat,ofthethreemeasuresofkejuculturejinshiisthemostappropriate,possiblybecauseitsculturalin uencesarethemostfar-reaching.23Infact,theresultsinTable3canbeveri edgraphicallyinFigureA2intheAppendix.Forinstance,thegeographicdistributionofjinshiisstrikinglysimilartothatofjuren(comparePanelAwithPanelB),butthatoftheshengyuanquotaisnot(PanelC);asmentionedearliertheshengyuanquotawasgeographicallydistributedtomaintainsocialandpoliticalstabilityinthoseregions|mostnotablythoseinthesouthwest|thattraditionallywerenotacradleofcivilexamsuccess(Ho,1962).4CausalIdenti cationAprefecture'ssuccessinkejuexamwaslikelyassociatedwithacomplexmyriadoffactors.Althoughwehavealready

controlledformanypossibleconfoundingones
controlledformanypossibleconfoundingones,theremaystillbeomittedvariables|variablesthataresimultaneouslyassociatedwithbothhistoricaljinshidensityandyearsofschoolingtoday.Forinstance,prefecturesthathadproducedmorejinshimaybeassociatedwithunobserved(naturalorgenetic)endowments.Todealwiththeseconcerns,weemployaninstrumentalvariableapproach.4.1DistancetothePrintingIngredients(PineandBamboo)astheInstrumentalVariableofKejuTheFourBooksandtheFiveClassicswerethelynchpinofChina'scivilexam.Foronetosucceedinitonemustnotonlymemorizeitscontentsbutbeabletodemonstrateasolidunderstandingofthenuanced,authoritativeinterpretationsofthesetexts.Thisrequirednotjusttheavailabilityoftherelevanttextsbut,24importantly,alsoalargeclusterofreferencesthatexplainedthesenuancesandtaughtthetricksoftheeight-leggedess

ay(Ho,1962;McDermott,2006).25However,the
ay(Ho,1962;McDermott,2006).25However,thefactthatonly19printingcentersweredistributedacross23Forthatreason,wewillemployonlyjinshidensityasourmeasureofkejucultureintheremaininganalysis.24CountyandprefectureschoolsreliedonthecentralgovernmentforcopiesoftheFourBooksandFiveClassics,butstudentshadtoresorttotheprivatebooksellersfortheirowncopies(McDermott,2006).25Sishujicheng(CollectedCommentariesontheFourBooks),forexample,was\anessentialtextforexaminationstudy"(Brokaw,2007,pp.97-98).AnotherpopularreferencewasSishubeizhi(FullPurportoftheFourBooks).13the278prefectures,andthatthese19centersaccountedfor80%ofthe13,050textspublishedduringthatperiod(ZhangandHan,2006),26meantthataccesstoreferencebooksvariedenormouslyfromoneprefecturetoanotherinviewofprohibitiveoverlandtransportcosts.27Whatthen

determinedthegeographicavailabilityofboo
determinedthegeographicavailabilityofbooks?Toaddressthisquestion,weturntothelocationofthetwomainingredientsrequiredfortraditionalChinese(woodblock)printing|pineandbamboo|forclues.Fromaroundthe14thcenturyonwardstheprevailingprintingtechnologyinChinareliedprimarilyonpineandbambooforproducinginkandpaper(Brokaw,2007;Tsien,1987;ZhangandHan,2006).Toeconomizeontransportcosts,majorprintingcenterswerelikelylocatedincloseproximitytothepineandbamboohabitats(Figure3A).28Forinstance,whileTingzhouandJianningprefecturesofFujianProvincedidnothavetheirownpineandbambooforests,thematerialscouldbesourcedfromthenearbyprefectures(Brokaw,2007),asillustratedinFigure3B.Againstthisstylizedfact,distancetothenearestpineandbamboositeswouldmakeareasonableinstrumentinourcase.Moreover,thankstothewell-connectedriv

ertributariesinthelowerYangtzedeltaregio
ertributariesinthelowerYangtzedeltaregion,themainingredientsrequiredformakinginkandpaperweremostlyshippedalongtheriver(Figure3C).29[Figure3abouthere]Thusthelogicbehindourinstrumentisasfollows.Totheextentthataprefecture'ssuccessinthecivilexamwascloselyrelatedtoprintingoraccesstobooks,thatthemajorprintingcenterswerelocatedincloseproximitytothepineandbamboohabitats,andthattheingredientsrequiredforprintingweretransportedthroughthemainnavigablerivertributaries,aprefecture'sriverdistancetoitsnearestbambooandpinehabitatswouldbea26PrintedbooksrefertothetotalnumberofbookcataloguesprintedinaprefectureduringtheentireMing-Qingperiod.ThedataareobtainedfromDuandDu(2001,2009).Theremaining20%ofbookswerepublishedinnearbylocalitieswiththepublishershiringbothtechnicalpersonnelandprintingmachinesfrom

thesecenters(ZhangandHan,2006).27Toillus
thesecenters(ZhangandHan,2006).27Toillustrate,thesamebooksintheimperialcapitalofBeijingfetched1.7timeshigherpricesthaninthelowerYangtze,and3.3timeshigherpricesthaninFujianProvince(McDermott,2006).Eventhoughbookscouldbeshippedfromthesouthallthewayuptothenationalcapitalinthenorth(HuzhouGazetteer),e ectivelydistributingthemposedanotherobstacle.28Outofthe19printingcentersonlytwo|HangzhouandNingboinsoutheasternChina|hadbothpineandbamboohabitatsintheirownprefectures.Oftheremaining17printingcenters,11hadneitherpinenorbamboo;theremainingsixhadeitherpine(4)orbamboo(2),butnotboth.Inshort,all17ofthemhadtorelyonothernearbyprefecturestosupplythemwitheitheroneifnotbothofthenecessaryingredientsforprinting.29Forinstance,Yasushi(2014) ndsthat,afterfellingthepinetreesintheforeststhemerchants

inHuizhouprefectureofAnhuiProvinceshippe
inHuizhouprefectureofAnhuiProvinceshippedtheirtimbertotheprintingcentersalongtherivertributariesofthelowerYangtzedelta.Likewise,inwesternFujianProvincelocalmerchants\cutandprocessedthewoodand oateditdowntheYinRiverforsaleinChaozhou,Foshanzhen,andGuangzhou"(p.43),and\eachboattypicallycarriedthirty'loads'(dan)ofpaper(thatis,about30,000sheets,weighing1.82metrictons)"(Brokaw,2007,p.116).14feasiblevariabletoinstrumenttheendogenousjinshidensity.InformationonthegeographiclocationsofpineandbambooforestsisobtainedfromtheProvincialGazetteers(tongzhi)compiledduringtheMing-Qingperiod.Thepublicationcontainsachapteronthelocalproduce(wuchan)whichincludedspeciesoflocalplantsandanimalsaswellasmajorhandicrafts.Weconsideraprefectureashavingapineand/orbamboohabitatonlyifitissucientlysizeabletobe

mentionedinthelocalproducechapterinthePr
mentionedinthelocalproducechapterintheProvincialGazetteers.Thisrestrictsthenumberofpinehabitatstojust27andbambooto65amongthe278Ming-Qingprefectures.30UsinghistoricalGISdataonthemajorinlandriversidenti edbyMatsuura(2009)astheonesusedforshippingmerchandisesinQingChinafromHarvardCHGIS,31wecomputeaprefecture'sshortestriverdistancestoitsnearestbambooandpineforests.Wethentaketheaverageofthetwodistancesasourinstrumentalvariable.Weexaminetheimportanceofpineandbambooforprintingandaccordinglyapre-fecture'ssuccessinthecivilexaminTable4.Webeginbyregressingjinshidensityonthenumberofprintedbooks rst,and ndthemtobehighlysigni cant(columns(1)and(2)).32Wethenexaminewhetherriverdistancetothetwomainingredientsforprintingissignif-icantlycorrelatedwithwhetheraprefecturehadamajorprinting

center(columns(3)and(4))andthenumberofpr
center(columns(3)and(4))andthenumberofprintedbooks(columns(5)and(6)),andcon rmtheirnegativeandsigni cantrelationships.Finally,weshowthatourinstrumentisnegativelyandsigni cantlycorrelatedwithjinshidensity(columns(7)and(8)).Takentogether,theseresultscon rmthehypothesizedimportanceofpineandbambooindeterminingtheavailabilityofbooksand,asacorollary,aprefecture'ssuccessinkejuexams.[Table4abouthere]4.2ExclusionRestrictionsAuniqueadvantageofusingthelocationsofbambooandpineasinstrumentisthat,ashabitatstheirgeographicdistributionswereexogenouslygiven.Historians ndlittleifanyevidenceofplantingpineandbamboointentionallyforthepurposeofcommercialprinting(Elvin,2004).33Whilethelocationsofpineandbambooforestswereexogenouslydeter-30Whilepineandbamboohabitatsmayalsoexistinprefec

turesotherthantheonesdocumentedinthegaze
turesotherthantheonesdocumentedinthegazetteers,theyweretoosmallforsupplyingtheprintingindustry.31Hissourcesincludehistoricalandgovernmentarchives,travelers'notesaswellasbusinessguidebooks.32Whileprintingwascrucialforexamsuccess,itwasunlikelytohavebecomeaspopularasitdidhadtherebeennocivilexam,orhadthecivilexambeenanylessimportant.TheimportanceofkejuforprintingiswellrecognizedbyChinesehistorians(see,forexample,Cao,2013;Zhang,2010).33EventhemostsuccessfulwoodmerchantsinHuizhouprefectureofAnhuiProvincepreferredtolumbertreesfromprimordialforestsratherthanplantingtheirown(Li,2000).15Toruleoutthatpossibilitywecontrolforaprefecture'sshortestdistancetoitsnearestmajornavigableriver(de nedasthegreat-circledistancemeasuredfromaprefecture'scentroidtothenearestpointonthemajornavigableriver)

intheMing-Qingperiod,togetherwiththefull
intheMing-Qingperiod,togetherwiththefullsetofcontrolvariablesincolumn(2).Inbothcolumns,we ndthatthereducedformestimatesaresigni cantlynegative;ashypothesized,thefartherawayaprefecturewasfromthebambooandpinehabitatsthelowertheyearsofschoolingtoday.Incolumns(3)and(4)weemploytheshareofpopulationwith\highschool"and\universityandabove"educationasthedependentvariableand ndconsistentresults.Wenowreportthe2SLSestimatesincolumns(5)and(6)ofTable5.Theresultsrevealthatthe rst-stageIV-estimatesareallsigni cant.TheF-statisticsuggeststhatourinstrumentalvariableisbynomeansaweakinstrument.Moreimportantlythesecond-stageIVestimatesarealsosigni cant.Usingtheaverageofthetwoshortestriverdistancestopineandbambooasinstrument,we ndthatjinshidensitysigni cantlyandpositivelyex

plainsyearsofschooling.35Theinstrumented
plainsyearsofschooling.35Theinstrumentedjinshicoecient(0.087,column(6)ofTable5)issomewhatlargerthantheOLSestimate(0.07,column(3)ofTable2),suggestingthattheendogenousjinshimeasurelikelyhasthee ectofbiasingtheestimationtowardszero,andthusunderestimatedthelong-terme ectofkejuoncontemporaryhumancapitaloutcomes.Theinstrumentedresultsuggeststhatadoublingofjinshidensity(per10,000people)isassociatedwithan8.7%increaseinaverageyearsofschoolingin2010.Thisimpliesthatanadditionaljinshiper10,000peopleleadstoanincreaseinyearsofschoolingof0.8whenevaluatedatthemeanof8.712years.ComparedwiththeOLSestimatesofTable2whenthedependentvariabletakesontheshareofpopulationwith\highschool"and\universityandabove"education(columns(7)and(8)),theIV-estimatesareconsistentlysigni cant,withslightlyla

rgermagnitudes(byabout14%and29%).[Table5
rgermagnitudes(byabout14%and29%).[Table5abouthere]5AccountingfortheChannelsofKejuPersistence5.1TransmissionofKejuCultureCultureisinherentlystable,andassuchitislikelytotransmitfromonegenerationtothenextoveralongperiodoftime(AlseinaandGiuliano,2015;BoydandRicherson,35Inlightofthefactthatprintingcentersinthenorthmayrelylessonrivertransport,wealsousedgreat-circledistanceinplaceofriverdistanceasinstrumenttoruntheregressionsagainandobtainedsimilarresults(notreported).171985;GiulianoandNunn,2017;VoigtlanderandVoth,2012).Premisedonthisreasoning,althoughkejuhaslongbeenabolished,thecultureofvaluingeducationthatitfosteredhaslikelypersisted.BertrandRussell's(1922)insightfulremarkinTheProblemofChinahintedpreciselyatthat:\atanyrate,forgoodorevil,theexaminationsystemprofoundlya ectedtheciv

ilizationofChina.Amongitsgoode ectsw
ilizationofChina.Amongitsgoode ectswereawidely-di usedrespectforlearning...".Conceptually,economistshavedevelopedaframeworkforanalyzinghowculturaltraitscouldbetransmittedverticallyacrossgenerationswithinthefamilycontextthroughparentalindoctrinationandinput(Becker,1991;DoepkeandZilibotti,2014;Guryan,Hurst,andKearny,2008).36Inthespeci ccontextofChina,the\widely-di usedrespectforlearning"iscommonlyunderstoodas\jiaxueyunyuan"or\shuxiangmendi",meaning\alongtraditionoflearningintheliteratifamilies".WithinEastAsiawherethesameConfuciannormissimilarlyprevalent,evidencesuggeststhatstudentsspentsigni cantlymoretimestudyingthaneithertheirAmericanorEuropeancounterparts(Rozman,2014;StevensonandLee,1990)andinvestedmoreresourcesinprivatetutoring(ChaoandTseng,2002).Totestwhether

thelong-termpersistente ectofkejuisd
thelong-termpersistente ectofkejuisdue(atleastinpart)totheverticaltransmissionofculturewithintheeducatedelitefamilies,weturntothe2010ChineseFamilyPanelSurvey(CFPS),anationallyrepresentativesurveyconductedbytheInstituteofSocialScienceSurveyofPekingUniversity.37Auniqueadvantageofthissurveyisthatitconsistsofbothanadultsample,whichinturnhasasubsampleconsistingofonlythosewhoareparents,andachildsampleofthoseaged16andunderbutover7.Inourempiricalanalysiswedrawuponallthreesamplesinordertomoreaccuratelycapturetheculturaltransmissionchannel.We rstmakeuseoftwoattitudinalquestionsintheoverall(adult)sampletomeasurethestrengthofcultureofvaluingeducationamongthe42,590respondents.The rstisadummyvariableindicatingwhetherarespondentregardseducationas\themostimportantdeterminantofsocialsta

tus",whereasthesecondisalsoadummyvariabl
tus",whereasthesecondisalsoadummyvariableindicatingwhetherone\prefershis/hergovernmenttoprioritizespendingoneducation"(amongalonglistofpublicexpenditures).38Tocheckrobustnesswealsodrawupontheparentsample;those36Inadditiontotransmittingtheirownhumancapital(genetically)totheiro spring,typicallyparentsalsopassontheirownvaluesthroughparentalinput(e.g.,Becker,1991).Forinstance,withapremiumplaceduponliteracy,bookishness,andeducation,theJewshavemostpersuasivelydemonstratedthisprocessofpassingskillsandattitudesontolatergenerations(BotticiniandEckstein,2012).37Thesurveycovered14,960householdsin25provinces.Refertothecenter'swebsite(http://www.isss.edu.cn/cfps/)forfurtherdetails.38Thelistcontainsuptotencategoriesofexpenditure:environmentalprotection,medicalcare,policeandlawenforcement,ed

ucation,sportandrecreationfacilities,pen
ucation,sportandrecreationfacilities,pension,socialinsurance,jobscreation,18respondentswithchildrenaged12andunderwereaskedabouttheirexpectationsfor,andinputin,theirchildren'seducation.Thesequestionsinclude1)\theyearsofschoolingtheirchildrenwere(ideally)expectedtoreceive",2)\whethertheyoftengiveupwatchingTVinordertoaccompanychildren",and3)\thetotalhourstheyspentontutoringchildren'shomeworkperweek".Additionally,theinterviewerwasaskedtoindicateona ve-pointscale\whetherparentse ectivelycommunicatedwith(their)children".Togaugethefamilialtransmissionofkejuculture,weconstructtwolinearvariables|thepatrilinealandmatrilinealancestors'jinshidensity|toproxyfortheachievements(ifany)ofthesurveyrespondents'ancestorsinagivenpopulationwhohadobtainedajinshiquali -cation.Toidentifythem,w

ematchthesurveyedindividualswiththeirpat
ematchthesurveyedindividualswiththeirpatrilinealancestorsbasedonthesurnameandhometown(prefecture)information,undertheassumptionthatpeopleborninthesameprefectureandsharingthesamesurnamearelikelytoberelatedalongthepatrilinealline(Clark,2014).Toillustratethisidea,supposetherewere90jinshiwiththesurnameKunginSuzhouprefectureintheMing-Qingperiod.GiventhepopulationinthisprefecturewiththesurnameKungtodayis34,000,thenormalizedjinshidensityforpatrilinealancestorshavingthesurnameKunginSuzhouprefectureisthus0.0003.Simi-larly,usingthemaidensurnameandhometowninformationoftherespondent'smother,werepeatthesameproceduretoconstructthevariableonmatrilinealancestors,i.e.,themalejinshifromthemother'sfamily(e.g.thematernalgrandfatheranduncles).Toseparateculturaltransmissionfrominheritedability,wefurther

controlforthere-spondents'memoryandlogic
controlforthere-spondents'memoryandlogictestscores,andtheireducationallevelandincome,alongsideabatteryofcontrolsfortheirage,gender,ethnicityandresidentialstatus(ruralversusurban),inadditiontoalltheprefecturalcontrols.TheresultsarereportedinPanelAofTable6.Ancestraljinshidensityhasasigni cantlypositivee ectontherespondents'attitudetowardseducation.Speci cally,thosewithmorejinshiancestorsaremorelikelytovieweducationas\themostimportantdeterminantofsocialstatus"|resonatingwiththeso-called\exam-to-mobility"normthatundergirdedthekejusystem(column(1)).Consistently,theserespondentsalsopreferthegovernmenttoprioritizespendingoneducation(column(2)).Intheparentsample,ancestraljinshidensityissigni cantlycorrelatedwiththenumberofyearsforwhichparentsexpectedtheirchildrentoattendsch

ool(column(3))andtheamountoftimeande
ool(column(3))andtheamountoftimeande ortthatparentsdevotedtosupervisingtheirchildren'shomework(columns(4)-(5)).Ancestraljinshidensityisalsoconsistentlysigni cantlyassociatedwiththeinterviewer'ssubjectiveevaluationofhowoftenparentscommunicatedwiththeirchildren(column(6)).unemploymentrelief,andculturalandartisticactivities.19[Table6abouthere]Tofurtherverifytheculturaltransmissionchannel,wedrawuponthechildsampletoexaminethee ectofancestraljinshidensityonchildren'stestscores(wordandmathabilitytests)andtheircognitiveandnon-cognitiveperformance(PanelB).Aswiththespeci cationinPanelA,wecontrolfortheirinheritedability(memoryandlogictestscores)andfamilyin uence(parents'yearsofeducationandincome).Thebaselineresultsshowthatchildrenwithmorejinshiancestorsindeedperformedbetteri

nboththewordandmathabilitytestsirrespect
nboththewordandmathabilitytestsirrespectiveofthenumberofcontrols(columns(7)-(10)).Concerningcognitiveskills,childrenwithmorejinshiancestorsarealsomorelikelytopasstheirexamswith yingcolors(column(11));andinconnectionwithnon-cognitiveperformance,thesestudentsalsotendtobeabsentfromclasslessoftenandtospendmoretimestudying(columns(12)-(13)).Perhapsaremainingconcernofthisanalysisisthat,comparedwithEnglandandWales,whichaltogetherhad270,000surnamesin2002(ClarkandCummins,2015),theChinesehavefarfewersurnames|approximately4,100excludingtheethnicminoritiesbasedonthe1%minicensusof2005.Forexample,thetop vesurnamesofLi,Wang,Zhang,Liu,andChentogetheralreadyaccountedfor34.09%oftheentirepopulation.Totheextentthatthosesharingthesamesurnameinthesameprefecturemayactuallycomefromdi erentlineageg

roups(thesurnameLiisagoodcaseinpoint),th
roups(thesurnameLiisagoodcaseinpoint),thismayrendertheancestralmeasureoffamilyculturaltransmissionmuchlessaccurate.Toaddressthisconcern,werestrictoursampletoonlytheraresurnames,asthelikelihoodofthosepossessingthesamesurnamelivinginthesameprefectureandsharingthesameancestorswouldbedistinctlyhigher.Inthe1%minicensusof2005,wethusemployonly2,265outofthe4,100surnames,whichaccountedforjust20%oftheChinesepopulation.ReportedinAppendixTableA3,theresultsofusingraresurnamesarestrikinglyconsistentwiththoseoftheadultandparentsamples(PanelA).Inthechildsample,thee ectofculturaltransmissiononcognitiveperformanceandthatonnon-cognitiveperformancearealsoconsistentlysimilar,whilethoseonthewordandmathabilitytestsarelesspreciselyestimatedduetothelargerstandarderrorsresultingfromamuchsmallersample.5.

2EducationalInfrastructureInadditiontocu
2EducationalInfrastructureInadditiontoculture,educationalinfrastructuremayrepresentyetanotherchannelthroughwhichkejuproducesapersistente ectoncontemporaryhumancapitaloutcomes.39In39Thepositiverelationshipbetweeneducationalinfrastructureandschoolingoutcomeshasbeenwelldocumented(e.g.,Du o,2001).20becauseitis\essentialtotheexistenceofalineage"(Bol,2008,p.241),somuchsothatresourcefulclanstendtorevisetheirgenealogiesmorefrequentlyinordertostrengthenthesenseofbelongingandhonor(Watson,1982).ThedataongenealogyareobtainedfromZhongguojiapuzongmu(AComprehensiveCatalogueontheChineseGenealogy),whichcontainsthegenealogiesofupto52,401clansandinvolvingmorethan700surnamesacross280prefecturesinChina(ShanghaiLibrary,2009).Weusetwomeasurestoproxyforsocialcapital.Forthelateimperialperiodweenu-mer

atethecharitableorganizationssuchasthose
atethecharitableorganizationssuchasthoseengagedinrelievingfamineandrunningorphanagesintheQingdynastyasproxies.ThedataareobtainedfromtheHarvardChinaMap.42Toconstructtwoseparatemeasuresofsocialorganizations,wealsoenu-merateabroadrangeofnon-pro tsocialorganizationslikefarmers'associations,laborunions,chambersofcommerce,women'sassociations,educationalandstudentbodies,reli-giousassociations,charitableorganizationsandsoforthinboththeRepublicanperiodandin2008(obtainedrespectivelyfromacensussurveyofsocialorganizationsin1935andtheeconomiccensusconductedin2008).TheresultsarereportedinTable8.First,we ndthatjinshidensityhasasigni cantlypositivee ectonthenumberofgenealogies(columns(1)and(2)),whichatteststothestrongrelationshipbetweencivilexamsuccessandsocialcapitalembodiedinthec

lanorganization.Likewise,jinshidensityal
lanorganization.Likewise,jinshidensityalsohasasigni cantlypositivee ectonthenumberofcharitableorganizationsinthelateQing(columns(3)and(4)),aswellasonthenumberofsocialorganizationsin1935and2008(columns(5)-(8)).Together,theseresultsprovidesuggestiveevidencethatsocialcapitalrepresentsanotherlikelychannelthroughwhichthecivilexamhasimpacteduponhumancapitaloutcomesovertime.[Table8abouthere]5.4PoliticalElitesUponpassingthecivilexamthejinshiwasgrantedentryintoocialdom,withsomebe-cominghigh-levelocials(atthelevelofprovinceandabove).43Likeclans,whichallegedlyhelpedmemberssucceedinthecivilexamviatheunevenresourcestheyprovided,politi-calelitestoocouldbearuponaprefecture'sexamoutcomesbyin uencingthedistributionofeducationalresources(e.g.sizeoftheacademy)totheirhometowns.Toacco

untforthischannel,weconstructameasureofp
untforthischannel,weconstructameasureofpoliticalelitesforeachoftheimperial,Republi-canandcontemporaryperiods.TomeasurethestrengthofpoliticalelitesinlateQing(c.42AnonlineGISdatabasefromhttps://worldmap.harvard.edu/chinamap/.43Attheminimumajinshiholderwouldbecomeacountymagistrate(JiangandKung,2019).23educationalandconsequentlyincomelevelofvarioussocialgroups.45However,thereversecouldhavebeentrueiflegaciesofthecivilexamhaveastrongere ectforsome|especiallythewealthier|groupsthanothers.Ifthatisthecase,kejupersistencewouldreinforcetheexistinginequalitybetweenthesesocialgroups,resultingindecreasingsocialmobility.Totestthee ectofkejupersistenceonsocialmobilitywefocusouranalysisoninter-generationalmobility|speci callyeducationalandincomemobilityacrossgenerations.Us-ingthe1%min

icensusof2005asoursample,wecomparetheadu
icensusof2005asoursample,wecomparetheadultrespondents'educationalandincomeattainmentswiththeirparents'attainments.Incolumn(1)ofTable10,we ndthatbothjinshidensityandfamilybackground,speci callytheparents'educationalattain-mentandhousingwealthbutnottheirincome,havesigni cante ectsonone'seducationaloutcome.Toexaminethee ectofkejuoneducationalmobilityacrossgenerations,wefurtherinteractjinshidensitywithparents'educationalattainmentincolumns(2)to(3).We ndthatinprefectureswithastrongerkejuin uence,parents'educationalbackgroundhaslessstrongane ectonanindividual'seducationaloutcome,suggestingthepositivee ectofkejupersistenceonsocialmobilityinthelongrun.Tocheckrobustness,wereplaceeducationalmobilitywithincomemobilityincolumns(4)to(6),andobtainsimilarresults.[T

able10abouthere]7ConclusionsByobservinga
able10abouthere]7ConclusionsByobservingastrong,positiverelationshipbetweenprefectureswithastronghistoricaltra-ditionofexamsuccessandyearsofschoolingtoday,wehaveshownthepersistentimpactofaremarkablylong-livedinstitution|China'scivilexamsystem|onhumancapitaloutcomesorspeci callyeducationalattainmenttoday.Moreover,wehavefurthershownthatthisre-lationshipislikelycausalbyusing,asinstrument,theaverageriverdistancetoaprefecture'snearestpineandbambooforests,whichproducethemainingredientsforprinting.Whilewehaveidenti edimportantpatternsofculturalpersistencestemmingfromvari-ationsinhistoricalinstitutionsintheChinesecontext,ourprimarygoalistoemphasizethemultiplicityofchannelsbeyondthatofculture.Indoingsowehaveprovidedevidencetoshowthateducationalinfrastructure,socialcapital,andtoalesse

rextentpoliticalelitesallfacilitatedthei
rextentpoliticalelitesallfacilitatedtheimpactofChina'scivilexaminstitutionontheculturaltraitofvaluing45ThecivilexamhadallegedlyprovidedsocialmobilityinboththeSongandtheMing-Qingdynasties(Kracke,1947;Ho,1962).TheimportanceofperceivedupwardmobilityprovidedbythecivilexamsystemisemphasizedbyBaiandJia(2016).Byexploitingthevariationsinthequotasonentry-levelexamcandidatesacrossChina,theseauthorsarguethattheprobabilitythatsomeonewouldparticipateinarevolutionin1911aftertheabolitionofthekejuexamsystemwassigni cantlyhigherinprefectureswithhigherquotaspercapita.25Figure3B.TwoExamplesofPrintingCenters'ProximitytoPineandBambooLocations35Figure4.E ectsofRiverDistancetoPineandBambooLocationsonJinshiDensity,byPeriod37FigureA2.RegionalDistributionsofJinshi,JurenandShengyuanQuotaDensities

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