James L Anderson Advisor for Oceans Fisheries and Aquaculture Lead of the Global Program for Fisheries The World Bank Seafood Investor Forum May 20 2014 Roosevelt Hotel New York NY Fish to 2030 Why ID: 759797
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Slide1
Fish to 2030 and Some Other Perspectives
James L. Anderson
Advisor for Oceans, Fisheries and Aquaculture
Lead of the Global Program for Fisheries
The World Bank
Seafood Investor Forum
May 20, 2014
Roosevelt Hotel, New York, NY
Slide2Slide3Fish to 2030 – Why?
Nearly 40 percent of global fish harvest is exported
Over $110 billion in trade and growing
Fish trade is more than all other meats
combined
Two-thirds of seafood trade
(in value)
is from developing to developed countries
Fish trade is more than all other meats combined; more than coffee
Fisheries and aquaculture is an efficient animal protein producing sector
Sustainable food production from fisheries and aquaculture is essential in the face of population growth
Slide4Slide5Slide6Slide7Slide8Fish to 2030 Project
Collaboration: The World Bank, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), University of Arkansas, and FAO
Projection of global supply and demand for fish and fish meal & oil using IFPRI’s IMPACT Model
Capture and aquaculture supply modeled
Model:
Country groups:
115
Seafood groups:
16
Slide9Hundreds of species traded – more than 30 shrimp species aloneIt is Dynamic: Aquaculture –new technologies, new species, new playersDemand is shiftingLarge emerging consumers – ChinaGovernance of capture fisheries is weak and uncertainData are poor!!!
Fish sector is dynamic and complex
(Modeling is challenging)
Slide10Global fish production:
Data and projections (1984-2030)
Slide11Projected Total Fish Supply
Total Harvest
189.1 Million Tons
Slide12Slide13Aquaculture Growth
2030 (Model)
Approx.
50%
of total harvest
Approx.
62%
of fish of human seafood consumption
Aquaculture 2010-2030 –
62% in 20
yrs
Total supply (capture + aquaculture) 2010-2030 –
24% in 20
yrs
Slide14Aquaculture Supply Growth: Species
More than 90% increase from 2010 to 2030TilapiaShrimp40-90% increase from 2010 to 2030MolluscsSalmonCarpPangasius/catfish CrustaceansOther freshwater and diadromous species
Slide15Total Fish Supply Growth: Regions
More than 60% increase from 2010 to 2030India30-60% increase from 2010 to 2030Southeast AsiaOther South AsiaChina
Slide16Aquaculture Supply Growth: Regions
More than
100
%
increase from 2010
to
2030
India
Latin America and Caribbean
Southeast Asia
50-100% increase from 2010
to
2030
South Asia (excl. India)
Middle East and North
Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Less than 50%
increase from 2010 to 2030
Everywhere else
Slide17Consumption Growth: Regions
More than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030South Asia (excl. India)30-50% increase from 2010 to 2030IndiaSoutheast AsiaNorth AmericaMiddle East and North AfricaChinaSub-Saharan AfricaDecline from 2010 to 2030Japan
Slide18Key Conclusions from 2030 study
Expectations for 2030:
Aquaculture will produce 2/3 of food fish
China will consume nearly 40% of seafood
Production of tilapia, shrimp, will nearly double from 2010 to 2030
Largest tonnage gains will be in mollusks, carps
Aquaculture will grow fastest in India
, Latin
America, and Southeast Asia
Slide19Some Additional Perspectives
Slide20China: International Seafood Trade (1984-2011)
China:
#1 Seafood Exporter #1 Seafood Importer
Source:
FishStat
, FAO
2014
Slide21China: International Seafood Trade (1984-2011)
China:
#1 Seafood Exporter #3 Seafood Importer (US and Japan are #1 & #2)
Source:
FishStat
, FAO
2014
Slide22China – Things to consider
Is their
economic growth sustainable?
The corruption
crack down and high value seafood demand
Food Safety
Slide23Aquaculture
Big Risk…..DISEASE
…ISA salmon…
EMS shrimp
Systems? Species? Where?
... Low cost producers generally win
... Unless create market niches are created, like varietal wines
Slide24US Seafood Consumption Continues to Concentratein Fewer Species and Per Capita Consumption is Declining
Slide25Fisheries Reform
Great
investment opportunity to stop losses, cut waste and
innovate in marketing
BUT
.... There to be the creation of new ways to make
monetize natural fisheries
assets ...
Blue
bonds?,
public private
partnership?, creating
new markets – futures? options?
... We need
create thinking.
Slide26Thank You
janderson8@worldbank.org
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/12/18882045/fish-2030-prospects-fisheries-aquaculture