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(From a Sociopolitical and Economic Perspective) DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES zur Zukunft der Arbeit October 2007 Thecombinationofthisaccountabilitywiththestrongeremphasisontheafterlifealsocomplementedmilitarytechnologiesinexternalconicts.Bothoftheseobservationsthenimply,inDurkheimianfashion,thatmonotheistcivilizationsoughttohaveenduredlongerandperhapsevencontrolledlargergeographicdomains.Asaresult,monotheisticfaithsshouldhavespreadandgrownattheexpenseofpaganistandpolytheistreligions.Utilizingoriginalhistoricaldatabetween2500B.C.E.and1750C.E.on105limitedaccessorders,suchasdynasties,kingdomsandempires,IshowthatthebirthofJudaism,ChristianityandIslamandadherencetomonotheismhadstatisticallysignicanteectsonthelengthofreignaswellastheaveragegeographicalsizeofcivilizationshistorically.Specically,Idemonstratebelowthatkingdoms,dynastiesandempireslastedabout360yearsonaverageduringthislongtimeinterval.Andthosehistoricalcivilizationsthatadoptedmonotheism,regardlessofwhetheritwasJudaism,Christian-ity,orIslam,lastedanywherebetween50to80percentlongerthannon-monotheistsocialorders.Beyondthegeneralimpactofadherencetomonotheism,IcannotndanyempiricalevidencethatJudaism,ChristianityorIslamexertedanimpactonthelengthofreignofhistoricalcivilizations.Ialsoconrmthatmonotheismhadaroughlysimilareectonthegeographicdomainoverwhichhistoricalcivilizationsreignedduringtheirpeakinuence.Thatis,monotheistlimitedaccessorderscontrolledabouttwicethelandareaoftheirnon-monotheistcounterparts.Unliketheresultsonduration,however,Indthatadherencetoaspecicreligion–Islam–didexertanadditionalpositiveimpactonthegeo-graphicdomainofcivilizationshistorically.Thus,myndingsindicatethatthebirthandadoptionofmonotheisticreligionsseemtohavehelpedearlydevelopmentbothintheWestandtheNearEastuntiltheadventoftheIndustrialRevolution.Onemightbeboundtothinkthat,sinceOneGodfaithsarebuiltupontruerevelations,theyweredestinedtoslowlywipeoutthefalsitiesofpaganism,polytheismandthelike.Bethatasitmay,suchanassessmentstilllacksanexplanationofwhymonotheismsspreadattheexpenseofotherfaithsatleastpartlyduetothefactthatsocietiesthatadheredtomonotheismlastedlongerandspreadwider.Putdierently,monotheismscouldhavebecometheecclesiasticalnormamongthehistoricalsocietiesoftheMiddleEast,NorthAfrica,EuropeandAsiawithouthavinganeectontheduration AsIclarifybelow,Ishalldeneasocietyasifamajorityofitscitizensadheredtooneofthethreemainmonotheistreligions,and/oritsgovernmentandpoliticalorganizationpromotedoneofthethreemonotheisttraditionsthroughitssocial,economicandmilitarypolicies.Ishallalsodiscusssomeempiricalissuesthatcouldcomplicateouranalysisgiventhisdenition. betweenone’slifetimeandtheafter-life.Therearetwoimplicationsofthesefeatures:First,giventhatinstitutionsofmonotheismpossessedtheecclesiasticalmonopolypowertolegitimizeorunderminethetemporalpowersofthepoliticalelite,ecclesiasticalorganizationsheldsignicantpoliti-calpower.Thatis,theyderivedsubstantialnancialandpoliticalbenetsfrombeingassociatedwithOneGod.Thus,thestabilityofcivilizationscametobelinkedwiththeirrespectiveecclesiasticalinstitutions.Second,thefactthatallmonotheistreligionsholdindividualsaccountabletoGodonJudgmentDayaidedcontractenforcement,com-mitmentandrespectforprivatepropertywithinsocialorders,whilethecombinationofthisaccountabilitywiththestrongeremphasisontheafterlifecomplementedmilitarytechnologiesinexternalconicts.2.1.ReturnstoScale&NaturalMonopolyJudaism,ChristianityandIslamallacknowledgeandpromotethe“oneness”ofGod.Bynature,thisintroducesmonopolypowerandastrongelementofincreasingreturnstoscaleintheprovisionofreligiousservices.Themonopolizationoffaithisadecharacteristicofthethreemonotheistictraditions.Niebuhr(1932,p.53)pointsoutthat“TheomnipotenceofGod,asseenintheworldofnature,investshismoralcharacterwiththequalityoftheabsoluteandtransguresitintoholiness...Thereligiousconscienceissensitivenotonlybecauseitsimperfectionsarejudgedinthelightoftheabsolutebutbecauseitsobligationsarefelttobeobligationstowardaperson.Theholywillisapersonalwill...”Emphasizingarelatedpoint,Armstrong(1993,p.49)pointsoutthatmonotheisticfaithswereuniqueintheirmutualexclusivity,especiallywithrespecttothebeliefinoneGod.Shestates,“...hostilitytowardothergodswasanewreligiousattitude[ofmonotheism].Paganismwasanessentiallytolerantfaith:providedthattheoldcultswerenotthreatenedbythearrivalofanewdeity,therewasalwaysroomforanothergodalongsidethetraditionalpantheon.EvenwherethenewideologiesoftheAxialAgewerereplacingtheoldvenerationofthegods,therewasnosuchvitriolicrejectionoftheancientdeities.”Stark(2001,p.19,34)drawsacriticaldistinctionbetweentheindividual’srela-tionshipwithoneGodundermonotheismandthatwithmultipledeitiesinpolytheism,accordingtowhichcompetitionbetweenvariousdivinebeingsplayedaroleinshorteningtheinteractionsbetweentheadherentsandtheirgods: pensessupernaturalbenetsandpartlybecauseheestablishespublicorderbymethodslessarduousthanthoseofthesoldier,vieswiththatofthesoldierandthelandlord.”Thereareacoupleofpointsthatneedstobeemphasizedhere:First,thesein-creasingreturnsandtheassociatedpowersofmonopolyarewhathelptoexplaintheprominentmonopolyrolesoftheRomanCatholicChurchinWesternEuropeduringthecommonera,theGreekOrthodoxChurchinEasternEuropebetween4thcenturyandthe19thcenturiesC.E.,aswellasthatoftheCaliphateintheUmmayadandAbbasiddynastiesbetween600C.E.and900C.E.andtheOttomanEmpirebetween1517and1924.AsStarkexplainsthefactthatindividualsareheldaccountablebyoneGodfortheirtemporaldeedsandthathisrewardsareoftendelayeduntilafterdeath,“isamajorfactorallowingGodlyreligionstogeneratethelong-termlevelsofcommitmentnecessarytosustainstrongreligiousorganizations.”Second,monopolypowerinreligiousairscoupledwithstateandgovernmentorganizationcarriedaprofoundimpactintheeconomicandsociopoliticalrealms:Duetothefactthatmonotheisminvolvesstrongincreasingreturnstoscalethathelptosustainpowerful(ecclesiastical)institutions,theyspreadrapidlyovervastgeographicareas.2.2.PersonalizedSpiritualExchangeandAccountabilityHumanspiritualityispillaredonthedesiretograspthemeaningofhumanexistenceandrationalize,atleasttoanextent,naturalphenomenathatareincomprehensibletothehumanmind.Withatheisticspiritualmovements,explanationsofsuchphenomenatypicallyinvolvesupernaturalpowersthatdonothavetheconsciouswillthatisrequiredforpersonalizedinvolvementandcommunication.Withpolytheisticfaiths,therearemultipledeitieswhorulevariousaspectsoftemporallife,butthereexistsnonewiththeomnipotencetocontrolallaspectsoftemporalandspiritualexistence.Incontrast,monotheisticfaithsinvolveoneomnipotentdivinebeingwhohasnotonlycontroloverthewholeuniverse,butalsodesireshewisheshumanstofulllwhichhecancommunicateStark(2001,p.15-19)observesthat,bypersonalizingthespiritualexchangeandreenforcingaccountability,theologyandfaithprovideaveryeectivemeanstodealwithhumanwantsanddesiresthatareofteneetingandinherentlyinshortsupply,suchassurvival,health,nancialsecurity,etc.:“BecauseGodsareconsciousbeings,theyarepotentialexchangepart-nersbecauseallbeingsareassumedtowantsomethingforwhichtheymight Abeliefintheafterlifeandadayofjudgementwhichdeterminesone’swell-beinginitimpactsavastarrayoftemporaleconomicandsocialdecisions.Theseinclude,butarenotconnedto,production,legalandextra-legalappropriation,consumption,saving,investment,altruismandeventhedecisiontoengageinviolentconicts.Furthermore,whilereligiousbeliefs,theonenessofGodandadayofjudgementfostercommitment,contractenforcementandacceptanceofprivatepropertywithinsocialorders,thebeliefintheafterlifecomplementsandaugmentsmilitarypowerandhashistoricallyhelpedthevigorwithwhichsocialordersdefendedthemselvesagainstexternalthreats.Hence,someofthesamecentraltenetsofmonotheismthatbredsocialorderdomesticallyhelpedtoenhancemilitarydefenseexternally.Inessence,monotheisttraditionswerethemainimpetusforstabilityinthetransi-tionbetweenprimitivesocialorders,suchashunter/gatherersocieties,tolimitedaccesssocialorders.Forourpurposes,then,wecancategorizethevariouseectsofaper-sonalizedspiritualexchangebetweentheindividualandGodinadditiontothebeliefintheafterlifeandtheJudgementDayaccordingtowhethertheyareintra-socialorextra-socialinnature.2.4.Intra-SocialEectsScholarsoftheology,psychology,sociologyand,tosomeextent,economicstoohaverecog-nizedthemoral,ethicalandegalitarianaspectsofreligion,ingeneral,andmonotheisttraditions,inparticular.Forexample,whilebeingdismissiveofreligioningeneralandarguingthatitbe-longedtorelativelyprimitivestatesofsocialorder,suchasthepre-Industrialera,Sig-mundFreudrecognizedthatitpromotedethicalvaluesandmoralcodesessentialtoasociety’sfunctioning.KarlMarx,whoalsohadnoroomforfaithinhisvisionofsocial-ism,statedthatitwas“...theopiumofthepeople,whichmadethissueringbearable.”AccordingtoArmstrong(1993,p.48)“IthastobesaidthatthisimaginativeportrayalofGodinhumantermshasinspiredasocialconcernthathasnotbeenpresentinHin-duism.AllthreeoftheGod-religionshavesharedtheegalitarianandsocialistethicofAmosandIsaiah.TheJewswouldbetherstpeopleintheancientworldtoestablishawelfaresystemthatwastheadmirationoftheirpaganneighbors.”Alongthesamelines,Farrington(2002)notesthat,whileforsomeempiresreligionwasthemainimpetusfortheirexistence,formostofthemitservedasameansofsocialstabilityandcontrol.Withrespecttotheimpactofeachmonotheistreligiononitsadherentsocieties,the toadvancedliteracyandasteeppathofhumancapitalaccumulationintheJewishcommunitiesoftheMiddleEastbetween64C.E.and200C.E.OthershaveemphasizedthatperhapsthemostimportantlegacyoftherecognitionofProtestantismanditsvariousoshootsbytheCatholicChurchinthe16thcenturywasgreatersocialcohabitationinEurope(see,MucColloch,2003,p.652).WithregardtoIslam,Armstrong(1993)andLewis(2003)discussinsomedetailvariousinstitutionalfeaturesofIslamandtheimpactofthelatteronancientArabcivilizations,suchastheAbbasids,Umayyads,andMamluks.Kuran(2004a,2004b)andLewis(2002)alsoelaborateonhowIslamanditsinteractionswithChristianityandJudaisminuencedtheinstitutionsoftheOttomanEmpire.ThecommonthreadamongtheseworksisthattheIslamicculturehelpedpromotestabilityinsocial,politicalandtheeconomicrealms,althoughinthecaseoftheOttomanEmpiresomeoftheveryinstitutionaltraitsthatpromotedstabilitycameatthecostofdynamicexibility.2.5.Extra-SocialEThereisawell-establishedstrandinthepoliticalscienceliteraturethatfocusesonreli-gioninexplainingthehistoricalpatternsofviolentconictandcooperation;itshowsthaterencesinreligiousbeliefshavehistoricallyinducedviolentconicts.Forinstance,incompilingadatasetwithover300violentconictsaroundtheworldbetween1820and1949,Richardson(1960)revealsthatdierencesofreligion,especiallythoseofChris-tianityandIslam,havebeencausesofwarsandthat,toaweakerextent,“Christianityincitedwarbetweenitsadherents.”Inaddition,Richardsonndsthatwarallianceshadsubduedandpreventedwarsbetweenformerallies,althoughthisinuencedeclinedwiththepassageoftimesincethealliance.AsWilkinson(1980)pointsout,Richardson’sanalysisappliesmorebroadlyinthesensethat“thepropensityofanytwogroupstoghtincreasesasthedierencesbetweenthem(inlanguage,religion,race,andculturalstyle)increase.”ThefallofJerusalemtoIslamiccivilizationsinstigated(dependingonhowyoucount,aboutnine)HolyCrusadesthathadaprofoundimpactonhowtheChristian,MuslimandJewishcivilizationsinteractedsubsequently.Withreferencetothecon-frontationsofOttomansandEuropeans,inparticular,Faroqhi(2004,pp.41-42)notes“...theserivalriesdidnotpreventChristiansfrombothwesternandsouth-easternEuropefromseeingthemselvesasbelongingtooneandthesamereligion,andthissentimentwasespeciallystrongwhentheywereconfrontedwithaMuslimruler.”Andinacom- OneTrueGodcangenerategreatundertakingsoutofprimarilyreligiousmotivations,chiefamongtheseisthedesire,indeedtheduty,tospreadtheknowledgeoftheOneTrueGod...”3.TheEmpiricalAnalysis3.1.DataSources&DescriptionsTestingthetheoryofmonotheismIoutlinedabove,inparticular,theideathatmonothe-ismproducedsociopoliticalstability,requiresestablishingspecicallywhatismeantbyamonotheistsociety.Thus,forpracticalpurposes,Ishalldeneasocietyasmonotheistamajorityofitscitizensadheredtooneofthethreemainmonotheistreligionsand/oritsgovernmentandpoliticalorganizationspromotedoneofthethreemonotheisttraditionsthroughtheirsocial,economicandmilitarypolicies.Onepotentialobjectiontoourdenitionofamonotheistsocietycouldbethatittreatsallindividualsofagivensocietyidentically.Butasweclearlyknow,thereexistsagreatdealofheterogeneityintheindividuals’degreetowhichtheyadheredtoandpracticedthemajoritymonotheismoftheirsociety.Eveninthecaseofforcedconversionsfollowingconquestandsubversivecampaigns,therewasnoguaranteethattheconvertspracticedthedictatedstatemonotheism.ArelevantexampleinthisregardistheplightoftheJewishconvertsinal-Andaluspriorandsubsequenttothepogromsof1391.TheconversionofmanyJews(theconversos)duringthiserainordertoavoidmassacreinChristianhandswasnotenoughtoquellsuspicionsthattheywereinfact‘closetJews’andthosecoreligionistswhodarednottohaveconvertedwerealsopromotingJudaismattheexpenseofChristianity.ThusbegantheinfamousSpanishInquisitionwhichwasthedesignofFerdinandofAragonandIsabellaofCastiletopurgeIberiaofallnon-Christianelements(formoredetails,seeIyigun,2008).Inlightofthispotentialconcern,letusmakethefollowingobservations:First,themainemphasishereisonwhetherthestateandgovernmentapparatusespromotedoneofthemonotheisms–beitviaitsconquestsandtradesorthroughitsimperial,colonialandmissionaryactivities.Theemphasisisnotsomuchonwhetherindividualsproperlyanduniformlyadheredtotheirstate’smonotheism.True,formonotheismstohaveimpartedtheinternalandexternalsociopoliticalbenetsthatwediscussedabove,amajorityofasociety’smemberswouldhavehadtohavepracticedmonotheism.Butthisbringustothesecondpointwhichisthatthisisultimatelyanempiricalmatter.Sincewecannothopetohaveanaccuratemeasureofindividuals’overallintensityofadherencetomonotheismandwe before1750C.E.).Forgeographicalinformationonlandareas,IreliedontheC.I.A.’sTheWorldFactbook.Andforthepopulationestimates,IusedMacEvedyandJones(1978).Forgeographicclassication,IdividedEurope,theMiddleEast,NorthAfrica,Asia,andAmericaintothirtythreeregionsaccordingtotheirhistoricalsignicanceandasclassiedbyAnglinandHamblin.Usingthesehistoricalrecordsandvarioussources,Iwasabletoidentify105civilizationswhichinhabitedoneofthevecontinents.AppendixApresentsthe105limitedaccessordersincludedinmydatasetandlistsmygeographiccatergorizationsandAppendixBsummarizestheirlandareasascompiledfromWorldFactbook.Thereweresomekeydierencesandsimilaritiesbetweenmonotheistlimitedac-cessordersandothers:Onaverage,monotheistcivilizationslastedaboutveandahalfdecadeslessthannon-monotheistsocialorders,withatypicalnon-monotheistciviliza-tionenduringabout375yearsandamonotheistsocietylastingabout320years.Themonotheistsocietiesattainedapeaklandmassofabout2.4million,whichwasroughlyhalfamillionlargerthannon-monotheistsocieties.Forcomparisonpur-poses,whencivilizationsintheAmericasareexcluded,monotheistcivilizationslastedabouttwoandahalfdecadeslonger,whereastheirpeaklandmasswasabout120,000smallerthannon-monotheistorders.Hence,theearlyAmericancivilizationslastedmuchlongerthanaverage(about600years)buttheyoccupiedmoreconcentratedar-easduringtheirreign.MonotheistsocietiesweredistributedfairlyevenlybetweentheMiddleEast,EuropeandNorthAfrica,althoughthereweremoreofthemintheMiddleEast.Incontrast,non-monotheistestablishmentswerepredominantlycenteredintheMiddleEast,AsiaandAmerica.Inthewholesample,thecivilizationthatlastedlongestwasKingdomofElam,apolytheistcultureinwhatisnowregionsofIran.Itisoneoftheoldestrecordedcivilizationsthatexistedbetween2200B.C.E.and644B.C.E.Itlastedforcloseto1600years.TheByzantineEmpire,whichsurvived113decadesinAsiaMinor,MiddleEastandtheBalkansfollowedbytwocivilizationsoftheAmericas,AdenaintheMississippiDeltaandOlmecsintheGulfofMexico,whichbothlasted1100years,weresomeoftheotherdurablecivilizations.ItisnoteworthytopointoutthatamongthesemostdurablesocietiesonlytheByzantineEmpireadheredtoamonotheism.Intermsofthelandmassachievedduringthepeakofempire,theOttomans,variousChinesedynasties,suchasXia,Qin,HanandSong,aswellastheMongolandMacedonianEmpiretopthelist;theOttomanEmpireandtheChinesedynasties hisEmpire.Incontrast,IwilltreattheMongolEmpireasaMuslimcivilizationbecauseGhazanKhan’sadoptionofIslamiswithin46yearsofthefoundationoftheempire,whichbyvariousaccountslasteduntiltheearly-16thcentury.Inallthatfollows,Israel/JudahKingdomalsohasapeculiarroleinthatitrep-resentstheonlyhistoriccivilizationthatadheredtoJudaism.Itisalsoonesocietyforwhichtheexactdatewhenitbegantosubscribetotheunambiguouslymonotheistver-sionofJudaismisinquestion(see,forexample,Armstrong,1993,andStark,2001).Inanycase,noneoftheresultsIdiscussbelowareinuencedbywhetherIsrael/JudahKingdomisclassiedasmonotheistbeforeorafter606B.C.E.,althoughasthesoleJewishmonotheistorderinthesample,itusuallyendsupbeinganoutlierwhichrobustregressiontechniquestypicallyomit.Beforewegettotheempiricalwork,itisworthpointingoutsomesimilaritiesanderencesamongthesocialordersinthedataset.TakeforinstancethecivilizationsoftheAmericaswheretheindigenousculturesofMesaVerdesurvived800yearsinwhatisnowaconnedregioninthestateofNewMexico;Adenalasted1100yearsintheMississippiDelta;Hohokamlivedahalfamillenniuminroughlythesamegeographicregion.DowninSouthandCentralAmerica,TheChavinculturereignedforamil-lenniumintheAndesregionandtheClassicMayacivilizationsurvivedfor650yearsinYucatan.Onaverage,thehistoricalsocialordersoftheAmericascontrolledlimitedgeographicterritoriesovertypicallylongperiodsoftime.Andnoneofthesecivilizationsweremonotheist.Nextexaminethekingdoms,dynastiesandempiresofAsiawhereyoundthatonlytheXiaandShangDynastieslastedmorethan400years,butalloftheChinesedynastiescontrolledavastgeographiclandscapeinwhatisnowmostlyChina.AndtheGuptaEmpireruledforalittleovertwocenturiesinIndia.Thentakenoteofsomeinterestingcivilizationsthatliterallylived,prosperedanddiedbytheswordsoftheirfoundersandrulers.TheMacedonianEmpirelastedonly40yearsbutundertheruleofAlexandertheGreatitbecameavastandmightyempirethatextendedfromtheBalkanstoallofPersia,partsofEgyptandtheMiddleEast.TheMongolEmpirelastedlongerforaboutthreecenturies,butduringthereignofGenghisKhanitraidedterritoriesintheWestandEastsoeectivelyandbrutallythatbetween1205C.E.and1260C.E.ithadmanagedtostretchbetweentheChinaSeaandcentralEurope.TheIslamicSeljukEmpirelastedonly157yearsbutmovingwestfromtheirgeographicoriginsincentralAsia,theywereabletoenterAsiaMinorin1071C.E.which theaveragelimitedaccessorderlastedforalittleover36decades;therewasapositivecorrelationbetweenthedurationlengthofalimitedaccessorderandthebirthofthethreemonotheistreligions;thedurationofalimitedaccessorderwaslongeramongChristianandJewishestablishmentswhereasthisrelationshipwasnegativeforaMuslimlimitedaccessorder;thepeaklandmassofalimitedaccessorderwassmallerforChristianandJewishsocieties,whileitwaspositivelylinkedinthecaseofMuslimlimitedaccesscivilizations.Inbothsamples,thedurationoflimitedaccessordersislinkedpositivelywiththetimeperiod,suggestingthatlimitedaccessorderslastedlongerlaterinhistory.Asshowninthebottompanel,theaveragelandmassoflimitedaccesssocietiesreachedapeakof2millionsquare-kilometersalthoughthisstatisticroseovertimeaswell.Inthecross-countrysampleof105totalcountries,26weresubscribedtooneofthethreemonotheistreligions,whichcorrespondstoaquarterofthewholesample.[Tables1and2abouthere.]3.3.Panel-DataEstimatesMybaselineestimatesarederivedfromthepaneldatausingthefollowingspecication:MONOTKELSTOAOMUDALSMCKRLSTLANLT\LSOAMi,twheretheleft-hand-sidevariablei,tdenotesadummyvariableforthethlimitedaccessorderattime(measuredindecades);ittakesonthevalueofoneifexistsatandzerootherwise.Theexplanatoryvariablesinthisspecicationincludetimeandlimitedaccessorderxedeects,respectivelygivenby,adummyvariableforwhetherthelimitedaccessorderwascharacterizedbyamonotheisticgovernanceMONOTKELSTOAOandtheinteractionofthelatterwiththetimedummy,MONOTLME.Dependingontheparsimonyoftheempiricalspecication,thecontrolvariablesini,tincludevariablesforwhichofthemainthreemonotheisticreligiousfaithshadbeenfoundedattimeMUDALSMCKRLSTLANLT\LSOAM,aswellascontrolsforthenumbersoflimitedaccessordersindierentgeographicregionsattime impactonthepositiveeectofMONOTKELSTOAO;itstillcomesinsignicantandpositive,withtheOLSestimategeneratinganimpactof88percent(whichisinlinewiththeestimateinthecolumn(1)specication)andtheProbitestimateyieldingabouta40percentimpactofmonotheismonthesurvivaloflimitedaccessordersanextradecade.Interestingly,intheseexpandedspecications,thebirthofMUDALSMstillimpactsthesurvivaloflimitedaccessorderspositivelyandthatofChristianityaectsitnegatively,butthatofIslamhasnostatisticallysignicantimpact.Finally,Iaddedanalternativereligionvariable,OAOREOLJLON,whichtakesonthevalueof1ifthelimitedaccessorderwasassociatedwithJudaism,2ifitwaslinkedwithChristianity,3withIslamand0otherwise.Withallthesecontrolvariablesinplace,Ireplicatedmybaselinendingswithadherencetoamonotheisticreligiousfaithproducingastatisticallysignicantandpositiveimpactonthelikelihoodofsurvivalofempires,dynastiesandkingdoms.GiventhisIhavechosennottoreporttheseempiricalndings.[Table3abouthere.]Insum,thesepaneldataestimatesprovidestrongsupportfortheideathatmonothe-isticempires,kingdomsanddynastiesthatexistedintheMiddleEast,NorthAfrica,Europe,AsiaandtheAmericasbetween2500B.C.E.and1750C.E.didsurvivelongerthanothersthatwerenotassociatedwithmonotheisticreligions.Furthermore,thebirthofJudaisminparticularhadapositiveimpactonthissurvivallikelihood,whereasthereissomeevidencetosuggestthatthebirthofChristianityandIslamdidnot.Iinter-pretthislatterndingtobeconsistentwithmoreintensecompetitionbetweenthethreereligioustraditionsastheystartedtocoexistovertime.3.4.Cross-SectionEstimatesInthecross-sectionversionoftheanalysis,IestimateMONOTKELSTOAOMEZLSKCKRLSTLANMUSOLM,(2) Thep-valueonthevariableLSOAMisaround18percent. extentinthecaseofAMERLCA,acontinentonwhichmorelocalizedlimitedaccessorders,suchastheMayans,IncasandAztecs,existedhistorically.Accordingtotherobustregressionestimateincolumn(4),limitedaccessordersinAsiawereroughly80percentlargerinloglandmassthantheircounterpartselsewhere(whichcorrespondstoabout130percentorequivalently3millionlargerlandmassinlevels).AndthoseinAmericaweremuchsmalleringeographicalareacontrollingabout150,000square-kilometersorequivalentlylessthan10percentoftheaveragelandmassoflimitedaccessorders.Next,IdissectMONOTKELSTOAOintothethreereligionstoseeiftheyhaddif-ferentialeectsonlogPEANOANDMASS.Incolumns(2)and(5),IdropMONOTKELSTOAOandaddMEZLSKCKRLSTLAN,andMUSOLM.AsshownonlyMUSOLMexertsastatisticallysignicantandpositiveimpactandMEZLSKhasanegativein-uencealthoughthisisbasedontheoneoutlierobservationofthesoleJewishlimitedaccessorder,IsraelandtheJudahKingdom(whichcoveredthemoderndayIsraeliter-ritoriesandthePalestinianauthorityregion,orabout26,330ofspacerelativetothe2onaverageinthesample).Incolumns(3)and(6)Iaddthetwootherremainingcontrolvariableslistedabove,BLRTK\EAR;andMONOTLME,totheoriginalspecicationsincolumns(1)and(4).Asshown,whenBLRTK\EARMONOTLMEareaddedtothespecications,theresultsderivedaresimilartothosein(1)and(4)butevenstronger.Now,boththeOLSandrobustregressionestimatesproduceasimilar,positiveandstatisticallysig-cantimpactofMONOTKELSTOAOonlogPEANOANDMASS.Furthermore,thesetwoestimatesrevealthattheimpactofmonotheismonthelandmassoflimitedaccesscivilizationswasdecreasingovertimewiththecoecientonMONOTLMEinginsignicantlypositive.Forexample,theneteectofMONOTKELSTOAOPEANOANDMASSwasabout86aroundtheyear1,000C.E.(calculatedas06+000=[Table4abouthere.]NextIexaminedthedegreetowhichthedurationoflimitedaccessordersovertimedependedontheirtheisticcharacteristics.ThisalsohelpsusverifytherobustnessofthendingsreportedinSection3.3.InTable5,Ipresentestimateswherethede-pendentvariableisthelogoftheduration(indecades)oflimitedaccessorder.As Anobviouscheckinvolvescontrollingforthelagged-valueofthedummyvariableforthelefthandside,OAO.InTable6,Ireportestimateswheretheone-periodlaggedvalueoftheleft-handsidevariable,i,t,isincluded.Incolumn(1)and(4),Iaddthisvariabletoaspecicationwhichissimilartotheonesincolumns(3)and(6)ofTable3.Asshown,theinclusionofthislaggeddependentvariablegreatlyimprovesthetofthespecication,butitdoesnotrenderinsignicanttheimpactofthekeyvariableofinterest,MONOTKELSTOAO,onthedurationoflimitedaccessorders:TheimpactofMONOTKELSTOAOismuchsmallerthanthosereportedinTable3whenthelaggedvalueoftheleft-handsidevariableiscontrolledfor(producingabout5to15percentsmallerimpactthanitdidinTable3),butitstillgeneratesastatisticallysignicantandpositiveeect.Whatisimportanttonote,however,isthatneitherofthereligionMUDALSMandLSOAM,arenowstatisticallysignicant.Incolumns(2),(3),(5)and(6),IalsoaddtheinteractionofMONOTKELSTOAOwiththetimetoaccountforatime-variableimpactoftheformer.Oncethiseectistakenintoaccount,Indthatmonotheismstillexertsapositiveandstatisticallysignicantimpactonthedurationoflimitedaccessordersafteraround1,350B.C.E.(thatis,usingcolumn(5)estimates,0.077/0.0002=385decadesintothesampleperiod),evenisaccountedfor.[Table6abouthere.]Asfarasthemainrobustnessconcernsrelatedtothecross-sectionestimates,inTable7,Ireportresultsgeneratedwithsomealternativecontrolvariablesincludedintheempiricalspecications.Forexample,aninterestingmodicationisprovidedincolumns(1)and(4)wherethedummyvariablesforthereligionofthemonotheistor-MEZLSK,CKRLSTLAN,andMUSOLM,arereplacedwiththecodevariableREOLJLON,whichtakesonthevalueof1ifthekingdomisaliatedwithJudaism,2ifitisrelatedtoChristianity,3ifassociatedwithIslamand0otherwise.Asshownincol-umn(1),REOLJLONenterspositivelyandsignicantly,suggestingthatthepeaklandmassoflimitedaccesscivilizationsbecameprogressivelylargerwithlimitedaccessordersinturnbeingMEZLSKCKRLSTLANMUSOLM.Incontrast,theestimateincolumn(4)revealsnoimpactofREOLJLONonthedurationoflimitedaccessorders.Incolumns(2)and(5),IaddtheinteractionofREOLJLONBLRTK\EAR,labeled Alloftheresultsreportedarefromtherobustregressionestimates. wholepopulationiswell-denedandpoliticalrents-seekinghasbeenminimized,hastypicallybeenprecipitatedbyprolongedperiodsofsociopoliticalandeconomicstability(Northetal.,2007).Thus,itisimperativetoresolvehowmonotheismandlimitedaccessorderscametobestronglyintertwinedhistoricallyandascertainwhethermonotheismpromotedamodicumofsociopoliticalandeconomicstabilityinlimitedaccessorders.Inthispaper,Iarguethatthebirthofmonotheismwasamajorbreakthroughinsocialinstitutionaldesignandthat,duetoitsreturnstoscaleadvantagerelativetopoly-theistreligioustraditionsandpaganistsocieties,theriseofmonotheismwasinevitable.Furthermore,Iemphasizethattherearesomeimportantdierencesbetweenthethreemonotheistictraditionsinthedegreetowhichinnovationsinreligiouspracticecouldhavebeencarriedout.Tothisend,Iarguethatmonotheistreligionsinvolveastrongdegreeofincreasingreturnstoscaleandthenaturalmonopolypowerscommensuratewithit.Monotheisticfaithsarealsouniqueinthattheynotonlypersonalizethespir-itualexchangerelationshipbetweentheindividualandtheonedeity,butalso,duetothefactthatthisrelationshipextendsintotheafterlifeaswell,theyenhanceindividualaccountability.Inconjunctionwiththelatter,theyhavetheabilitytoimpactthetimediscountbetweenone’slifetimeandintheafter-life.Therearetwoimplicationsofthesefeatures:First,duetothefactthatinstitutionsofmonotheismpossessedtheecclesias-ticalmonopolypowertolegitimizeorunderminethetemporalpowersofthepoliticalelite,religiousorganizationshadattheirdisposalsignicantpoliticalpower.Second,thefactthatallmonotheistreligionsholdindividualsaccountabletoGodonJudgmentDayaidedcontractenforcement,commitmentandrespectforprivatepropertywithinsocialorders,whilethecombinationofthisaccountabilitywiththestrongeremphasisontheafterlifecomplementedmilitarytechnologiesinexternalconicts.Onthisbasis.Iarguethatmonotheisttraditionswerethemainimpetusforsociopoliticalstability.Then,usinghistoricaldatabetween2500B.C.E.and1750C.E.on105limitedaccessorders,suchasdynasties,kingdomsandempires,IshowthatthebirthofJu-daism,ChristianityandIslamandtheadoptionofmonotheismbylimitedaccessordershadstatisticallysignicanteectsonthelengthofreignaswellastheaveragegeograph-icalsizeofalllimitedaccessorders.Specically,kingdoms,dynastiesandempireslastedabout360yearsonaverageduringthisinterval.Butthosehistoricalcivilizationsthatadoptedmonotheism,regardlessofwhetheritwasJudaism,Christianity,orIslam,lastedanywherebetween50to80percentlongerthannon-monotheistsocialorders.Beyondthegeneralimpactofadherencetomonotheism,Icannotndanyempiricalevidence 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Weber,M.ProtestantEthicandtheSpiritofCapitalism,trans.T.Parsons(NewYork:ScribnerandSons).Wilkinson,D.(1980).DeadlyQuarrels:LewisF.RichardsonandtheStatisticalStudyofWar,(Berkeley,CA:UniversityofCaliforniaPress).Woods,F.A.andA.Baltzly.IsWarDiminishing?AStudyofthePreva-lenceofWarinEuropefrom1450tothePresentDay,(Boston,MA:HoughtonMiCo.). REOLJLON:1forJewish;2forChristianOAO,3forMuslimotherwise.REOLTLMEREOLJLONBLRTK\EARMLDDOEASTNAFRLCAEUROPEASLAAMERLCAContinentaldummiesforpoliticalcapitalsof Table2:DescriptiveStatisticsandtheCorrelationMatrix 2500B.C.E.-1750C.E. TheCorrelationMatrix(PanelData) =44 Mean St.Dev. MONO JUDAISM CHRS= ISLAM REL DEC MTIME 087 281 1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... MONOTHEIST 414 492 060 1 ... ... ... ... ... ... JUDAISM 695 460 117 0001 1 ... ... ... ... ... CHRISTIANITY 413 492 089 0002 556 1 ... ... ... ... ISLAM 268 443 061 0001 401 720 1 ... ... ... RELIGION 913 113 038 965 0001 0001 0001 1 ... ... DECADE 375 1230 110 0001 798 853 767 0001 1 ... MONOTIME 155 812 163 227 499 534 480 219 626 1 2500B.C.E.-1750C.E. TheCorrelationMatrix(Cross-SectionData) =10 Mean St.Dev. DUR PLMASS MONO JWSH CHRS MSLM BYEAR MTIME DURATION 362 273 1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... PLMASS 2032731 2751723 208 1 ... ... ... ... ... ... MONOTHE= 240 429 083 079 1 ... ... ... ... ... JEWISH 010 098 093 072 175 1 ... ... ... ... CHRISTIAN 134 343 038 054 701 039 1 ... ... ... MUSLIM 092 296 195 201 580 032 129 1 ... ... BIRTHYEAR 521 1123 185 205 482 101 346 332 1 ... MONOTIME 2178 4716 172 137 825 298 597 603 532 1 Table4:Cross-SectionEstimates,2500B.C.E.-1750C.E.DependentVariable:logPeakLandMass RobustRegressions (2) (3) (4) MONOTKELST 1 1 ( MLDDOEAST 1 NAFRLCA EUROPE ASLA AMERLCA 1 1 1 2 3 2 MEZLSK 3 3 CKRLSTLAN MUSOLM BLRTK\EAR ( MONOTLME ( No.ofobs. 105 105 105 105 2 Note:*,**respectivelydenotesignicanceatthe5percentand10percentlevels. Table6:FixedEects,PanelDataEstimates,2500B.C.E.-1750C.E.DependentVariable:LimitedAccessOrderDummy,LAO Probit (2) (4) (5) (6) MONOTKELST ( DECADE ( MUDALSM CKRLSTLANLT\ LSOAM MONOTLME ( 1 4 4 4 ( EUROOAO ( MLDEASTOAO ASLAOAO ( AFRLCAOAO ( AMERLCAOAO No.ofobs. 44 2 Note:*,**respectivelydenotesignicanceatthe5percentand10percentlevels. AppendixA:Dynasties,Kingdoms&EmpiresMiddleEast,N.Africa,Europe,Asia(2500B.C.E.to1750C.E.) BirthYear DeathYear Region OldKingdom 2686B.C.E. 2181B.C.E. EarlyDynasty 2900B.C.E. 2371B.C.E. Mesopotamia 2400B.C.E. 2250B.C.E. Syria AkkadianEmpire 2371B.C.E. 2230B.C.E. Mesopotamia Gutains 2230B.C.E. 2112B.C.E. 6 UrDynasty 2112B.C.E. 2004B.C.E. 7 MiddleKingdom 2040B.C.E. 1786B.C.E. Isin,Larsa&Mari 2002B.C.E. 1792B.C.E. Mesopotamia OldBabylonian 1792B.C.E. 1595B.C.E. Hittites 1450B.C.E. 1200B.C.E. KingdomofElam 2200B.C.E. 644B.C.E. NewKingdom 1552B.C.E. 1069B.C.E. 1595B.C.E. 1200B.C.E. Mesopotamia Israel 1200B.C.E. 584B.C.E. Isael/Palestine ArameanKingdom 1350B.C.E. 850B.C.E. Luvians 1200B.C.E. 680B.C.E. 1305B.C.E. 609B.C.E. Mesopotamia 880B.C.E. 590B.C.E. Armenia 730B.C.E. 656B.C.E. Saite 668B.C.E. 525B.C.E. Lydia 680B.C.E. 547B.C.E. 728B.C.E. 559B.C.E. Babylonia 626B.C.E. 539B.C.E. Mesopotamia PersianEmpire 559B.C.E. 330B.C.E. Mesopotamia,Armenia,Isreal/PalestineSyria. PtolemaicEmpire 323B.C.E. 20B.C.E. Isreal/Palestine SeleucidEmpire 305B.C.E. 64B.C.E. Mesopotamia, AppendixB(continued): BirthYear DeathYear Fatimids 909C.E. 1171C.E. ArabianPen.,Mesopotamia,Egypt,N.Africa. 1172C.E. 1250C.E. ArabianPen.,Mesopotamia,Egypt,N.Africa. Mamluks 1250C.E. 1517C.E. ArabianPen.,Mesopotamia,Egypt,N.Africa. OttomanEmpire 1299C.E. 1923C.E. Mesopotamia,Balkans,E.Europe,N.AfricaArabianPen. SonikeDynasty 770C.E. 1240C.E. Ghana 49 SeljukEmpire 1037C.E. 1194C.E. Mesopotamia,Turkestan. Sarmatians 200B.C.E. 200C.E. Balkans,S.Russia. Toucherans 162B.C.E. 230C.E. Turkestan HunEmpire 370C.E. 560C.E. C.Asia,Mongolia,Balkans,E.Europe,S.Russia. Xiongnu 210B.C.E. 155C.E. Mongolia Xian-bi 155C.E. 400C.E. Mongolia Karluks/Oghuz 552C.E. 1070C.E. Turkestan AppendixB(continued): BirthYear DeathYear Region SiuDynasty 589C.E. 628C.E. N.ChinaS.China T’angDynasty 618C.E. 907C.E. N.ChinaS.China YuanDynasty 1279C.E. 1368C.E. N.ChinaS.China MingDynasty 1368C.E. 1644C.E. N.ChinaS.China AngevinDynasty 1154C.E. 1399C.E. W.Europe AxumEmpire 270C.E. 960C.E. Abyssinia 1117C.E. 1974C.E. Almoravids 1056C.E. 1147C.E. N.Africa Almohadids 1130C.E. 1269C.E. Magyars 850C.E. 955C.E. Balkans 82 Avars 562C.E. 805C.E. Bulghars 679C.E. 1018C.E. 1060C.E. 1237C.E. BalkansS.Russia Pechenegs 900C.E. 1070C.E. BalkansS.Russia ChacoCanyon 900C.E. 1150C.E. SW.America MesaVerde 500C.E. 1300C.E. SW.America Hohokam 900C.E. 1400C.E. Adena 1000B.C.E. 100C.E. Hopewell 200B.C.E. 400C.E. MississippiCulture 800C.E. 1500C.E. 1500B.C.E. 400B.C.E. G.ofMexico MonteAlban 200C.E. 700C.E. Toltecs 900C.E. 1156C.E. 1325C.E. 1519C.E. Teotihuacan 1C.E. 650C.E. Kaminaljuyu&Izapa 300B.C.E. 300C.E. AppendixB:RegionsoftheWorldandtheirLandAreas(inTheNearEast:Anatolia770,760Armenia28,400Iran1,636,000Israel20,330Mesopotamia432,162PalestinianTerritories6,000Syria184,050TheEasternMediterranean200,000CentralAsia:Afghanistan647,500China(South)4,663,205China(North)4,663,205India2,229,892India(Northwest)743,298Mongolia1,564,116Pakistan778,720SouthernRussia2,919,800Tajikistan142,700Turkestan1,190,900Europe:Britain241,590WesternContinentalEurope1,295,707CentralContinentalEurope765,457EasternContinentalEurope553,699TheBalkans616,769NorthAfrica:Egypt995,450N.Africa(Northeastexc.Egypt))1,923,140N.Africa(West)2,828,290TheAmericas:Yucatan60,000Andes60,000 AppendixC:MonotheistDynasties,Kingdoms&Empires Duration Europe N.Africa M.East 2,419,330 4 9 7 1 11 50 52 54 56 58 60 62