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Torture and CIA Black Sites Dr Vincent Charles Keating Center for War Studies University of Southern Denmark 17 June 2017 Donald Trump on Torture Would Donald Trump use torture if elected President ID: 625762

torture cia states redacted cia torture redacted states cooperation host program support sites black anti trump bribery norm political

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Slide1

Trump, Torture, and CIA Black Sites

Dr. Vincent Charles KeatingCenter for War StudiesUniversity of Southern Denmark17 June 2017Slide2

Donald Trump on Torture

Would Donald Trump use torture if elected President?Probably: made statements in support of torture many times during the campaignDefense based onEffectiveness of tortureRelative barbarity of the enemy

2Slide3

Pro-Torture Statements

I would bring back waterboarding, and I'd bring back a hell of a lot worse than waterboarding. We're like a bunch of babies, but we're going to stay within the laws. But you know what we're going to do? We're going to have those laws broadened. They say, what do you think about waterboarding? I said I like it a lot. I don't think it's tough enough. You have to fight fire with fire (Feb 2016)

We have to play the game the way they're playing the game. You're not going to win if we're soft and they're, they have no

rules (Mar 2016)

I’m not saying it changed my mind. Look we have people that are chopping off heads and drowning people in steel cages and we’re not allowed to

waterboard

.(Dec 2016)

3Slide4

From Idea to ExecutionWill Donald Trump be able to use torture if elected President

?Just because a president wishes to support a policy does not mean it will happen (Obama on Guantanamo)Relevant factorsDomestic

audience

Bureaucratic audience

International

audience

How strong was the cooperation in the CIA black site program?

4Slide5

CIA Black SitesSeveral states cooperated with the CIA to host black sites

PolandRomaniaLithuaniaThailandAfghanistanWhat

does this say about the anti-torture

norm, and therein Trump’s ability to bring torture back?

5Slide6

State of the Research

Rendition research generally focussed on Legal implications of the programDomestic politics of decision makingPlight of the individual detainees

When cooperation mentioned, focus on either ethical culpability or Western hypocrisy

‘European politicians, faced with the classic dilemmas of conducting counter-terrorism in a liberal society, have dealt with this by playing to public opinion with their criticisms of American covert activity; meanwhile they have approved discreet cooperation with the very same programmes.’ (Aldrich, 2009)

6Slide7

Central ArgumentUnited States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence report (2014)

provided further evidence that cooperation did occurDefection of states, particularly liberal democratic states, suggests a problem with the anti-torture norm

Senate Report actually shows serious problems in cooperation, suggesting anti-torture norm had causal effects

7Slide8

Analysis of Documents

Revolves around two questionsWhat evidence is there that the anti-torture norm hindered cooperation?Was there a difference between when the program was secret?Looking particularly forCoercion/bribery for complianceAwareness of political problems associated with violating norms

8Slide9

Coercion/Bribery

CIA spent tens (hundreds?) of millions of dollars to initiate cooperation and keep it going‘to encourage governments to clandestinely host CIA detention sites, or to increase support for existing sites, the CIA provided millions of dollars in cash payments to foreign government officials.’ – Senate reportRomania‘identify ways to support the [REDACTED] in Country [REDACTED] to ‘demonstrate to [REDACTED] and the highest levels of the [Country [REDACTED]] government that we deeply appreciate their cooperation and support’ for the detention program

.’ – CIA HQ to CIA Station

9Slide10

Coercion/BriberyLithuania

CIA ‘also offered $[REDACTED] million to the [REDACTED] to “show appreciation” for the [REDACTED] support for the program,’ which ultimately led to the approval of the expansion of the CIA facility.‘the CIA and [REDACTED] developed complex mechanisms to [REDACTED] in order to provide the $[REDACTED] million to the [REDACTED].’

Coercion/Bribery not sufficient to say that human rights norms led to this outcome

10Slide11

Black Site Host Reactions

PolandWanted a Memorandum of Understanding covering roles and responsibilities of CIAWere given more money insteadThailandWidespread political opposition to site that required constant political intervention and fiscal support

11Slide12

CIA ReactionsCIA legal was concerned that other states might

‘take a different view of the detention and interrogation practices employed by [the CIA],’ Suggested that some states should be avoided because of thisWorry that probability of exposure could ‘inflame public opinion against the host government’ – Director of Counterterrorism to Director of Central Intelligence

Possibility of seriously damaging bilateral relations

12Slide13

Effect of the Torture Scandals

CIA in 2005 starts looking for exit strategy, citing ‘unstable relations with host governments and its difficulty in identifying additional countries to host CIA detention facilities.’ Increased fear from hosting states of revelation‘Our liaison partners who host these sites are deeply concerned by [REDACTED] press leaks, and they are increasingly

skeptical

of the [U.S. government’s] commitment to keep secret their cooperation…. A combination of press leaks, international scrutiny of alleged [U.S. government] detainee abuse …. Is eroding our partners’ trust in U.S. resolve to protect their identities and supporting roles.’

13Slide14

Effect of the Torture Scandals

CIA expectation that most host states will request closure of the facilities due to the ‘huge risk’ attached to themAt very least, unlikely to take on additional detainees‘continuation of status quo will exacerbate tensions in these very valuable relationships and cause them to withdraw their critical support and cooperation with the [U.S. government].’ – CIA memo to CIA

diriector

14Slide15

Effect of Revelation of Program

Published in Washington Post in November 2005Immediate official protests from two hosting statesIncreased worry from CIA about political fallout‘if another shoe were to drop,’ then there would be ‘considerable ramifications for U.S. relations with [REDACTED] on a number of issues that depended on U.S. credibility in the area of human rights

.’ – CIA cable

Some cooperating states immediately ended cooperation

Those that remained placed heavy restrictions on movement of detainees, particularly for medical attention

No new states could be found to make up for losses

15Slide16

ConclusionCooperation was costly and unstable even when the program was secret

Cooperation became nearly impossible once the program was revealedNuanced optimism: does not ignore that states cooperated for torture, but important to note that anti-torture norm still has serious effects

16Slide17

17