UNIFIED GLOBAL COUPLED SYSTEM (UGCS) FOR WEATHER AND CLIMATE PREDICTION - PowerPoint Presentation

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UNIFIED GLOBAL COUPLED SYSTEM (UGCS) FOR WEATHER AND CLIMATE PREDICTION

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Saha-UMAC-09Aug2016

Atmosphere, Land, Ocean, Seaice, Wave, Chemistry, IonosphereData Assimilation cycleAnalysis frequency Hourly

Forecast length

9 hours

Resolution 10 km

Ensemble members 100Testing regime

3 years (last 3 years)Upgrade frequency 1 year

UNIFIED GLOBAL COUPLED SUITE

DATA ASSIMILATION

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Atmosphere, Land, Ocean, Seaice, Wave, Chemistry, IonosphereWeather ForecastsForecast length 10 daysResolution

10 km

Ensemble members 10/dayTesting regime

3 years (last 3 years)

Upgrade frequency 1 year

UNIFIED GLOBAL COUPLED SUITE

WEATHER FORECASTS

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Atmosphere, Land, Ocean, Seaice, Wave, Chemistry, IonosphereSub-seasonal forecastsForecast length

6

weeksResolution

40 kmEnsemble members

20/day

Testing regime 20 years (1999-present)Upgrade frequency 2

year

UNIFIED GLOBAL COUPLED SUITE

SUB-SEASONAL FORECASTS

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Atmosphere, Land, Ocean, Seaice, Wave, Chemistry, IonosphereSeasonal ForecastsForecast length

9

monthsResolution

60 kmEnsemble members 40 (lagged)

Testing regime 40 years (1979-present)

Upgrade frequency 4 year

UNIFIED GLOBAL COUPLED SUITE

SEASONAL FORECASTS

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Atmosphere, Land, Ocean, Seaice, Wave, Chemistry, IonospherePredictions for all spatial and temporal scales will be ensemble based.There will be a

continuous

process of making coupled Reanalysis

and Reforecasts for every implementation (weather, sub-seasonal and seasonal)

UNIFIED GLOBAL COUPLED SUITE

NEW PARADIGM

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Atmosphere: Hybrid 4D-EnVAR approach using a 80-member coupled forecast and analysis ensemble, with Semi-Lagrangian dynamics, and 128 levels in the vertical hybrid sigma/pressure coordinates.Ocean/Seaice: GFDL MOM5.1/MOM6 and/or HYCOM for the ocean and CICE/SIS2/KISS for sea-ice coupling, using the NEMS coupler.

Aerosols: Inline GOCART for aerosol coupling.

Waves: WAVEWATCH III for wave coupling.

Land: LIS/Noah Land Model for land coupling.Ionosphere: Inline Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) –up to 600km.

PROOF OF CONCEPT

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Coupled Model Ensemble ForecastNEMSOCEANSEA-ICE

WAVE

LAND

AERO

ATMOS

Ensemble Analysis (N Members)

OUTPUT

Coupled Ensemble Forecast (N members)

INPUT

Coupled Model Ensemble Forecast

NEMS

OCEAN

SEA-ICE

WAVE

LAND

AERO

ATMOS

NCEP Coupled

Hybrid Data

Assimilation

and Forecast System

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Status Report

Current status and future plans:

Work being done to add cold start and restart capabilities (with Cecelia’s group)

Merge of this system to the GSM/NEMS/NUOPC trunks.

NEMS/GSM parallel scripts to be modified to add coupling options.

Begin science (physics) testing for forecast-only runs for weather, sub-seasonal and seasonal runs, using CFSR initial conditions.

Begin testing for data assimilation, using the coupled model to generate coupled 9-hour forecasts as background guess for separate atmospheric, land, ocean,

seaice

, aerosols and wave DA.

Begin testing WWIII NEMS version with one-way coupling first (with the wave group)

Adapt

the NEMS-based NGAC-GOCART system to the

UGCS (with the aerosol group)

Begin work of writing the NEMS/CAPS for the MOM6 ocean model and SIS2 seaice model (with GFDL and Cecelia’s group)

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Challenges

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One

:

Working with six different groups to form a truly unified system, that will work for all spatial and temporal scales, requires buy-in from all the

groups,

governance at the highest

levels, and all-inclusive model testing protocols.

Two:

Working with our collaborators on the outside to make this a true community

model,

e.g

GMTB and other

test beds, with a comprehensive hierarchy of steps in model

development.Three: Resources for both labor and computations to implement this into operations with attendant reanalysis/reforecast for every implementation. Thinking outside the box, this requires a third computer or perhaps cloud computing options.