Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary 1 The Global Economy Marked by Uncertainty Global economy will grow 31 in 2013 amp 38 in 2014 Slow recovery of the US 19 for 2013 Europe grew by 12 in the second quarter after 6 quarters of negative growth 04 for 2013 ID: 791864
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Slide1
THE INTER-REGIONAL SOUTH-SOUTH COOPERATION FOR INCLUSIVE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Alicia BárcenaExecutive Secretary
1
Slide2The Global Economy Marked by Uncertainty
Global economy will grow 3.1% in 2013 & 3.8% in 2014.Slow recovery of the US (1.9% for 2013)Europe grew by 1.2% in the second quarter after 6 quarters of negative growth (-0.4% for 2013)China grew by 7.5% in the second quarter (7.5% for 2013)The favourable financial situation in developed countries contrasts with a weak real economyGrowth in developing countries is slowing
More restrictive financial scenario is expected with the withdrawal of QE in the United States
2
Slide3Slowdown in world trade to 5.2%
International trade volumes and world GDP, 1980-2013(Percentages)Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of information from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Trade Organization (WTO).3
Slide4SHARE OF ADVANCED AND EMERGING ECONOMIES IN WORLD GDP
(1980-2018, percent of total GDP measured in current US$)ForecastActual
Emerging economies represented 38% of world GDP in 2012. It is expected that emerging economies’ share in world GDP will exceed that of advanced economies in the coming decades.
% of total
Source: On the basis of data from World Economic Outlook Database, April (2013)
20%
38%
Greater growth dynamism of the South …
4
Slide5GDP GROWTH RATES BY REGIONS, 2009-2018
Source: ECLAC based on official data from DESA-UN, ESCAP-UN and 2018 IMF estimates. 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2018
World
-2.1
4.0
2.8
2.3
2.3
3.1
4.1
Euro Zone
-4.4
2.0
1.4
-
0.6
-0.4
1.1
1.6
United States
-2.82.51.82.81.92.63.1Latin America and the Caribbean-1.95.64.33.03.04.23.7Developing Asia7.79.87.86.46.36.56.7Sub-Saharan Africa2.65.65.54.95.06.05.7
The South led the recovery of the world economy after the global crisis, and will be more dynamic than advanced economies for some time to come...
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Slide6South-South trade grew as a proportion of global trade and it could exceed North-North trade by 2017
EVOLUTION OF WORLD EXPORTS BY REGION, 1985-2020(Percentages of total exports)Fuente: ECLAC, based on COMTRADE Database and International Trade and Integration Division projections from 2012 onwards
Increasing relevance of South-South relations in trade…
6
Slide7Between 2005 and 2012, developing countries increased their share both as receptors of FDI flows (from 37% to 58%) and as source of FDI flows (from 17% to 27%).
Almost 60% of FDI originating from developing countries corresponds to South-South flows.
The most dynamic countries in South-South FDI are Russia, China, South Africa, Malaysia, Singapore, Mexico and Brazil.
With the exception of China, India and Brazil, most South-South FDI flows are intra-regional
An important characteristic of South-South flows is that they are in general “
greenfield
” investment as opposed to South-North FDI flows that are in general mergers and/or acquisitions.
WORLD: OUTFLOWS OF FDI
(in US$ billions)
WORLD: INFLOWS OF FDI, 1990-2011
(In US$ billions)
58%
27%
…and in investment flows…
7
Slide8Several mega-regional negotiations under way are reshaping the global trade landscape
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States, Viet Nam Transatlantic Trade and Investment PartnershipBetween the United States and the European UnionRegional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Republic of Korea and the 10 members of ASEAN
China-Japan-Republic of Korea Free Trade Agreement
European Union-Japan
Free Trade Agreement
These processes aim to create large economically integrated areas at trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific levels
8
Slide9These mega-negotiations seek to link
the world’s three major “factories”Regional Comprehensive Economic PartnershipTrans-Pacific Partnership
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
European Union-Japan
Free Trade Agreement
9
Slide10…but in LAC the development model is reaching boundaries
EconomicBetter macroeconomic indicators: international reserves, low public debt, low inflation but with less fiscal spaceGrowth based on consumption and exports of natural resources not on investmentGovernance of natural resources should be a priorityExport based structures are limited: 23% to 1.4% and imports > exportsProductive structure is based on static comparative advantages and lags in innovation, science and technology
SocialImproving poverty rates but reductions have reached a plateau
High labour market informality with low productivity
Segregation: urban/ public vs private goods
Environmental
Energy and water: scarcity-Land degradation and biodiversity loss
High incidence of natural disasters
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Slide11Growth is more based on consumption and net exports rather than on investment
LAC: GDP and determinants of growth, 2012-2013(Percentages based on dlls of 2005)LAC: Exports values of goods 2000-2013 (Percentages)
Fuente:
Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de cifras oficiales.
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Slide12Poverty and extreme poverty are at their lowest rates in 20 years but LAC remains as the most unequal region in the world
LATIN AMERICA: POVERTY AND INDIGENCE, 1980-2012 a(Percentages)
LATIN AMERICA AND OTHER REGIONS OF THE WORLD: GINI
CONCENTRATION COEFFICIENT, AROUND 2009
a
12
Slide13Latin America and the Caribbean: quantifying the set of targets
Source:: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of CEPALSTAT and special tabulations of data from household surveys conducted in the respective countries.
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Slide14The low performance of MDG 8: Global Partnership for Development, the goal for which the region lags furthest behind
AVERAGE TARIFFS IMPOSED BY DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS FROM DEVELOPING AND LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES(Percentages)ESTIMATES OF AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES(Billions of dollars and percentage of GDP)
MONTHLY AVERAGE COST OF 1 MBPS OF FIXED BROAD BAND
(Percentages of GDP per capita)
AID FOR TRADE BY REGION
(Billions of dollars at 2009 prices)
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Slide15The
demographic transition is changing the development profile: some societies are still enjoying a demographic dividend, while others are entering the ageing process Urbanization with segregation: megacities, medium-sized cities contains 80% of the population, public vs private goods
Public safety has emerged as one of the main issues of concern in Latin America and the Caribbean
Climate change and vulnerability
(SIDS) and risks related to disasters are emerging as critical issues for the region
The
official development assistance
to middle-income countries is declining: fiscal space is stretching
Fiscal policies:
spending and taxation
should become more progressive
…
And faces several emerging challenges
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Slide16Towards the future we want: a regional perspective of Post 2015 agenda
Fulfillment of MDGs: necessary but not sufficientFrom basic needs to closing structural gapsMove from national- developing-countries-oriented targets to universal objectives, with revived metrics Equality, sustainability and productivity at the centerThe post-2015 development agenda requires a
global financing and technology transfer covenantConcepts with a long-term,
rights-based
approach
The goal: more
resilient, self-sufficient, secure and balanced
economies
Sustained
shared prosperity
Transparent, accountable global governance;
rule of law
16
Slide17The regions and the Post-2015 AgendaTrying to fulfill the MDGs
Move towards a universal agenda-SDGs with equality and sustainability at the centerFinancing for the development cannot be fragmentedMobilization of resources should include: domestic, regional and global which requires an innovative architectureFinancial flows beyond ODA (FDI, remmitances, blending, guarantee funds)17
Slide18….Makes more critical the role of the regional spaceComplementarities between global and regional institutions, in an asymmetric international context
Protection of the weaker players (SIDS, Landlocked, LDCs)A greater sense of belonging to regional and subregional institutions (CELAC, UNASUR, Mercosur, CAN, SICA and CARICOM)With interdependence, cooperation is shifting towards the subregional and regional levelsDeeper intra-regional integration: 19% regional (25% Central America; 25% Mercosur; 4% Pacific Alliance18
Slide19BRICS. Member of think tanks network on sustainable development in the BRICS countries.MDG indicators: the Cost of Hunger in Africa (COHA) AU, WFP, UNECA.Technical assistance to adapt a methodology in the African context and implement national studies.
Social protection. Participation in interregional studies and disseminating LAC policy experiences to other regions. Specially on CCT
programmes
.
e-health and e-education
.
Disseminating best
practices and promoting networking on
the use of information and communications technologies in social issues.
Cooperation between regions: social issues
Social
Issues
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Slide20ACCESS TO THE REDATAM SERVER FOR ON-LINE PROCESSING, 2011-2013
REDATAM: Promoting the use and analysis of information on censuses and surveys
Cooperation between regions: population
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Slide21Cooperation between regions: environment
Access to information, environmental justice and participation:In the framework of the application of Principle 10 of the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development in Latin American and the Caribbean (Rio, 2012), ECLAC and the Aarhus Secretariat (ECE) have initiated a permanent collaborative work to exchange experiences and deepener environmental democracy. Climate Change:“The United Nations Regional Commissions and the Climate Change Challenges” (2009)
Joint side events at the Conferences of the Parties to the UNFCCC
Human Settlements:
Joint Project “Eco-efficient and sustainable urban infrastructure development in Asia and Latin America” (ESCAP - ECLAC - UN-HABITAT):
14 case studies, 2 Seminars (Bangkok & Santiago)
“Are we building competitive and livable cities?
Guidelines for developing eco-efficient and socially
inclusive infrastructure” (2011)
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Slide22Cooperation on Natural Disasters
:
Slide23There is potential for further inter-regional cooperation
Governance of natural resourcesAssessment and risk reduction of natural disasters
to build
resilience
Exchange of
experiences
on
green
technology
Getting
ready
for
the
big
data
revolution
and
national
accounting beyond GDPSharing criteria and experiences on FDIContributing to a multilateral global deal for financial and trade inclusionExchange of urbanization process23
Slide24SDGs: an oportunity for inter-regional cooperationRight-based –universal approach
Erradication of extreme extreme poverty is possible in the next decade with productivity and decent jobs Equality at the center, in particular women autonomyA technological paradigm shift towards sustainable development.Transformational-universal goals & targets are neededUniversal global partnerships (financing, technologies, trade)Critical aspirations of society towards shared prosperity24
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