as a leading indicators for business demography Preliminary results Authors F Bacchini P Cella R Iannaccone C Viviano Speaker Caterina ID: 916135
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Using business cycle indicators as a leading indicators for business demography Preliminary resultsAuthors: F. Bacchini*, P. Cella**, R. Iannaccone*, C. Viviano**Speaker: Caterina Viviano*Department for statistical production - Data analysis and economic, social and environmental research – Istat, Italy **Directorate for Economic Statistics - Istat, Italy
Meeting of the Group of Experts on Business Registers
Organised jointly by UNECE, Eurostat and OECD
Geneva, Switzerland - 30 September – 2 October 2019
Slide2OutlineShort-term indicators are timely compared to the business demography – i.e diffusion indexes for manufacturing and servicesTest for the relationship between diffusion and birth and death ratesDifferences in the results amid births and deaths and sectors
Slide3BackgroundLong time series of BD indicators (births and deaths rates) Good quality at the expense of timelinessPossibility of estimationShort terms indicators provides timely info on BD are supplied by Countries to Eurostat and OECD databases (quarterly):New creations Bankruptcies not harmonized, high dependence upon national legal framework, economy
Slide4New Creations vs real birthsThe aim of this study is to exploit how business cycle impacts on BD dataLeading used indicators are the following:
Slide55Business cycle indicators: diffusion indicesManufacturing: 3 digit monthly indices of productionServices: deflated turnover 2 digits
Slide66Manufacture: births
Slide77Manufacture: deaths
Slide88Services: deaths
Slide9Preliminary results and next stepsBusiness cycle indicators seem related to the business demography Evidences for manufacturing are more robust than for services Relationship for deaths stronger than for birthExtend the analysis for sectors and with other indicators for business cycle
Slide10Thank you for the attention!viviano@istat.it