PPT-OBSTACLES   Uncertainty

Complexity High risk consequences COPING TECHNIQUES   Deep Breathing Simple but effective method of relaxation Take a number of deep breaths and relax your body further with each breath Progressive Muscular Relaxation. Nick Bloom (Stanford & NBER). Harvard, April 23. rd. and 30. th. Talk summarizes . a forthcoming JEP article (& a work-in-progress longer JEL). Talk summarizes . a forthcoming JEP article (& a work-in-progress longer JEL). in the Defense Budget. Todd Harrison. Delays in Defense Appropriations Bills. 2. Average Delay FY77-FY13: . 43 days. Average Delay FY10-FY13: . 134 days. Budgetary Uncertainty. 3. Budgetary Uncertainty. Joseph B. Kadane. Carnegie Mellon University. kadane@stat.cmu.edu. “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future”. Niels. Bohr. Robert Storm Peterson. Yogi Berra. Samuel Goldwyn. Mark Twain. Nick Bloom (Stanford & NBER). Harvard, April 23. rd. and 30. th. Talk summarizes . a forthcoming JEP article (& a work-in-progress longer JEL). Talk summarizes . a forthcoming JEP article (& a work-in-progress longer JEL). John L. Campbell. 1. , Ruth D. Yanai. 2. , Mark B. . Green. 1,3. , Carrie . Rose . Levine. 2. , Mary Beth Adams. 1. , Douglas A. Burns. 4. ,. . Donald C. Buso. 5. , . Mark E. Harmon. 6. , Trevor Keenan. Duncan Green (@fp2p). Oxfam. March 2014. In development, some systems are more or less linear . But many are not. So is Traditional Planning a good use of our time?. For. Allocating $. Building common goals and approaches. Inclined Manometer. http://. www.dwyer-inst.com. U-tube Manometer. Sensitivity. Inclined Manometer. http://. www.dwyer-inst.com. U-tube Manometer. Pitot. Static Probe. Measures fluid velocity . v. Based on Bernoulli’s law. . Avoidance. in 10 minutes. Geert Hofstede. January. 2015. Origin. of the term “. uncertainty. . avoidance. ”. One. of the . key. . concepts. in a “. behavioral. . theory. of the . firm. “The . scientist has a lot of experience with ignorance and doubt and uncertainty, and this experience is of very great importance, I think. . When . a scientist does not know the answer to a problem, he is ignorant. When he has a hunch as to what the result is, he is uncertain. And when he is pretty damn sure of what the result is going to be, he is still in some doubt. Diversity Task Force of the . USMS Board of Directors . USMS Convention, 2016 Atlanta, GA. Diversity-Opportunities and Obstacles 2016 USMS Convention-Atlanta Slide . 1. Diversity Workshop Agenda. environmental research. Liew Xuan Qi (A0157765N). Cheong Hui Ping (A0127945W). Hong Chuan Yin (A0155305M). Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making. OUTLINE. Accelerator Pre-alignment background. Uncertainty and GUM supplement 1. PACMAN pre-alignment budgeting . CMM uncertainty modeling. Thermal uncertainty compensation and modeling. First stochastic modeling results. Manipulating symbols. Last class. Typology of signs. Sign systems. Symbols. Tremendously important distinctions for informatics and computational sciences. Computation = symbol manipulation. Symbols can be manipulated without reference to content (syntactically. Brian Clough. 1. , Matt Russell. 1. , Grant Domke. 2. , Chris Woodall. 2. . 2016 Western Mensurationist’s Meeting. 1. University of Minnesota. 2. US Forest Service Northern Research Station. 3 tiered approach for identifying and .