Security and Stability Issues in the - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Security and Stability Issues in the

Americas

Mike Hammer, Deputy Commandant

The Eisenhower School, National Defense UniversitySlide2

“No other region of the world impacts U.S. security and prosperity as directly as Latina America and the Caribbean.

The U.S. trades more with the region than with any other, and in no other part of the world do bad conditions so immediately impact the

U

nited States.”

Dr. R. Evan Ellis, professor for LAC at U.S. Army War CollegeSlide3

Latin America – a priority across administrationsSlide4

Setting the tone for relationship with the Hemisphere

President George W.

Bush: Vision

for making this the Century of the

Americas

First trip was to Mexico and he then attended the Quebec Summit of the Americas in April

"We have a great vision before us:

a fully democratic hemisphere, bound together by good will and free trade

. 

 That is a tall order.  It is also the chance of a lifetime.  And it is the responsibility we share

.

We

have put all of our efforts as leaders of our democracies to strengthen our democracies. And as we have said throughout this summit, we must move from a political democracy to an economic democracy. Through that, we can seek improvement of living conditions of the most poor and the neediest amongst us.

If there is something that has brought us together or which unites us or what calls us here today at this summit—what calls 34 heads of state of the Americas together—what calls us together is our concern for human beings and particularly to improve the conditions of life, as I said, for the poorest and the most needy

.”

3

rd

Summit of the Americas, Quebec City, April 2001 Slide5

Setting

the tone

for

relationship with the

Hemisphere

President

Obama

:

Vision – equal partnership based on mutual respect, common interests

-- First trip to Canada, visited Mexico in April, and attended Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago also in April“I pledge to you that we seek an equal partnership.  There is no senior partner and junior partner in our relations; there is simply engagement based on mutual respect and common interests and shared values.  So I'm here to launch a new chapter of engagement that will be sustained throughout my administration…As neighbors, we have a responsibility to each other and to our citizens.  And by working together, we can take important steps forward to advance prosperity and security and liberty.”5th Summit of the Americas Trinidad and TobagoApril 2009 Slide6

Obama Administration’s Legacy

Central America -

Building a Stronger Partnership

The Administration secured $750

million in funding from Congress to implement its Strategy in support of the Northern Triangle’s Alliance for Prosperity Plan, and other regional priorities.  

Caribbean Clean Energy Initiative

Support for Colombia Peace Deal

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)Re-establishing relations with CubaSlide7

President Donald J. Trump

First calls: Mexican President and Canadian Prime Minister

Received Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and Peruvian President

Kuczynski

at the White House

Calls to Brazilian President

Temer

, Colombian President Santos and Chilean President BacheletSlide8

Top 10 Foreign Policy Challenges

North Korea

ISIS

Syria

China – trade / South China SeaIran – Nuclear dealIsraeli - Palestinian peace process Ukraine

Future of NATO / EU

Cyber realm

VenezuelaSlide9

Following

from Council

on Foreign Relations Center for Preventive Action – preventive priorities survey 2017:

Tier II

Venezuela – deepening economic crisis & political instability leading to violent civil

unrest.

Potential destabilizing effect on Colombia.

(Likelihood: high Impact: low)Tier IIIColombia – political instability following the collapse of peace agreement between the government and the FARC causing a resumption of the insurgencyContinuing concerns in 2017 (not in the top 30):Increased gang-related violence in countries in Central America Northern Triangle --El Salvador, Guatemala, HondurasEscalation of organized crime-related violence in Mexico and potential economic and political instability resulting from U.S. trade and immigration policiesSlide10

Additional factors that could affect stability

Haiti – migrant crisis

Cuba

Brazil’s domestic situationSlide11

Security Challenges in the Hemisphere

Transnational Criminal Organizations:

narco

&

human trafficking

Outside Actors: Russia, China, Iran Slide12

Priorities

Effective

Troubleshooting

:

Venezuela – failed state? Implications for neighbor Colombia, and U.S.

Central America – unaccompanied children, migration. Institution building, effective law enforcement.

Engage like-minded partners

: Colombia, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Costa RicaSlide13

Priorities

Our relationship with our neighbors Canada and Mexico

Canada

The United States and Canada share the longest international border in the world and our bilateral relationship is one of the closest and most extensive in the world. High volume of bilateral trade—more than

$1.8 billion a day in goods and services

—and in people-to-people contact. About 380,000 people cross between the countries every day.

U.S. defense arrangements with Canada are more extensive than with any other country. 

Mexicothe U.S.’s second largest export market totaling $236 billion in 2015—with Mexicans buying everything, on the manufacturing side, from U.S.-made vehicles, machinery, minerals, and plastics to $18 billion of U.S. agricultural products.  1.4 billion dollars of two-way trade and hundreds of thousands of legal border crossings each day. A million American citizens live in Mexico. U.S. tourists to Mexico numbered over 20 million in 2013.NAFTAThe agreement collectively accounts for 28 percent of world GDP—though only 7 percent of global population—and has linked the U.S.’s two largest trade partners together since 1994 into a geography-busting-mega-market for the U.S. representing more than 30 percent of the U.S.’s export market.Slide14

Priorities

Maximize relationship with

Brazil

Consolidate Colombia gains

Manage potential crises

that

could pop-up

mass

migration? natural disasters? democratic disruptions /coup(s)?Slide15

Joint Inter-Agency Task Force - SOUTH

Mission – counter-drug

&

counter trafficking

More targets than resources Slide16

Southwest Border

Migration

March

8, 2017 According to U.S. Customs and Border

Protection illegal border crossing data through the month of February shows an unprecedented decline in traffic. From January to February, the flow of illegal border crossings as measured by apprehensions and the prevention of inadmissible persons at our southern border dropped by 40 percent.

The drop in apprehensions shows a marked change in trends. Since the Administration’s implementation of Executive Orders to enforce immigration laws, apprehensions and inadmissible activity is trending toward the lowest monthly total in at least the last five years. This change in the trend line is especially significant

because CBP historically sees a 10-20 percent increase in apprehensions of illegal immigrants from January to February.  Instead, this year we saw a drop from 31,578 to 18,762 persons - a 40 percent decline

.

The decrease is also encouraging news because it means many fewer people are putting themselves and their families at risk of exploitation, assault and injury by human traffickers and the physical dangers of the treacherous journey north.CBP remains committed to carrying out fair, impartial and humane enforcement of the nation’s immigration laws. We will remain vigilant to respond to any changes in these trends, as numbers of illegal crossings typically increase between March and May. However, the early results show that enforcement matters, deterrence matters, and that comprehensive immigration enforcement can make an impact. John Kelly, Secretary of Homeland SecuritySlide17

More non-Mexicans than Mexicans

were apprehended at U.S. borders in fiscal year 2016 for the second time on record (

the first was in fiscal 2014

.) In fiscal 2016, 192,969 Mexicans were apprehended, a sharp drop from a peak of 1.6 million apprehensions in 2000. The decline in apprehensions reflects the decrease in the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants coming to the U.S.Slide18

Defense

Strategic Foresight Initiative

Visualizing Hemispheric Defense and Security Readiness to the Year 2030

Build an evidenced-based range of scenarios that will assist defense and civilian policy makers of the Western Hemisphere in the development of national and regional strategies, including the 13

th

Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas held in Mexico City in 2018

.

Create capacity for and promote the uptake of forward thinking strategic research and planning

.Provide in-depth analysis and contingencies for defense and security sector stakeholders.2017 2030Slide19

“The

coming years offer an

opportunity for the United States to strike mutually beneficial partnerships

, ones that could cement the emergence of a group of increasingly prosperous democracies

...

the

underlying trend is one of progress

. Policymakers in Washington should be thinking of ways to build on Obama’s promising legacy by collaborating with partners as Latin America enters yet another new

era.” Michael Reid, Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 2015 issueSlide20

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