PDF-SENSE ABOUT SCIENCEMAKING SENSE OF UNCERTAINTYWhy uncertainty is part

The contributors met over 2012 to review what is being said life to identify the misconceptions in these discussions and share insights that help to dispel these and to draft and With thanks to ever. Jake Blanchard. Spring 2010. Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers. 1. Introduction. We’ve discussed single-variable probability distributions. This lets us represent uncertain inputs. But what of variables that depend on these inputs? How do we represent their uncertainty?. Nick Bloom (Stanford & NBER). Harvard, April 23. rd. and 30. th. Talk summarizes . a forthcoming JEP article (& a work-in-progress longer JEL). Talk summarizes . a forthcoming JEP article (& a work-in-progress longer JEL). Manipulating symbols. Last class. Typology of signs. Sign systems. Symbols. Tremendously important distinctions for informatics and computational sciences. Computation = symbol manipulation. Symbols can be manipulated without reference to content (syntactically. Panel Discussion. Lynn H. Pottenger, PhD, DABT. The Dow Chemical Company. Uncertainty Workshop Focus:. Focus on identification of sources & communication of uncertainty in a risk assessment. Not how to measure. Joseph B. Kadane. Carnegie Mellon University. kadane@stat.cmu.edu. “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future”. Niels. Bohr. Robert Storm Peterson. Yogi Berra. Samuel Goldwyn. Mark Twain. in Precipitation Data Records. Yudong Tian. Collaborators: Ling Tang, Bob Adler, George Huffman, . Xin Lin, Fang Yan, Viviana Maggioni and Matt Sapiano.  . University of Maryland & NASA/GSFC. http://sigma.umd.edu. Duncan Green (@fp2p). Oxfam. March 2014. In development, some systems are more or less linear . But many are not. So is Traditional Planning a good use of our time?. For. Allocating $. Building common goals and approaches. Inclined Manometer. http://. www.dwyer-inst.com. U-tube Manometer. Sensitivity. Inclined Manometer. http://. www.dwyer-inst.com. U-tube Manometer. Pitot. Static Probe. Measures fluid velocity . v. Based on Bernoulli’s law. . Avoidance. in 10 minutes. Geert Hofstede. January. 2015. Origin. of the term “. uncertainty. . avoidance. ”. One. of the . key. . concepts. in a “. behavioral. . theory. of the . firm. by Angela Campbell, Ph.D. and Andrew Cheng, Ph.D.. ICRAT. Angela Campbell, Ph.D.. June 21, 2016. The findings and conclusions in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the FAA. in Measurement. (IB text - Ch 11; AP text - section 1.4 pgs. 10-13 and A10-A13). All measurements have some degree of . uncertainty. . Therefore, we need to give some indication of the reliability of measurements and the uncertainties in the results calculated from these measurements. . Manipulating symbols. Last class. Typology of signs. Sign systems. Symbols. Tremendously important distinctions for informatics and computational sciences. Computation = symbol manipulation. Symbols can be manipulated without reference to content (syntactically. Accuracy vs. Precision. What is the difference?. Accuracy vs. Precision. Precision . accuracy. Exactness. Divisions on scale. Reproducibility. Uncertainty. Significant digits. Correctness. Calibration. Erzo F. P. Luttmer. Andrew A. Samwick. Dartmouth College and NBER. March 2017. Motivating Question. Future government policy is subject to uncertainty. How costly is this uncertainty?. When does policy uncertainty matter most?.