Presentation for OR49 Edinburgh John Morecroft London Business School 2 John Morecroft London Business School Introduction The longterm sustainability of fisheries depends on maintaining the appropriate balance of fish and ships ID: 1047831
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Fish and Ships The Dynamics of Fisherie..." is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
1. Fish and Ships The Dynamics of FisheriesPresentation for OR49 EdinburghJohn MorecroftLondon Business School
2. 2John Morecroft London Business SchoolIntroductionThe long-term sustainability of fisheries depends on maintaining the appropriate balance of fish and ships It sounds simple, but most of the world’s fisheries are in danger of collapse within 40 years. In this presentation I explore the paradox of fisheries management with a small system dynamics model of a harvested fishery inspired by the well-known Fish Banks gaming-simulator.
3. 3John Morecroft London Business SchoolDiagram of a Natural Fishery
4. 4John Morecroft London Business SchoolNet Regeneration as a Non-Linear Function of Fish Density
5. 5John Morecroft London Business SchoolFish: Dynamics of a Natural Fishery
6. 6John Morecroft London Business SchoolShips and Investment Policy
7. 7John Morecroft London Business SchoolPropensity for Growth and Catch per Ship
8. 8John Morecroft London Business SchoolFish and Ships: A Fisheries Model with Endogenous InvestmentBRRPopulationGrowth
9. 9John Morecroft London Business SchoolDynamics of a Harvested Fishery
10. 10John Morecroft London Business SchoolRegulatory PolicyThe model is extended to include regulatory policy. The fundamental purpose of regulatory policy is to ensure that scientific information about the state of the fishery limits fishing effort.
11. 11John Morecroft London Business SchoolPolicy Design in FisheriesCatch per shipNormal propensity for growthShips at seaShips in harbourScientific information about the state of the fisheryInvestment policyScrap rate of shipsDeployment policyFish densityFish stockOptimal fish density
12. 12John Morecroft London Business SchoolDynamics of a Regulated Fishery – Base Case
13. 13John Morecroft London Business SchoolThe Stabilizing Effect of a Higher Benchmark for Fish DensityBiological optimum fish density
14. 14John Morecroft London Business SchoolLower Exit Barriers – the Effect of Quicker Scrapping of Idle Ships
15. 15John Morecroft London Business SchoolConclusionSustainable fisheries ‘simply’ balance fish and shipsBut dynamic complexity, myopic investment and desire for growth ensure collapseEffective regulation forces the industry to heed scientific information about fish stocksRegulatory policy is likely to be controversial: early intervention best; exit incentives amplify boom and bustSustainable fisheries offer a powerful metaphor for global sustainability
16. 16John Morecroft London Business SchoolMore on Dynamics and Policy Designwww.wileyeurope.com/college/morecroft