2016 Presidential Primary Election: Alabama and Illinois - PowerPoint Presentation

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2016 Presidential Primary Election: Alabama and Illinois

Mason Russo, Melissa Burdier, John D’Amore, Robert MorganSlide2

Alabama- The Yellowhammer State

Electoral Conditions of Alabama

Predominantly rural state, population of 4.8 million (~2% of US Population)

Total registered voters:

2,965,911Rationale:Predominantly conservative electoral base allows us to analyze causes for these voting trends by way of the 2016 Presidential Primary ElectionLow-density, non-metropolitan areasSmall concentrations of Democratic pockets within the electoral map (“The Blue Belt”)Consideration of widespread, suburbanized transportation structures and effects on votingSlide3

Illinois- The Prairie State

Electoral Conditions of Illinois

Mix of rural and highly developed urban areas, including the United States’ second largest municipal area; total population of 12.88 million (~4% of US Population)

Total registered voters: 7,282,639

Rationale:Mix of large metropolitan areas contrasted with surrounding rural counties allows a better comparison of voting trends among these populationsAnalysis of voting trends around a major city (Chicago)Considerations of formalized public transit networks and infrastructure for a large populationSlide4

How Do Presidential Primaries Work?

Different strategies must be devised for different states, depending on their rules and political atmospheres, not just demographic factors

Successful campaigns operate based on a knowledge of the rules and the populations

Alabama

Republican Primary: A candidate must receive at least 20% of the statewide vote to receive any of the 29, statewide delegates at all, and are then rewarded proportionately. An additional 3 delegates per Congressional district is also awarded for any candidate who can top 20% within a single Congressional district. Rare, but if a candidate receives over 50% of the statewide vote, he or she receives ALL delegates. Democratic Primary: Any candidate must receive at least 15% of the statewide vote to receive delegates. There are 60 total, 35 from the seven Congressional districts, 11 are proportionally awarded, and 7 can vote for who they like. Half men, and half women. Knowing these factors, which demographic information is most important to target voters in Alabama? Slide5

How Do Presidential Primaries Work?

Illinois

Republican Primary

: Each of Illinois’ 18 Congressional Districts is awarded three Republican delegates, who are required to go to the candidate with the most votes. Additional, appointed delegates may vote for whomever they please.

Democratic Primary: The Democratic National Convention apportions delegates based off of the results of the previous presidential election cycle. More delegates are awarded to Congressional Districts that have a stronger Democratic turnout. Consequently, the numbers of delegates change every year. Half are women, and half are men. Additional, appointed delegates may vote for whomever they please. Knowing this information, what factors do we need to analyze to ensure successful campaigns in Illinois? Slide6

Objectives

Analyze political and demographic atmospheres to determine the best course of action for Democratic and Republican campaigns

Establish connection between voting turnout and proximity to public transportation

Connect voting trends based on age and population within the context of both states

Considerations of population factors on political trendsSocioeconomic statusAge, race, and genderPopulation densitiesUnemploymentSlide7

Data MethodsSlide8

Data MethodsSlide9

Hypotheses

Based on similar voting trends around the country, we can assume that:

Urban, population dense areas will vote

Democratic

Rural, population-sparse areas will be predisposed to vote RepublicanVoter turnout will be greater in counties/municipalities featuring a strong network of public transit systems (highways, bus systems, metros, etc.)More elderly populations will be more likely to vote Republican, while younger, ethnically diverse populations will vote DemocraticTowns with universities will be more likely to have a Democratic voter baseCombining these trends with political measures for primary elections in Alabama and Illinois, we can predict that Alabama’s general voter base will be primarily conservative, while Illinois will pull to the left. Slide10

Illinois Demographic Data

Total population is 12,880,580

Population Breakdown:

77.5% Caucasian population (approximately

9,918,046 people)14.7% Black alone (approximately 1,803,281 people)8.8% Other (Native American, Asian American, Hispanic, etc.)Age/Sex23.2% of the population is under 18Voting age population is approximately 9,918,580 peopleIs it wise to target the entirety of this population?

50.9% of the Illinois population is female

Approximately 22.5% (or 2,833,727 people) speak a language other than English in their home

Bilingual campaigns?Slide11

Illinois Population Density

Characterized by areas of mid/high density

Most dense county: Cook County, 5,495 people per square mile

Least dense county: Pope County, 12.1 people per square mile

For Democrats, looking to areas of dense urban agglomerations will be most important in a campaign.Need to make sure these large populations correspond with a high turnoutRepublicans: For all intents and purposes, all populations and Congressional Districts are equalEach district is the same in terms of delegates-- effect on campaign resources? Chicago, and where else?Slide12

Illinois Democratic Voting

Cross-referencing density with Democratic voting trends, we can see which Districts are critical in the Democratic vote

Springfield, Chicago, Aurora hold the largest Democratic populations, but do they hold the largest Democratic turnouts?

Democratic Results were split:

Hillary Clinton: 50.5%Bernie Sanders: 48.7%Could either campaign have done anything to attract more votes?Slide13

Illinois Republican Voting

Congressional Districts are equal within the Republican primaries, and can either receive equal attention, or divided attention

Chicago Metropolitan Area offers a wider gain for less coverage

Population density plays into the Republican favor

ArcGIS map this sideSlide14

University Voting Pattern- Illinois

346,488- Democratic voting within university areas (19%)

136,536- Republican voters within university areas (7.5%)

Total population by counties- 1,825,260Slide15

Illinois Highway System

General trend of intersecting roads equating to a higher voting population or turnout

There is at least one major intersection for each of the Congressional districts

Beneficial for Republicans

Democrats might not have this same advantage since districts are divided by Democratic turnout and not Congressional areasThese junctions mainly occur around cities, and consequently, incorporate public transit into their matricies.. Slide16

Chicago Metro

Rated the sixth best public transit system in the United States for major metropolitan areas (Redfin Transit Score, 2016)

Serves a ridership of 745,000 by train per day

Busses and other CTA services serve a ridership of approximately 1 million customers per day

Average time between public transit options is generally low, and facilitates the process of voting (CTA Customer Satisfaction Survey, http://www.transitchicago.com/assets/1/surveys/cssurvey2003.pdf)Slide17

Economic Analysis of Civic Engagement: The Strong EquationSlide18

Illinois Unemployment

Unemployment rates average -- 5.8%

Chicago unemployment 7%

General rule of thumb: unemployment mobilizes voters in areas of high-unemployment, but immobilizes them in areas of low-unemployment (Incantalupo, 2010)Slide19

Alabama Demographics

Total Population: 4,858,979 individuals

Population Breakdown:

Only 69.7% of total population is white only (3,386,708 people)

26.7% of population is black only (1,297,347 people)This is substantially larger than most other states, and gives rise to Alabama’s “Blue-belt”3.6% other races (Native American, Asian American, Hispanic, etc.)Age/Sex:20.4% of the population is under the age of 18 (971,795 people)Voting-age population is approximately 3,867,747 people51.1% of population is female27.8% of Alabama households speak a language other than English at homeGrowth rate of the state: 1.6% annually Slide20

Alabama Population Density

Generally sparse-- highest population density is within Jefferson County

662,047 individuals

595 people per square mile

Montgomery and Mobile are notably populated as wellWhat strategies can be taken by a campaign manager to cater to these large populations?Slide21

University Voting Patterns- Alabama

Baldwin, Mobile, Shelby, and Jefferson County

Individuals attending University tend to vote more Democratic. Correlation between County and voting party?

General trend of more concentrated Democratic turnout around university populations, but this might be due to larger urban localesSlide22

Alabama Republican Voting

Jefferson, Baldwin, Mobile, Shelby

Mean -12,502 voters

Percent vote pop - 18%

Trump is the clear winner, by wide margins in almost every countyIn this case, was the win able to be prevented at all?50% statewide was not achieved (43.9%)Slide23

Alabama Democratic Voting

Mean - 5766

Percent pop vote - 9%

Large capture of black and female voters within the Alabama Democratic primary

Hillary Clinton: 77.8%Bernie Sanders: 19.2%Larger urban concentrations correspond to larger pockets of Democratic voters“Blue belt”Slide24

Alabama Roads

Our civic engagement equation also applies to Alabama, and can be seen through the Republican/Democratic turnout maps

Major junctions of interstate and highways correspond with larger populations, and larger involvement in civic engagement

Considering the rules for primary elections in Alabama’s electorate, how should candidates go about campaigning for votes around major transit hubs? Slide25

Alabama Unemployment

Mean - 8.1% of people in Alabama are unemployed

Unlike Illinois, unemployed Alabamians are more likely to go out and vote with other unemployed populations

Higher unemployment overall correlates to higher turnout among jobless individuals

Once again, urban areas harbor more unemploymentBlue belt is absent! Unemployment does not equate to Democratic votesSlide26

References

http://wkrg.com/2016/02/28/how-delegates-are-awarded-in-alabama-presidential-primary/

http://thesouthern.com/news/local/how-does-the-illinois-primary-work/article_bd851d02-0fe0-5b8e-9764-8e8ea5c6ab5b.html

https://www.haverford.edu/sites/default/files/Department/Economics/incantalupo_turnout_2.19.2015.pdf

http://www.sustainablecitiescollective.com/greaterplaces/312316/explaining-civic-engagement-two-equations