Emily Ekins Polling Director at Reason Foundation reasoncompoll Polling Your Audience American Dream Coalition 2013 Emily Ekins Polling Director at Reason Foundation Why does polling matter ID: 355039
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Slide1
A Public Opinion Research Project Exploring Attitudes About Government
Emily Ekins | Polling Director at Reason Foundation
reason.com/pollSlide2
Polling Your Audience
American Dream Coalition 2013Emily Ekins | Polling Director at Reason Foundation Slide3
Why does polling matter?
Understanding your audienceWhat underlying assumptions are people making?Where are people coming from?Do demographics or partisanship predict support?Using survey questions to understand how the public makes trade-offsTelling a narrativeDemonstrating to lawmakers what the public thinks about your policy proposalsSlide4
Polling Basics
Avoid biased, leading languageRepresent opponents’ views as accurately as possible to realistically measure public opinionUse a reputable pollster, use cell phones in the sampleAsk baseline questions to calibrate with other pollsIf message testing, ask after baseline questions to avoid biasBe transparent with data and resultsSlide5
Which Method to Use?
Survey TypeProsCons
Ideal for
Live Telephone
Interviewing
Landline & Cell
Phones
Most accurate
, reaches young people, Latinos, and other harder to reach populations
Expensive
Measuring
national public opinion, impacting the media debate
Robo
Calls
Landline Only
* Not Allowed to Call Cell Phones
Less Expensive
Less
accurate on hard to reach populations, overestimates Republican respondents
Measuring older, conservative audiences, needs
to be supplemented (i.e. Internet survey) to represent national population
Internet-
Based Surveys
Probability
Sample (Matching Method)
Less Expensive
Prone to bias without the right methodology
Measuring
national public opinion*,
Surveys of young peopleSlide6
Wisconsin RecallSlide7
In order to reduce state budget deficits do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining…
for public employee unions?…rights for public employee unionsOppose52%
Favor43%Slide8
In order to reduce state budget deficits do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining…
for public employee unions?rights for public employee unionsOppose52%
Favor
43%Slide9
In order to reduce state budget deficits do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining…
for public employee unions?rights for public employee unionsOppose52%
Favor
43%Slide10
State level issues can have a national impactSlide11
TransportationSlide12
Most Americans are dissatisfied with the overall
quality and condition of the transportation systemWould you say the overall quality and condition of your area’s transportation system is excellent, good, fair, or poor? 51% are UnsatisfiedSlide13
Half of Americans say traffic congestion is getting worse and expect it to worsen
Compared to five years ago, would you say traffic congestion has gotten…Looking ahead, in the next five years do you think traffic congestion will get…Slide14
About a third of Americans say traffic congestion has gotten worse in recent years and expect it to get worse
Next 5 Years5 Years AgoWorseSameBetterWorse36%8%4%
Same14%
2%
4%
Better
2%
18%
5%Slide15
About a third of Americans say traffic congestion has gotten worse in recent years and expect it to get worse
Next 5 Years5 Years AgoWorseSameBetterWorse36%8%4%
Same14%
2%
4%
Better
2%
18%
5%
More female
45-64
College Graduate
NonpartisanSlide16
Americans prioritize funding for highways and roads over mass transit
“We can’t end our traffic congestion problems by expanding current roads and building new ones. Instead we need better mass transit systems, so more funding should go to transit - even if that means roads and highways don’t get the money they need for repairs or expansion.” OR 2. “Most people, businesses and our economy rely on roads and highways. So roads and highways should get the level of funding they need - even if that means we are unable to offer more mass transit options.”DemocraticLiberalPost-GraduatesNonwhiteOften uses public transitSlide17
Majorities of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans prioritize
highway funding Slide18
Preference for Mass Transit Declines With AgeSlide19
Although Most Americans Are Dissatisfied With the Transportation System & Expect Traffic Congestion to Worsen, 77% Oppose Raising Gas Tax
The federal gas tax is currently 18.4 cents a gallon, and nearly all the revenue is used to pay for highways and transit. “Some say our roads and transit systems are crumbling and need more funding”. “Others say the government wastes a lot of the gas tax money it already receives”. Do you favor or oppose raising the federal gas tax? Slide20
Although Most Americans Are Dissatisfied With the Transportation System & Expect Traffic Congestion to Worsen, 77% Oppose Raising Gas Tax
The federal gas tax is currently 18.4 cents a gallon, and nearly all the revenue is used to pay for highways and transit. “Some say our roads and transit systems are crumbling and need more funding”. “Others say the government wastes a lot of the gas tax money it already receives”. Do you favor or oppose raising the federal gas tax? Slide21
Americans expect government will waste their transportation tax dollars
Do you think the government generally spends transportation funding ineffectively or effectively? Slide22
Americans prefer using toll roads to pay for highway and road expansion, partisans agree
TollsTaxesDemocrats58%32%Independents52%32%Republicans61%24%If your region expanded its highway system, would you prefer to pay for the new lanes or new highways by “raising taxes” or by “paying tolls when you drive on them”? Slide23
Most Americans say they would pay to use toll roads if it would save them time…
If your area built a new toll lane or road and using it would save you a significant amount of time, would you pay a toll to use it?Slide24
Americans who
live near toll roads are more favorable to using toll roads to fund highway expansion
Toll Road in Area
No Toll Roads in Area
Tax Increase
23%
32%
Toll Roads
68%
52%
Don’t Know
9%
16%Slide25
Americans who
live near toll roads are more favorable to using toll roads to fund highway expansion
Toll Road in Area
No Toll Roads in Area
Tax Increase
23%
32%
Toll Roads
68%
52%
Don’t Know
9%
16%
Slightly higher income and education
Slightly lower income and educationSlide26
Preference for Toll Roads Increases with Income, But Majorities of All Income Groups FavorSlide27
Preference for Toll Roads Increases with
Education, But Majorities of All Education Groups FavorSlide28
How much would you pay to use toll roads?Slide29
How much would you pay to use toll roads?
MedianMeanNot Near Tolls$.50$1.15Near Tolls$1.00$1.61National Average$.75$1.34Slide30
Most Americans favor opening up HOV lanes to drivers who pay a toll
To reduce traffic congestion, some regions are allowing individual drivers to pay a toll to use HOV lanes that have previously been reserved for cars with 2 or more people in them. Some say “this offers everyone a faster trip and brings in needed revenue.” Others say “it is unfair to low-income drivers”. Do you support or oppose allowing individual drivers use HOV lanes if they pay a toll? Is that strongly or somewhat? Slide31
Majorities of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans favor opening up HOV lanes to drivers who pay a tollSlide32
Most Americans oppose adjustable rate tolls based on traffic congestion. Further research should find out why.
Another plan being used to reduce congestion during rush hours is charging adjustable tolls on new toll roads. The tolls are higher at times when traffic is heavy and lower when traffic is light. Is that something you support or oppose? Is that strongly or somewhat? Slide33
Preference for adjustable rate
toll roads less related to income, all income groups oppose Slide34
Preference for adjustable rate toll roads less related to
education, all education groups oppose Slide35
56% of Americans support public-private partnerships to build and expand highways, airports, and other infrastructure projects
Many governments are partnering with private companies to build and expand highways, airports and other infrastructure projects that government might not be able to afford otherwise. Do you favor or oppose these public-private partnerships? Slide36
Support for private-public partnerships increases with incomeSlide37
Support for private-public partnerships increases with
educationSlide38
Majorities of Democrats and Republicans favor private-public partnerships