I nterviews conducted between August 1930 2015 Screening qualifications included West Virginia residency current voter registration and claimed likelihood to vote in the 2016 general election ID: 646857
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Methodology
Sample of 402Interviews conducted between August 19-30, 2015 Screening qualifications included West Virginia residency, current voter registration, and claimed likelihood to vote in the 2016 general election
Multiple data collection methods have been used to conduct the Poll including random digit dialing (RDD), landline phone, cell phone, and opt-in Internet panelSlide3
Defining the Political Composition of Voters
Steadfast Conservatives
19%
34%
17%
11%
L
ikely
V
oters
Business Conservatives
Young Outsiders
11%
15%
Socially conservative
Conservative views on government, not social issues
Pro-Wall Street, pro-immigrantSlide4
L
ikely
V
oters
11%
11%
Next Generation Left
Faith and Family Left
12%
3%
9
%
12%
Hard-Pressed Skeptics
21%
14%
Solid Liberals
Financially stressed and pessimistic
Young, liberal on social issues, less so on social safety net
Racially diverse and religious
Liberal across-the-boardSlide5
West Virginia Skews Significantly More Conservative Than the Nation as a Whole
In West Virginia
34%
11%
15%
12%
11%
3%
1
4%
19%
17%
9
%
11%
21%
12%
12%
1
1%
The U.S as a whole
Solid
Liberal
Faith &
Family
Left
Next Gen
Left
Hard Pressed
Skeptics
Young
Outsiders
Business
Conservative
Steadfast
ConservativeSlide6
U.S. Heading in the Wrong Direction
“All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?”
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Mixed (vol.)
Unsure
16%
76%
N/A
8%
28%
65%
4%
3%Slide7
Nearly half of West Virginians Prefer a Republican as the Next President
Republican
Democrat
Not Sure
?Slide8
Approve
Disapprove
Nearly Three-Fourths of West Virginians Disapprove
Not Sure
2014
12%
2013
7%
2015
5
%Slide9
The Potential for Republican Control of the West Virginia Legislature was Identified in August of
2014
41%
39%
20%
2014
Republican
Democrat
Not Sure
35%
42%
23%
2013
Republican
Democrat
Not SureSlide10
The Trend Toward Republican Control of the West Virginia Legislature May Continue
Republicans
should control
the next WV Legislature
Democrats
should control
the next WV
Legislature
Not Sure
?Slide11
Approve
Disapprove
Approval Rating Remains Below 50%
Not Sure
2014
32%
2013
25%
2015
21%Slide12
Approve
Disapprove
2014
24%
2013
21%
2015
16%
Not Sure
Job Approval Continues to Improve, but Remains Below 50%Slide13
Approve
Disapprove
T
wice as Many Approve of Performance vs. Disapprove
Not Sure
2014
25%
2013
26%
2015
21%Slide14
West Virginia Viewed as Heading in the Wrong Direction
“All in all, do you think things in West Virginia are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?”
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Unsure
State
28%
56%
16%
Country
16%
76%
8%Slide15
In a Generic Ballot, West Virginians are Split on Which Party Should Control the Governor’s Office
Republican
Democrat
Not Sure
?Slide16
Jim Justice is the Early Pick for the Democratic Nomination for GovernorSlide17
Justice is also the Early Choice for Governor Over Republican Bill ColeSlide18
However, Cole W
ould Beat Jeff Kessler if the Election Were Held T
odaySlide19
Thank youSlide20
Methodology Statement
Results of this edition of The West Virginia Poll® are based on interviews conducted between August 19-30, 2015 with a sample of 400 West Virginia residents age 18 and over. Multiple data collection methods have been used to conduct the Poll including random digit dialing (RDD), landline phone, cell phone, and opt-in Internet panel. Each data collection method has strengths and weakness.
Respondents were screened and qualified to participate in the Poll. Screening qualifications included West Virginia residency, current voter registration, and claimed likelihood to vote in the 2016 general election. While it is not appropriate to apply a margin of error to the interviews completed online, statistical tests of significance were used between segments at the 95% confidence level. This method yields an estimated statistical error for each question asked and an overall statistical error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.
The purpose of the West Virginia Poll is to provide a snapshot of opinion and timely voter views in the Mountain State. The media sponsor of The West Virginia Poll is MetroNews, the statewide radio network owned by West Virginia Radio Corporation.
REPASS is responsible for questionnaire design, the respondent screening and selection process, data tabulation, statistical analysis, and reporting of results. Interviewing is conducted by the firm’s data collection partner,
McMillion
Research Services. All data collection is conducted from the firm’s Charleston, West Virginia data collection facilities for telephone, Internet, and mobile surveys. Both the REPASS and
McMillion
firms are members of the Council of American Survey Research Organizations (CASRO).
Data as reported has been statistically weighted based by estimates of voter participation by age, party affiliation, and gender. The West Virginia Poll is a non-partisan survey of public opinion owned and conducted by Repass. The West Virginia Poll has been conducted periodically since January 21, 1980 and reported by sponsored by statewide media organization. The name The West Virginia Poll
is a registered trademark of REPASS, all rights reserved.