PREVIEWING THE 2018 ELECTION - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

PREVIEWING THE 2018 ELECTION

A Blue Wave, a Red Tide or Something In Between

TEXAS ELECTION SOURCE

Jeff Blaylock, Publisher

Texas Association of Realtors

Government Affairs Forum

September 8, 2018Slide2

2

Veteran campaign manager, press secretary and policy advisor for numerous political campaigns in Texas and other states.

Worked in the White House’s Office of Management and Budget during the 1990s.

Joined Public Strategies (now Hill+Knowlton

Strategies) in 2005 and provided public affairs and legislative strategic guidance to the firm’s clients until 2012.

Currently providing public affairs, legislative and regulatory strategy and political intelligence consulting services to private sector clients.

Began publishing Texas Election Source in 2014 after providing my consulting clients with accurate and thorough election and political analyses for more than a decade.

Jeff BlaylockPublisherServed six years as a chief committee clerk for Rep. Steve Wolens (D-Dallas) and Rep. Burt

Solomons (R-Carrollton).

Began compiling election results and demographic data at the precinct level in 2006 to identify voter trends.

Accurately predicted the significant change in the composition of the House in 2010 and more than 98% of general elections since.

Developed the most comprehensive data set on straight-ticket voting in the state and a robust model indicating primary challenge risk.Slide3

A Red State’s Generational Journey

Last time a Democratic presidential candidate won Texas

1976

Last time a Democrat was elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas

1988

Last time a Democrat was elected

Governor of Texas

1990

Last time a Democratic candidate won a statewide race in Texas

1994

Last time a Democrat was elected

Speaker of the House

2001

Last time a Democratic statewide candidate received >45% of the vote

2008

3Slide4

4Revisiting the 2014 General Election

Battleground Bust

Despite significant resources and effort, Battleground Texas failed to generate much Democrat success.

Stronghold Struggles

Wendy Davis won the Hispanic/Latino vote by just 11% and was tied with Abbott among voters under 45, according to exit polls.

Most Texans Stayed Home

Despite population growth and increased voter registrations, about 260K fewer people voted than in 2010.

Speed Limit SignsGreg Abbott won 125 counties with at least 80% of the vote.Slide5

Revisiting the 2014 General Election

Abbott Defeated Davis by 20 Points

Greg Abbott (R)

2,797

Straight Republican

Full-ballot Votes1,723

1,074Wendy Davis (D)1,836 Straight Democratic Full-ballot Votes1,076760Other Candidates86 Straight Libertarian Straight Green Full-ballot Votes

227

57

Total Votes Cast

4,718

In Thousands

5Slide6

Defining a “Wave Election”

Most Political Experts Agree on Some Basic Characteristics

Win Most Close Races

One political party wins the vast majority of swing/open seats or close races than occurs during a “normal” election. Many other races are closer than “normal.”

Upswing in Participation

One or more groups of voters with closely aligned political views vote at disproportionately higher rates than they would in a “normal” election.

Win More Than Needed

A political party wins significantly more seats than it needs to take power from the other party, or a party significantly cements its grip on power.

More Incumbents Lose

A significantly larger number of one party’s incumbents, including some in “safe” seats, lose re-election bids than occurs during a “normal” election.

6Slide7

2010: The Last Wave Election in TexasMotivated Republicans, Democratic No-shows Made Texas Redder Than Ever

7

Unpopular President

Heading into the mid-term election, half of Texas voters strongly disapproved of President Barack Obama (D). Republicans ran against Washington.

Weak Statewide Field

Former Houston Mayor Bill White, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, collected more than 90% of all funds raised by statewide slate.

Too Much Ground to Defend

Democrats won 14 Texas House seats in 2008 with less than 55% of the vote and 9 more with less than 60% of the vote.

(Another) Statewide Sweep

White lost by 12 points to Rick Perry, but the rest of the Democratic statewide field averaged 35% of the vote, losing by an average of 26 points.

Record Republican Majority

Republicans flipped 22 House seats on Election Night, growing their majority from 77-73 to 99-51, followed closely by two party switchers.

Swing Seats Swung

Republicans won 20 of those 23 seats, including all but one previously won with less than 55% of the vote. The exception kept her seat by just 12 votes.Slide8

Partisan Breakdown of Voters’ Attitudes Toward Washington, Texas8

Net

National

Right Track/Wrong Track Score

Net State

Right Track/Wrong Track ScoreSource: Univ. of Texas Politics Project/Texas Tribune Polls, 2009-2018Slide9

Most Groups of Texas Voters View Trump More Favorably Than Obama

President’s “Strong” Approval/Disapproval Ratings Heading Into This Election Are Better Than His Predecessor's

Group

Obama ’10

Obama ’14Trump ’18

Republicans1/861/85

54/4Independents14/5913/5129/38

Democrats44/741/42/76Suburban Voters19/5216/5131/38Men19/5816/5236/34Women19/4418/4423/42Aged 18-2916/3115/3422/43Aged 65+

14/7313/6645/35

No HS/HS Grad

13/61

12/48

30/33

Church Weekly

18/60

12/61

36/28

OVERALL

19/50

17/48

29/38

Improvement in Trump’s strong approval rating within his party’s voters versus Obama’s strong approval rating among Democrats in 2010.

+10

Improvement in Trump’s strong disapproval rating among the other party’s voters versus Obama’s strong disapproval rating among Republicans in 2010.

Improvement in Trump’s strong disapproval rating among voters aged 65 and older versus Obama’s strong disapproval rating among them in 2010.

+10

+38

Source: Univ. of Texas Politics Project Polls for May 2010, June 2014 and June 2018

9Slide10

High-level Look at the State of Play Entering the Home Stretch

As Usual, Not Many Seats Are Potentially Flippable, But Almost All That Are Belong to Republicans

Unopposed

Strong

Likely

Leaning

Toss Up

Not Up in 2018

Texas House of Representatives

Texas Senate

Congressional Delegation

10Slide11

Closer Look at the Seats Potentially in Play

A Democrat Won Districts Geographically Overlapping Many of These Republican-held Districts in 2008

HD47

HD52

HD102

HD108

HD112

HD113

HD138

SEN

CD22

CD31

CD32

SD10

HD105

HD114

HD115

HD134

HD136

SD19

CD7

CD23

HD107

HD144

Texas House of

Representatives

Texas Senate

U.S. Congress

Rodney

Anderson

Paul

Workman

Cynthia

Flores*

Linda

Koop

Morgan

Meyer

SD16

Angie

Button

Jonathan

Boos*

Dwayne

Bohac

Lisa Luby

Ryan*

Matt

Rinaldi

Sarah

Davis

Tony

Dale

Victoria

Neave

Mary Ann

Perez

Konni

Burton

Don

Huffines

SPECIAL

ELECTION

Ted

Cruz

Pete

Olson

John

Carter

Pete

Sessions

John

Culberson

Will

Hurd

Lean Republican

Toss Up

Leans Democrat

* Nominee of party currently holding seat

11Slide12

U.S. Sen. Ted CruzNBC News/Marist Univ. (August)

Cruz 49, O’Rourke 45Public Policy Polling (August)Cruz 46, O’Rourke 42Quinnipiac Univ. (July)Cruz 49, O’Rourke 43

U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke

Texas Lyceum (July)Cruz 41, O’Rourke 39UT/Texas Tribune (June)

Cruz 41, O’Rourke 36Mike Baselice (May)Cruz 48, O’Rourke 36

Neal DikemanU.S. Senate Race Draws National Attention

Polls, Campaign Activities Suggest Race Is Much Closer Than a Typical Texas Statewide Race12

CNNDaily KosNathan Gonzales (Inside Elections)

Roll CallStuart Rothenberg

Likely Republican

Charlie Cook

Fox News

Politico

Larry Sabato

Lean Republican

Real Clear Politics

Toss Up

Most polls have shown Cruz to be under 50%, while O’Rourke battles low name identification.

TEXAS ELECTION SOURCESlide13

Republicans Have Won Every U.S. Senate Race Since 1990

O’Rourke on Track to Become First Democrat to Out-raise Republican Opponent Since 1988

Democratic Candidate

Year

Amount Raised

Beto O’Rourke

2018$23,480,462*

David Alameel2014$10,274,862Paul Sadler2012$683,957Rick Noriega2008$4,166,286Barbara Ann Radnofsky2006$1,490,632Ron Kirk2002$9,517,216Gene Kelly2000

$4,654Victor Morales

1996

$999,290

Richard Fisher

1994

$5,891,859

Bob Krueger

1993**

$4,569,550

Hugh Parmer

1990

$1,680,099

Lloyd Bentsen

1988

$8,280,013

Republican Candidate

Amount Raised

Ted Cruz

$14,248,524*

John Cornyn

$11,405,135

Ted Cruz

$15,098,279

John Cornyn

$13,727,423

Kay Bailey Hutchison

$6,378,589

John Cornyn

$9,798,366

Kay Bailey Hutchison

$3,410,444

Phil Gramm

$3,802,167

Kay Bailey Hutchison

$6,040,930

Kay Bailey Hutchison

$7,890,889

Phil Gramm

$11,626,377

Beau Boulter

$1,347,834

Democratic Candidate Vote Percentage

Source: Federal Election Commission data for relevant two-year election cycles

* Through June 30 ** Special runoff election

13Slide14

Ted Cruz Is Not as Popular as Greg Abbott in Voters’ Eyes

Recent Polls Indicate 5%-10% of Voters View Abbott Positively and Cruz Negatively

Poll

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R)

Gov. Greg Abbott (R)

Overall

Independents

RepublicansOverallIndependentsRepublicansMarist Univ. (August)49/4145/4287/1058/3158/2991/4Quinnipiac Univ. (July)50/4244/4785/1051/3250/3384/3UT/Texas Tribune (June)Strong39/4121/3337/4121/3471/1040/347/36

27/2445/4026/2579/7

52/1

Poll

Overall

Independents

Republicans

Cruz

Abbott

Diff.

Cruz

Abbott

Diff.

Cruz

Abbott

Diff.

Marist (August)

+8

+27

-19

+3

+29

-26

+77

+87

-10

Quinnipiac (July)

+8

+19

-11

-3

+17

-20

+75

+81

-6

UT/TT (June)

Strong

-2

-12

+11

+3

-13

-15

-4

-13

+5+1-9-14

+61+37+72+51-11

-14

Sources: Marist Univ., Quinnipiac Univ., Univ. of Texas Politics Project

14Slide15

“The Year of the (Democratic) Woman”?

Record Numbers of Women Sought Office, Matching a National Trend, and at Least 95 Are on the November Ballot

Democratic

Women

vs.

Republican

Men

65

Republican

Women

vs.

Democratic

Men

9

Democratic

Women

vs.

Republican

Women

11

2016

29

10

7

2014

21

7

6

2012

26

13

3

2018

More than 180 women ran for statewide, legislative and congressional offices in Texas this year, nearly double the number from 2014.

60% of all Democratic primary early voters were women, compared to 50% of Republican voters.

A woman won outright or advanced to a runoff in 92% of Democratic primary races with no incumbent and at least one man and one woman on the ballot.

30% of all state and federal general election seats feature a Democratic woman vs. a Republican man.

Texas has never elected a Latina to Congress. The state is poised to send at least two, and a third Latina candidate is in a ”toss up” race.

15Slide16

Polls Indicate Strong Gender Gap

Men and Women’s Views on Politics Sharply Different, Much Farther Apart Than Four Years Ago

2018 Poll

Question

Men

WomenSwingNBC/Marist

Senate RaceCruz +17O’Rourke +1027AugustCongressional Control

Republican +19Democrat +625QuinnipiacSenate RaceCruz +20O’Rourke +626JulyTrump ApprovalApprove +13Disapprove +1730Texas LyceumSenate RaceCruz +11O’Rourke +516JulyU.S. Right/Wrong TrackWrong +3Wrong +1417

UT/Texas TribuneSenate RaceCruz +16O’Rourke +5

21

June

Generic Ballot

Republican +12

Democrat +6

18

2014 Poll

Question

Men

Women

Swing

UT/Texas Tribune

Governor’s Race

Abbott +14

Abbott +10

4

June 2014

Obama Approval

Disapprove +23

Disapprove +15

8

16Slide17

Availability of Straight-party Voting Option for 2018 General Election17

Single-punch Voting Offered

Texas is one of 10* states that offer voters the option of voting for every candidate of one party with a single mark, punch or other action.

Single-punch Voting Repealed

12 states have repealed their single-punch option since 1994, including New Mexico (2012). The New Mexico Secretary of State is attempting to revive it.

Repeal Being Litigated

Michigan repealed its single-punch option in 2015, but a federal court struck it down. The 6

th Ct. of Appeals overruled the lower court this week, so voters likely will not have a single-punch option in 2018.

*

In New Mexico, some counties are refusing to use a single-punch option, and

a lawsuit has been filed by multiple parties to prevent its use statewide.

Texas Legislature Repealed Its Single-punch, Straight-party Option, But It Remains in Use This Year

*Slide18

Estimated Proportion of Straight-party Voters Since 1986Texans Vote Straight-party at a Higher Rate Than Any Other State With a Single-punch Option

18Slide19

Estimated Number of Straight-party Voters Since 1986Voters Cast More Than 5.5 Million Straight-party Votes in 2016, Exceeding Number of Primary Voters by 1.35 Million

19

Thousands of VotesSlide20

Turnout Traditionally Drops Sharply for a Mid-term Election

For the Last Three Gubernatorial Elections, Two Out of Every Five Presidential Election Voters Did Not Cast Ballots

Thousands of Votes

-28%

-29%

-29%

-33%

-41%

-38%

-41%

20Slide21

Texas Ranks Near the Bottom Among States’ General Election Turnout

21

2002

34%

54%

2004

31%

2006

54%

2008

32%

2010

50%

2012

2014

28%

52%

2016

46th

48th

50th

50th

48th

47th

47th

48th

Source: Univ. of Florida’s United States Election Project

Based on Votes Cast for President or Governor as a Percent of Estimated Voting-eligible PopulationSlide22

Revisiting the 2014 General Election, Non-voter Edition

Nearly 12 Million Voting-eligible Texans Did Not Participate

Greg Abbott (R)

2,797

Straight Republican

Full-ballot Votes1,723

1,074Wendy Davis (D)1,836 Straight Democratic Full-ballot Votes1,076760Other Candidates86Total Votes Cast4,718

Registered, But Didn’t Vote

9,298

Eligible, But Didn’t Register

2,650

Total Non-voters

11,948

In Thousands

22Slide23

The State’s Top Voting Trend Is Not Voting

Non-voters have (vastly) outnumbered voters in recent gubernatorial election years

Thousands of Votes

Sources: Univ. of Florida’s U.S. Election Project, Census Bureau, Texas Secretary of State

?

An estimated 2.8 million Texans did not register to vote, despite being eligible, before this year’s primary election.

A record 12.6 million registered voters did not vote in this year’s primary election.

Texas ranks 40

th

out of 47 states that

have held primaries so far this year

Nearly

15.5 million

more Texans could have participated in this year’s primary elections.

Since 2002, the number of Texans eligible to vote has risen 39%, but the number of registered voters has risen just

23%

.

23Slide24

Hispanic/Latino Participation Lags Far Behind Other Groups in Dallas Co.

Calculated Based on 2014 Results in Precincts Where One Ethnic Group Comprised at Least 75% of the Voting-age Population

24

Voted for Governor

Registered but did not vote

Not registered to vote

>75% Anglo

>75% African-American

>75% Hispanic/LatinoSlide25

What Would It Take for Texas to Have a Wave Election?

While There Is No Standard Definition, Most Political Experts Agree on Some of Their Characteristics

Beto Has Coattails

As the true top of the ticket, O’Rourke translates his organization and outreach efforts into much greater than normal turnout, especially among young voters.

Upswing in Participation

Overall turnout is higher than in a ”normal” gubernatorial election, and that increase is driven by voters looking to send a message to Washington.

Republican Ennui

A combination of Trump fatigue, lack of urgency, overconfidence and plain old disinterest keeps more Republican voters at home than in a “normal” election.

Women Make It Their Year

The gender gap seen in polls is matched by an enthusiasm gap as women are more inspired to vote than men, and they vote for women and Democrats.

25Slide26

2614 Years Separated a 254-county Democratic Sweep from a Republican Governor

1964

1978

John

Connally

74%Jack Crichton26%

John Hill49%Bill Clements50%

Significant Demographic, Economic and Cultural Changes Could Dramatically Alter the Map in the Coming YearsSlide27

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