Fiveyear research project in Japan on extreme weather variations in the stratospheretroposphere coupled system 1 17 GrantsinAid for Scientific Research S Extreme Weather ID: 813199
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Slide1
Shigeo
Yoden (Kyoto Univ., yoden@kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp)
Five-year research project in Japanonextreme weather variationsin the stratosphere-tropospherecoupled system
1
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Slide2Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S)Extreme Weather Variationsin
the Stratosphere –TroposphereCoupled System:Past, Present and Future FY2012 - 2016PI :
Shigeo
Yoden (Kyoto Univ.)Co-I : K. Ishioka, M. Taguchi, R. Mizuta, H. Mukougawa, T. Enomoto, A. Kitoh, K. Kodera, Y. Naito and T. HirookaPostdoctoral Fellow: E. Nishimoto and S. Noda
2
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Slide3Time evolution of NP
Temp. [K] at 10 hPa
70 KMukougawa et al. (2012)5 days
2009
BackgroundStratospheric sudden warming (SSW)a typical extreme weather event in the S-T coupled system highly nonlinear global- scale dynamical phenomenon prediction is a quite difficult problemTime evolution of the polar vortex during an SSW event (every 3 days)CCNP3
/17
Slide4Vertical couplings between S and T, and between S and M
downward propagation of a signal of extreme weather event in the stratosphere
4
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Just after the SSW in Feb. 2007, an extreme cold event took place over North America significant influence down to the surface weather and climateupward influence of an SSW to the mesosphere is another interesting thing
weaker mean zonal wind brings more nonlinear interactions among multi-scale wavesTides, PWs, and GWs
Mukougawa
et al. (2012)
(e.g., Baldwin and Dunkerton
2001
)
Hirooka
#1312
Slide5220 240
260
280 [K]JJ
A
SONDJFMAMPDF of monthly mean Temp. at NPMCM experiment for 15,200 years Nishizawa and Yoden (2005)2000s1990s
Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variation of NP Temp.
Noguchi and
Yoden
(2012)
J A S O N D J F M A M J
Multiple time-scale variations of S-T coupled system
large
day-to-day, intra-seasonal, and inter-annual variations
in the Northern Hemisphere
winter
highly skewed (or bimodal) PDF
in monthly mean
Temp.
5
/17
Slide6We aim
to understand the dynamical linkage among these internal and external variations of the T-S-M coupled system comprehensivelyWe aim to contribute for improving our ability of prediction of extreme weather eventsWe investigate the feature of these internal and external variations in the current climate by analysing
the observational and forecast datasetsWe make validations of climate models by paleoclimate simulations and sensitivity studiesBased on these studies for the past and present climates, we assess the impact on the future climate of the S-T coupled system with projection uncertainty6/17
Purpose and
strategy
Slide7(1) Data analyses
M. Taguchi(Aichi U.E.), S. Yoden(KU), Y. Naito(KU), E. Nishimoto(KU), W. Randel(NCAR, US), K. Rosenlof(NOAA, US), M. Baldwin(U. Exter, UK)
phenomenological description of extreme weather events(2) Mechanistic circulation model and statistical studiesK. Ishioka(KU), S. Yoden(KU), S. Noda(MRI), P. Haynes(U. Cambridge, UK), A. Gettelman(NCAR, US), M. Ghil（ENS, F.)understanding their dynamical processes with a hierarchy of numerical
models and construction of a new statistical law
(3) GCM and NWP model studiesH. Mukougawa(KU), T. Enomoto(KU), T. Hirooka(Kyushu U.), K. Kodera (Nagoya U.), T. Palmer(U. Oxford, UK), P. Hitchcock(U. Cambridge, UK)ensemble NWP experiments with long enough datasets(4) MRI climate model studiesR. Mizuta(MRI), A. Kitoh(MRI), K. Yoshida(MRI), S. Noda(MRI), T. Shepherd (U. Reading, UK), Son(SNU, Korea)paleoclimate simulations: LGM(21 ka), MH (6 ka) and LM(850–1850)7/17
Research groups
Slide8OBSERVATIONS
DYNAMICAL MODELS
COMPLEX MEDIUM SIMPLEEVOLVINGCONCEPTIAL MODELS
A schematic illustration of the optimum situation for meteorological research
THEORIESNUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS8/17hierarchy of numerical models to reduce the gap between a complex real world and an idealized theoryHoskins (1983; Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.)Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and the use of modelsHeld (2005; BAMS )The gap between simulation and understanding in climate modeling
Slide9Time lines
研究
班と諸計画20122013
2014
20152016 （１）データ解析班 （２）力学モデル・統計班 （３）大気大循環・ 数値天気予報モデル班 （４）気候モデル班
主な設備備品購入計画
国際研究集会の計画
計算サーバー、データ記憶装置の導入
データ記憶装置の補強
AOGS/WPGM
ｊ
oint
年次総会
IAMAS/ICMA
国際研究集会
IAMAS/ICMA
国際研究集会
International workshop
データ記憶装置の補強
データ記憶装置の補強
計算サーバー、データ記憶装置の補強
研究打合せ・成果交流のための定期的全体会議
データベース
構築
実験設定・感度
解析コード開発
モデル・データ同化
システム移植
縄文期
気候再現実験
大標本統計
解析、感度解析
最終氷期
気候再現実験
擬似予報実験
データ解析
新統計則の構築・応用
長時間積分データ感度解析、増幅メカニズム探究
過去気候
データ解析
再解析
データ解析
継続
世界古気候
再現実験
データ解析継続
数値天気予報保管データ
詳細解析継続
基盤（Ａ）
現在（・未来）
基盤（Ｓ）
過去気候研究
international workshop and symposium to promote
interactions among generations and regions
including Asian countries
International symposium
過去・未来マルチモデル
実験データ解析
アンサンブル
擬似予報実験
過去千年
気候再現実験
9
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Slide10Japan-US (JSPS-NSF) Seminar on
Stratosphere-Troposphere CouplingMarch 13 - 17, 2001Kyoto City Hall for International relationship, Kyoto, Japanconvened by Shigeo
Yoden and William Randel
10
/17
Slide11SPARC Workshop on
Stratospheric Sudden Warming and its Role in Weather and Climate VariationsFebruary 22 (Wed) - 24(Fri), 2012Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japanconvened by Mark Baldwin, Ted Shepherd and Shigeo Yoden
Participants from abroad 46 (14 countries), local 57in total 105 participants, Ustream.tv viewer 428
11
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Slide12WCRP Regional Workshop
onStratosphere-Troposphere Processes and their Role in ClimateApril 1 (Mon) - 3(Wed), 2013Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japanconvened by Masato Shiotani and Shigeo
YodenParticipants from abroad 24 (10 countries), local 56in total 80 participants, Ustream.tv viewer 69
12
/17
Slide13RIMS International Conference on
Theoretical Aspects of Variability and Predictabilityin Weather and Climate SystemsOctober 22 (Tue) - 25 (Fri),
2013at Masukawa Hall, Kyoto University, Japankeynote speakers: Michael Ghil (ENS/ UCLA, France) Tim Palmer (U. Oxford, UK)an international activity under “Mathematics of Planet Earth year 2013”
(
c) Dale Durran 2005Kurama fire festival (22nd in October, every year)13/17
Slide14Paleoclimate
simulations and sensitivity studiesLast Glacier Max.(21 ka), Mid-Holocene(6 ka), and so onInterdisciplinary collaborations with geological people14/ 17
Uniqueness: “wide perspective”
Jan
May SepFeb Jun OctMar Jul NovApr Aug DecDifference of surface T: 6ka – 0kasimulated by MRI CSMKitoh
(2012)
Geological proxy data from limestone (
stalagmite
)
Watanabe et al. (2010)
Slide1515
/17
Initial time
Initial time
observationContribution to improve numerical weather predictionsexperimental NWPs with operational models and data assimilation systems Predictability variations sensitive to the initial conditionsensemble forecastJMA one-month ensemble forecast for an SSW event in 2009 Mukougawa (2012) ー observation
ー
ensemble forecast
(50 members)
observation
Slide16Vertical coupling: T-S-M
interactions of multiple processes Multiple time-scalesdaily - ... - multi-decadal Hierarchy of modelssimple - medium - complexPast, present and futureLGM, MH, LMcollaborations with geological people
Summary
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Slide17Thank you !
17
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Slide18独創性及び革新性成層圏突然昇
温現象という極端気象を、 強非線型性な力学現象の不規則で稀な出現と認識 非ガウス型確率密度関数の先端部に関わる統計解析
複雑精緻な気候モデルではどうか ？ 過去気候ではどうだったか ？ 将来気候ではどうなるのか ？18/17220
240 260 280 [K]１２月１月２月Nishizawa and Yoden (2005)出現間隔の統計：ポアソン過程？
Slide19極端気象変動に関する統計則従来の経験則
風速： ワイブル分布降雨量： ガンマ分布雲特性： 対数正規分布・・・・・・周極渦崩壊の形態学観測事例数の不足数値実験による代用計算結果データに基づいて経験則をつくるvs 演繹的な法則強非線型現象の不規則で稀な出現19/17
Slide20独創性及び革新性
あらゆる階層の数値モデルを用いて系統的に実験 ○ 理想化簡略化した低次元モデル(LOM) 100～101自由度； 簡単概念・定性的 ○ 全球３次元の力学モデル(MCM) 104～106自由度； メカニズム理解 ○ 大気大循環モデル
(GCM), 数値天気予報モデル(NPM), 気候モデル(CGCM) 106～109自由度； 複雑精緻・定量的 １９８０年代は低次元モデル、 １９９０年代からは３次元力学モデル、 これからは、複雑精緻モデルも総合的に活用20/17