Mobility Panagiota Manoli University of the Aegean Greece Shizuoka 29 October 2012 The Wider Black Sea Region A politically defined region Who defines the BSR When and How BSEC s Comprehensive Approach ID: 225533
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Slide1
Current Regional Dynamics in the Black Sea Area, With Some References to Economic Transactions and Labor Mobility
Panagiota
Manoli
, University of the Aegean (Greece)
Shizuoka, 29 October 2012Slide2Slide3Slide4
The Wider Black Sea Region: A politically defined region
Who
defines the BSR, When and How?
BSEC
’s Comprehensive Approach
Littoral States
’ Approach (Russia and Turkey)
EU
’s Approach
Core states
EU Member States: Greece, Bulgaria and Romania
EU Candidate Country: Turkey
ENP countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine
Russia: A Strategic Partner but not EU membership aspirations Slide5
Bilateralism
versus
Multilateralism
(
Sectoral versus Comprehensive)
Policy
OptionsSlide6
EU
(high)
BLACK SEA REGIONALISM
Transnational
exchange & demand
(weak)
Economic
difficulties
(high)
Benevolent leading
country
(weak)
Security
dilemma
(high)
Explaining BSRSlide7
BS Regionalism: Key Features
Evolving Process (Three Waves of BRS
Phases: post-Cold War, enlargement, post-enlargement)
Strong
Intergovernmentalism
/weak institutions (BSEC, GUAM, BS Forum)New EU driven initiatives (Synergy, EaP, Black Sea CBC…)Slide8
The Black Sea as a Region: ‘Push’ and ‘Pull’ Factors
Low Regional Coherence
Divergence (political, security, economic, cultural)
Low Interdependences and interconnections
Weak Common Approach
Gravitational Pull
Regional InstitutionsCommon Vulnerabilities
European Integration ProcessSlide9
High growth despite diversity of economies- all countries experience positive growth 2002-08
Over 2000-08 annual real GDP growth averages 5.9%
Living standards/ per capita income rise, poverty rates decline sharply
Private capital flows increase- esp. FDI over 4% GDP 2006-08
Intra-Regional trade, investment, financing, also rise
Regional Trends: 2000-08 Before Economic CrisisSlide10
2000-08: High growth; 2009: Negative; 2010: Recovery; 2011Slide11
Credit to businesses & consumers disappeared reducing liquidity & demand, slowing investment
International trade flows dropped, exports down, contraction in key W. European markets
Problems exacerbated by declines in (
i
) commodity prices, (ii) remittances
Reversal of fortune- poverty/ unemployment/ fiscal deficits up; current account deficits/ trade flows/ inflation down
Painful adjustment process only course for mostShort but Sharp Economic Crisis in Black SeaSlide12
GDP Growth
Inflation
Budget / GDP
Cur Acc Bal/GDP
Public Debt/GDP
Albania
3.3%
2.3%
-7.0%
-15.6%
59.7%
Armenia
-14.2%
3.4%
-7.6%
-16.0%
40.6%
Azerbaijan
9.3%
1.5%
6.6%
23.0%
12.1%
Bulgaria
-5.5%
2.8%
-0.9%
-9.8%
16.0%
Georgia
-3.8%
1.7%
-7.7%
-12.2%37.0%Greece-2.0%1.2%-15.6%-11.0%126.8%Moldova-6.0%0.0%-6.4%-9.8%30.7%Romania-7.1%5.6%-7.3%-4.3%28.2%Russia-7.8%11.7%-6.3%4.0%8.3%Serbia-3.0%8.4%-4.5%-7.1%35.6%Turkey-4.8%6.3%-5.5%-2.3%46.3%Ukraine-14.8%15.9%-6.2%-1.5%34.6%
BSEC Region Macroeconomic Summary for 2009 Slide13
GDP Growth
Inflation
Budget / GDP
Cur Acc Bal/GDP
Public Debt/GDP
Albania
3.4%
3.6%
-3.2%
-12.4%
62.8%
Armenia
2.1%
8.2%
-4.9%
-14.0%
44.0%
Azerbaijan
5.0%
5.7%
14.3%
29.5%
14.1%
Bulgaria
0.2%
2.4%
-3.9%
-0.8%
16.2%
Georgia
6.4%
7.1%
-5.1%
-10.6%42.0%Greece-4.5%4.7%-10.4%-6.5%144.5%Moldova6.9%7.4%-2.5%-9.9%34.1%Romania-2.0%6.1%-6.5%-4.2%34.0%Russia4.0%6.9%-3.6%4.9%9.5%Serbia1.7%6.5%-4.1%-6.5%39.1%Turkey8.9%8.6%-3.6%-6.6%44.7%Ukraine4.2%9.4%-5.2%-2.1%
39.3%
BSEC Region Macroeconomic Summary for 2010 Slide14
Regional Economic Cooperation
Some progress, but levels still low
Much room for growth in trade, investment & financing
Many ‘Win – Win’ possibilities exist
Prospects not favorableLack of political commitmentConfusion & uncertainty of current policies
Economic difficulties
Intensifying bilateral rivalriesEU influence- (i) Diverts country focus westwards, (ii) Rules & restrictions hurt Black Sea cooperation prospectsSlide15
Regional Relations with EU- Why Important?
Most important external economic actor, directly & indirectly, high externality impact
Main market for trade, investment, finance
Key exporter of rules, regulations, standards
Steady expansion of engagement with Black Sea up to 2009, politically and economically.
Ambiguous impact on
Regional Cooperation despite BSS & EaP. Mainly engages countries BilaterallySlide16
Regional Trade: Setback in 2009, Partial Recovery in 2010
(Source: BSTDB 2011)Slide17
Features of Intra-Regional Flows
Regionalization is restrained
Low level of intra-regional trade
Dominant, though slowly declining, role of Russia (among Black Sea partners)
Strong Bilateral links between Russia-Turkey and Ukraine
Low dependence of Russia and Turkey on intra-regional trade
FDI: The outward FDI of Black Sea countries (but Russia) remains regional Slide18
Three key determining factors continue to fuel international
Labour
Migration
:
- the “pull” of changing demographics and
labour
market needs in high-income countries;- the “push” of unemployment, crisis pressures and wage differentials in less developed countries;- established inter-country networks based on family, culture and history. Slide19
Labor Mobility
- BS as transit, destination and origin for labor migrants
Two tracks:
i
) towards western Europe and ii) towards Russia
Largely informal nature of
labour markets in BS countries (repercussions on how labour mobility takes place and on the rights and working conditions of migrants)Brain drain - Trafficking for labour exploitation, including forced labour, is up in the agenda of policy-makers Slide20
Changing Patterns of Labor Mobility
Labor movement reflects:
political disruption (1990s)
cultural affinity
return to home country
shifts in patterns of economic development and the gradual enlargement of the European Union. Slide21Slide22
Labor Migration and Regional Cooperation
Efforts to collaborate (BSEC, IMO, etc)
Free movement of goods and persons is lacking behind Slide23
Thank you