PPT-Ensemble variability in rainfall forecasts of Hurricane Ire

Molly Smith Ryan Torn Kristen Corbosiero and Philip Pegion NWS Focal Points Steve DiRienzo and Mike Jurewicz Fall 2016 CSTAR Meeting 2 November 2016 Motivation Landfalling. Hydrologic Applications and Extension to Ensembles. Barbara Brown. 1. , Edward Tollerud. 2. , . Tara Jensen. 1. , and Wallace Clark. 2. 1. NCAR, USA. 2. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, USA . bgb@ucar.edu. Gebrehiwot. . Niguse. Tesfay. 1. , . Menberu. Bitew. 2. , . Mekonnen. Gebremichael. 2. 1. Ethiopian Institute of Water Resources, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia.. 2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, USA.. David Unger. Climate Prediction Center. Summary. A linear regression model can be designed specifically for ensemble prediction systems.. It is best applied to direct model forecasts of the element in question.. Molly Smith, Ryan Torn, . Kristen . Corbosiero. , and Philip . Pegion. NWS Focal Points: . Steve . DiRienzo. . and Mike . Jurewicz. . WFO . BGM Sub-Regional Workshop . 23 September, 2015. Motivation. Forecast Track Error. Rule of Thumb for . Forecast Track Errors:. 24 hours .  40 nm. 48 hours  70 nm. 72 hours  100 nm. Today’s 3-Day Forecast. i. s as good as a 1-Day. Forecast in 1990.. Intensity Error. Dr. Jonathan Fairman. 21 April 2016. Presentation by Prof. Dave Schultz. Early meteorology was . not. a science. . “. Whatever may be the progress of sciences, NEVER will observers. who are trust-worthy, and careful of their reputation, venture to foretell the state of the weather.. Gebrehiwot. . Niguse. Tesfay. 1. , . Menberu. Bitew. 2. , . Mekonnen. Gebremichael. 2. 1. Ethiopian Institute of Water Resources, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia.. 2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, USA.. its. . Verification. Malaquías. Peña. Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA. 1. Material comprises Sects. . . 6.6, 7.4 and 7.7 in . Wilks. (2. nd. Edition). Additional material and notes from . A Regression Model for Ensemble Forecasts David Unger Climate Prediction Center Summary A linear regression model can be designed specifically for ensemble prediction systems. It is best applied to direct model forecasts of the element in question. – IMPROVING THE VALUE OF VARIABLE AND UNCERTAIN POWER GENERATION IN ENERGY SYSTEMS Karoliina H ENTERTROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTHURRICANE KIKOEP132019September2019David ANational Hurricane Center 10 January 2020 SUOMI NPP/VIIRS NIGHTTIME IMAGE OF HURRICANE KIKO AT 0942 UTC 15 SHurricane Kiko 2 H David Simmons: Global Head of Research Publications, Aon Benfield. New York – 30. th. January 2009. 1. Caribbean Catastrophe Risk and Insurance Fund (CCRIF). 2. Hurricane Dean. 3. Example of TSR hurricane Dean forecast . are known to be factors to which hurricane development is sensitive, and, in particular their ratio Ck/ Cd is a determining factor in a hurricaneÕs maximum intensity (Emanuel 1995). However, due to a october. 2018 flood event in the Aude River basin, France. Charpentier-Noyer. M., Nicolle P., . Payrastre. O., Gaume E., . Bouttier. F., and Marchal H.. New short-range . rainfall. . forecast. .