by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre for Social Applications of GIS The University of Adelaide Presentation on the Occasion of the Launch of the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis NIDEA Te Runanga ID: 260283
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PEOPLE ARE IMPORTANT: THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES FACING NEW ZEALAND AND AUSTRALIA
by
Graeme Hugo
ARC Australian Professorial Fellow
Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre
for Social Applications of GIS,
The University of Adelaide
Presentation on the Occasion of the Launch of the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA), Te Runanga Tatari Tatauranga – University of Waikato
24 November 2010Slide2
Outline of PresentationIntroduction
Why is Demography Relevant?
The Demographic Challenges in OECD Countries
- Ageing and the Workforce
- International Migration
- Climate Change
Policy Implications
ConclusionSlide3
DemographyThe scientific study of the changing size, composition and spatial distribution of the population and the processes which shape them.Slide4
Demographic StudyAnalysis of trendsIdentifying causes
Projecting future populations
Identifying implicationsSlide5
Demography and the FutureProjections Vs PredictionsIndicates what the population will be like given certain assumptions
A partial window on the futureSlide6
Why is this Important?Most business and government involves providing goods or services to people
Hence demand is influenced by:
- number of persons
- their characteristics
- their ability to purchase
Demography does not fully determine demand but it does exert a strong influenceSlide7
How can Demography Assist Business?Marketing and retailing : identifying, locating and understanding the diverse consumer groups that form markets for goods and services
Human resource planning
Site selection and evaluation
Tracking emerging marketsSlide8
The population is constantly changingThe mass market has been replaced by segmented marketsIdentifying growth in particular segments of the market can give a competitive advantage
Demography and MarketsSlide9
Exploding Myths About PopulationPopulation is dynamic, always changing, but the change is gradual
Population is influenced by economic change but not a function of them
Some population change is structural – inevitable and predictable
Population is amenable to policy interventionSlide10
“Over the next couple of decades nothing will impact OECD economies more profoundly than demographic trends and, chief among them, ageing” Jean-Philippe Cotis
Chief Economist, OECD
March 2005Slide11
Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency RatesSource: World Bank, 2006Slide12
Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa)
Source:
ESCAP 2009; Population Reference Bureau 2008 and 2009; ABS 2010; Statistics New ZealandSlide13
ABS Projections of the Population of Australia, 2005 and 2008Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008Slide14
Structural Ageing:Australia: Change by Age: 2006 – 2021; 2031 (Series B)
Source: ABS 2008 ProjectionsSlide15
Baby Boomers 200627.5% of Australian Population41.8% of Australian Workforce
23.9% of New Zealand Population
35.8% of New Zealand WorkforceSlide16
Wittert 2006Slide17
Coping with Ageing Populations (UN)No single action can adequately address the problem. No “silver bullets”Policy adjustments should be carried out be effecting small changes in many domainsMaking adjustments early is easier than delaying things until there is a crisisSlide18
Specific Actions (UN)Increase labour force participationImmigrationIncreased age at retirementDecrease benefits to retireesIncrease contribution of workers to social security system
Change in social security system from pay as you go to capitalisation
Promotion of increases in productivity and development of new innovationsSlide19
The 3Ps of Growth in Real GDP Per PersonSource: Swan 2010, p.xiiiSlide20
The Fourth P: PreparationAt individual and household levelsCommunity and provincial levelsNational levelSlide21
The New Paradigm of International MigrationTransnationalism Vs Permanent RelocationIncreased focus on skillIncreasing “onshore” migrationThe challenge of refugees and asylum seekersDevelopment can be positive for sending areasSlide22
The New Paradigm of International Migration (cont.)The Pacific ChallengeChanging balance between Gateway Cities and RegionsEmigration and the DiasporaEnvironment and MigrationSlide23
Top Immigration Countriesa, 2010 percentage of population
Source: World Bank, 2011Slide24
Top Emigration Countriesa, 2010 percentage of population
Source: World Bank, 2011Slide25
Global Skilled MigrationTwin DriversDemographic differentialsThe war for talent – increasing demand for human capitalSlide26
National Diasporas in Relation to Resident National PopulationsSource: US Census Bureau, 2002a and b; Southern Cross, 2002; Bedford, 2001; Ministry of External Affairs, India, http://indiandiaspora.nic.in; Naseem, 1998; Sahoo, 2002; Iguchi, 2004; Gutièrrez, 1999; Philippines Overseas Employment Service; Asian Migration News, 15-31 January 2006; OECD database on immigrants and expatriates; Luconi 2006; Nguyen Anh 2005; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/korean_diasporaSlide27
Emigration, Development and DiasporaShift in DiscoursePotential Positive Role - Remittances - FDI - Social Remittances
- Return - Permanent
- Temporary
- Virtual
The key role of policy in origin and destinationSlide28
Reassessing the Settlement SystemNew environment and economic realityNew elements of economy – tourism, mining, growing importance of food security, agriculture, processingNew environmental realitiesNew methods of transport and communicationThe baby boomers
Climate changeSlide29
The Climate ChallengeEnvironment and PopulationInternal Population DistributionInternational Dimensions – the PacificSlide30
The Population Dilemma in AustraliaThe need for growth – increased demand for workers and replacement task for baby boomersThe constraints of environmentSlide31
The Role of PolicyAnticipating shifts in population and preparing for themDeveloping policy to intervene to influence population changeSlide32
What is Needed?Currently there is an unproductive debate between 'pro growth' and 'stop growth' lobbies
There must be trade offs and compromises which
facilitate growth with sustainability
, informed by the best information and knowledge available across all relevant disciplines
Regardless, there will be substantial continued population growth over the next two decades but we need to carefully consider
(a) How much growth and not adopt unsubstantiated
aspirational population targets?
(b) Where is that growth best located?Slide33
The Role of ResearchDiscourse around the population issue is too often subject to self interest, populism, bigotry and misinformationThe debate is often hijacked by interest groupsNeed for soundly based, focused and multi-disciplinary research to inform both public debate and policy formulationSlide34
ConclusionDemographically Australia and New Zealand are better placed than most OECD countries to fact the challenges of the next 2 decadesHowever policy intervention will be needed to maximise opportunities and minimise negative effectsThe role of NIDEA