change your nations SAT score Garett Jones George Mason University In the short run 20 years or so the net benefits of open borders are clear Good econ looks at the 100 year long run too ID: 479348
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Slide1
will open borders change your nation’s SAT score?
Garett Jones
George Mason UniversitySlide2
In the short run, 20 years or so, the net benefits of open borders are clearSlide3
Good econ looks at the 100+ year long run too
“
Your theory is confined to that which is seen; it takes no account of that which is not seen.” –
Bastiat
, 1850Slide4
Would open borders wound the golden goose? Slide5Slide6
the Deep Roots Theory of Economic development: A first look
Spolaore
and
Wacziarg
, Journal of Economic Literature, 2013. Slide7
What’s your nation’s SAT score?
S:
States: Time living under a non-tribal government
A:
Agriculture: Millennia of farming experience
T:
Technology: Index of past technology adoption
(e.g., writing, metal, vehicles)Slide8
Migration changes your nation’s sat score
The post-1500 world:
a set of often-brutal experimentsSlide9
The “A” In SAT: Agricultural history Source: Chanda
, Cook,
Putterman
, 2014Slide10
Technology: The “T” in SAT, from the NYT
How would open borders adjust your nation’s “Migration-Adjusted Technology Heritage?” Slide11
Inspecting the goose: Just the Ag channel
Consider a purely hypothetical case:
Open borders leads to an “average” ancestry-adjusted agricultural history
North America’s magic makes open borders doable:
30% average income decline, but maybe your descendants will be on top!
Open borders for Hong Kong:
70% average decline, harder to imagine this as a winner for your descendants.
Slide12
One way migration might matter: The most controversial sentence in my new book ON IQ
“[G]
overnments
are made by people,
after all.”Slide13
Nathan nunn of Harvard on the deep history theory of development
“….the
primary thing that migrants brought with them is
themselves
…Along
with the settlers also came their
beliefs and values
regarding
freedom, liberty, equality,
and the
appropriate role of government. These were the crucial factors that determined the nature of the initial institutions that were established
.
“Culture and the Historical Process,” 2012,
emphasis added. Slide14
“Ancestry-adjusted” SAT+predicts good institutions
James B.
Ang
, Journal of Development Economics, 2013Slide15
Your nation’s sat score matters so much more than your ownSlide16
Do new voters change the government? The best-documented case:
“In
the United States, the
enfranchisement of women
was associated with a 24% increase in state social
spending…”
“…[M]ore
liberal voting patterns and an increase in government
expenditures…A
similar pattern has been observed in six Western European countries between 1869 and
1960.”
Switzerland in 1971:
28% more social spending
Source:
Doepke
,
Tertilt
,
Voena
.
Annual Reviews in Economics
, 2012.Slide17
Lesson:voter beliefs last, even when living in a country for decades
other studies show migrants keep some home-country attitudes for at least 1 or 2 generationsSlide18
Pressing the button for Singapore?One alternative: Skilled migration with a partial focus on high SAT (States/Ag/Tech) countries
One long-run alternative to open borders (cf. Canada or Hong Kong)
Raising the U.S. SAT score to Singapore’s: Maybe an 80% rise in long-run wages!Slide19
Diversity and the Rule of Law, a cross country look by Easterly et al.Slide20
An author on the open borders blog commenting on my theory:
“….the
claim that open borders would dramatically raise world
GDP…cannot
withstand the
‘hive mind’
hypothesis about the determination of GDP
.”
“
Open
Borders and the Hive Mind Hypothesis,” Nathan Smith, 2015. The “Hive Mind” Hypothesis: Your fellow citizens shape your personal productivity, your income, your way of life, by shaping your government, your culture, and more.
Your “neighborhood’s” average skill level matters more than your own. Slide21
What is this “Hive mind” theory that is such a risk to open borders?
The “Hive Mind”
Hypothesis
Your
fellow citizens shape your personal productivity, your income, your
worldview,
by shaping your government, your culture, and more.
A national economy is a team effort so…
Your nation’s
average skill level matters more than your own. Slide22
“How Would a Billion Immigrants Change the American Polity?”
From the Open Borders blog, 2015:
“…governing
a much larger population would necessitate improvisational and sometimes authoritarian
expedients…”
“Certain
American ideals would die of their own increasing impracticality, e.g.,
‘equality of employment,’
the social safety net, one person, one vote, or non-discrimination in employment.
”Slide23
“How would a billion immigrants” continued: “If open borders included open voting, US political institutions would be overhauled very quickly as political parties reinvented themselves to appeal to the vast immigrant masses
…”
“Many natives would retreat into gated communities, not so much from fear of crime as simply from love of the familiar.” Slide24
The optimistic conclusion of a leading open borders advocate
“
In short, I think the most wild-eyed predictions of the open borders optimists will come true, and to
spare,
but
I think a lot of the forebodings of the grimmest open border pessimists will also prove more than justified
.” Slide25
A final look at the quote, with my commentary:
“
In short, I think the most wild-eyed predictions of the open borders optimists will come true, and to
spare,
[in the short run]
but
I think a lot of the forebodings of the grimmest open border pessimists will also prove more than justified
.”
[in the long run]