Andy Nash NOAANWS Burlington Michael Muccilli NOAANWS Burlington Nathan Foster NOAANWS Las Vegas WFO BGM SubRegional Workshop 2015 WFO BGM SubRegional Workshop Its an impact severity index ID: 393521
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Slide1
Winter Storm Impact Index (WSII)
Andy Nash, NOAA/NWS Burlington
Michael Muccilli, NOAA/NWS Burlington
Nathan Foster, NOAA/NWS Las Vegas
WFO BGM Sub-Regional WorkshopSlide2
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
It’s an impact severity index…
2Slide3
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
What/Why?
3
NDFD + GIS Winter Index
Uses our own Forecast Data
Non-meteorological data-sets opens up many possibilities
IDSS is growing focus of NWS (winter weather is high impact)
Not every 6” snowstorm is the same
Goes Beyond “Watch”, “Warning”, “Advisory”
What does a
Winter Storm Warning
mean?Slide4
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
The Goal: Weather Ready Nation
Deliver Impact Based/Severity Weather Information
Enhance Decision Support Services
Simplify Hazard Messaging
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2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Identified Service Gap
Current WWA Paradigm – Black & White
Does Forecast Exceed Threshold?
(Yes/No)
Mother Nature – Shades Of Gray
4 inches of wet snow vs. 8 inches of upslope fluff
5Slide6
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
6
ExampleSlide7
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
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ExampleSlide8
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Able to show Severity
Where is the Worst?
Better convey levels of warning
What kind of storm? Run of the mill or something crippling?
Warning vs. “Super Warning”
May Catch things you’re not thinking of
Snow Loading?
8
What Can It Do?Slide9
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Risk Is Severity/Impact Based
Historic/Rare/Common/Very Common
9Slide10
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Winter Storm Impact Index (WSII) Project
Began Winter 2013-2014
Posting to a password-restricted web page
Updated Hourly
Running in an ArcGIS environment
Enlisted a few offices to review output and provide comments/verification
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2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Meteorological Inputs
Total Snowfall
Snowfall Accumulation Rate
Snow-Liquid Ratio
Blowing/Drifting Snow
Ice Accumulation
*Flash Freeze (NEW)
**Snow Loading (In progress)
11
Available in or derived from NDFD
!!Slide12
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Non-Meteorological Inputs
Land Use / Land Cover Type
Climatology (Resources available)
***Population (Future)
***Time of Day / Day of Week (Future)
12
There are (or could be)
GIS data layers for theseSlide13
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Components
13
Snow Amount
Snow Accum Rate
Blowing Snow
Ice / SPIA
Snow Loading
From NDFD
Normalized Based on Climatology
Derived from NDFD/NOHRSC
Normalized Based on Land Cover/Use
Same as Experimental Product in CR/SR
(Wind/Ice Accumulation)
Non-Forecast
Land Use, Climatology, Forest/Plains Cover
Flash FreezeSlide14
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Climatology
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2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Normalizing for Climatology
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2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Normalizing for Climatology
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2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Verification Input From…
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2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Verification
18
2013/2014-
Majority +/- 1 Category Difference
2013/2014-
0.77 correlation
(assumes perfect forecasts)
2014/2015-
WSII Slight High Bias
2014/2015-
56% were +/- 1 Category
2014/2015- Events Skewed LargerSlide19
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Other Efforts – Grand Rapids
19
Being used in operational IDSS briefings
Considerable Customer Feedback (positive and helped to evolve/fine tune the service)Slide20
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Similar Methods/Results
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2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Benefits
21
Allows Forecasters to Concentrate on Forecast
Map-Based (Improves Granularity and levels of impact)
Ability to Show Details beyond the current “WWA” Map
Ties into the
HazSimp
Project
Can leverage information from the Impacts Catalog Project
Differing Severity/Impacts within same Warning
Possible Concerns Outside of Initial Forecast
Snow-Loading on Trees/Roofs
Push Model Data through the Algorithms
Real Time Ensemble of Risk/Potential ImpactSlide22
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Weaknesses
22
Is built upon a level of subjectivity
Only as good as the forecast
Not a forecast of specific impacts (i.e. closing schools)Slide23
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Next Steps
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Determine how to “model” other factors
Population, timing (rush hour vs. overnight vs. weekend)
Conduct Usability Studies
Actions to be taken greatly different for ice vs. blowing snow, even if both show up “Red” on the Map
Better temporal resolution (currently limited by NDFD 6 Hour)
National Goal for Winter Weather Program (test offices)Slide24
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
Additional Materials
24
More Info on WSII:
http://goo.gl/I1UCTmSlide25
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
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Thank You!
Questions?Slide26
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
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Extra slides / casesSlide27
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
27
Atlanta “
Carmageddon
”Slide28
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
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SE Ice Storm 02/12/14Slide29
2015 WFO BGM Sub-Regional Workshop
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Blizzard of 2015 – DSS Example
Potential Level of Impacts
(Experimental)
Depicts potential societal disruption due to combination of all aspects of a winter
storm (Total
snow accumulation, blowing
/ drifting
snow & rate of snow
accumulation)
Minor
: minor disruption to those not prepared. Recovery time less than 1 day
.
Moderate
: definite impacts
to primarily
those not prepared. Recovery time about a day
.
Major
: Impacts to even those who prepared. Recovery time up to several
days
Crippling
: Widespread significant impacts. Recovery time of many days to a week
.