Three phases of possible interception. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). US Missile Defense Agency THAAD Fact Sheet. http://www.mda.mil/global/documents/pdf/. thaad.pdf. US Wants THAAD in South Korea (can watch video). ID: 624614
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Ballistic Missile Defense
Slide2Slide3Three phases of possible interception
Slide4Slide5Slide6Slide7Slide8Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
US Missile Defense Agency THAAD Fact Sheet
http://www.mda.mil/global/documents/pdf/
thaad.pdf
US Wants THAAD in South Korea (can watch video)
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-proposes-advanced-missile-defense-system-in-south-korea
/
Slide9Slide10THAAD might not be good
Back in the “good old days” of the Cold War, arms control specialists understood that a missile defense race was just as bad as an arms race
.
If the United States and the Soviet Union began to pour money into what was then called ABM (anti-ballistic missile) sites, they would spur the other to increase spending on missiles to overwhelm those sites.
They
would then build more ABM sites. The two sides wisely concluded an ABM treaty in 1972 that limited the two sides to only one site each.
The
United States eventually withdrew from the treaty in 2002, the first major international arms treaty it abandoned
.
Slide11But THAAD is a waste of money whoever is footing the bill.
It
has not been demonstrated to work effectively.
It
pushes China and North Korea to spend more money on more missiles to overwhelm THAAD (just as the United States is moved to spend more money on missile upgrades to counteract the missile defense of other countries).
And
it is a poor substitute for arms control negotiations.
Instead
of letting Lockheed Martin determine the security politics of Northeast Asia, it’s crucial to bring the diplomats back to the negotiating table to address the causes of insecurity and not just the symptoms
. John
Feffer
http://www.lobelog.com/the-madness-of-thaad/#more-29334
Slide12Who is John Feffer?
About John
Feffer
“John
Feffer
is the the editor of
LobeLog
and the director of Foreign Policy In Focus at the Institute for Policy Studies. He is also the author, most recently, of Crusade 2.0. He is a former Open Society fellow,
PanTech
fellow, and
Scoville
fellow, and his articles have appeared in The New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Review of Books, Salon, and many other publications
.”
Website:
http://www.johnfeffer.com
Slide13What is the Institute for Policy Studies?
“IPS
is a community of public scholars and organizers linking peace, justice, and the environment in the U.S. and globally. We work with social movements to promote true democracy and challenge concentrated wealth, corporate influence, and military power
.”
Slide14IPS
“As Washington’s first progressive multi-issue think tank, the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) has served as a policy and research resource for visionary social justice movements for over four decades — from the anti-war and civil rights movements in the 1960s to the peace and global justice movements of the last decade.
Some of the greatest progressive minds of the 20th and 21st centuries have found a home at IPS, starting with the organization’s founders, Richard Barnet and Marcus
Raskin
. IPS scholars have included such luminaries as Arthur
Waskow
, Gar
Alperovitz
, Saul Landau, Bob Moses, Rita Mae Brown, Barbara
Ehrenreich
, Roger Wilkins and Orlando
Letelier
.”
Slide15“THAAD’s efficacy in dispute” in South Korea also
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150402000987
4/02/15 article in Korean Herald. Lots of pros and cons.
Slide16A more pro-THAAD perspective
http://missilethreat.com/thaad-americas-super-shield-ballistic-missiles/Ballistic missiles are an increasing threat to the security of the United States, U.S. forces deployed abroad and our allies. Missilethreat.com is a clearinghouse for information on ballistic missile proliferation and the defenses being developed by the United States and others.
Slide17Problems with BMD
Ballistic missile interceptors undermine deterrence by theoretically being able to prevent effective retaliation.
Nuclear
weapons allegedly deter would-be attackers by promising devastating retaliation.
If a nation has BMD, it cannot be deterred.
Slide18Problems with BMD
Ballistic missile interceptors have not been very successful even when programmed with the target missile’s location.
ICBMs
are travelling 16,000 mph as they near their targets and they can maneuver and wiggle.
Slide19Missile interceptor fails latest long range test
http://tucson.com/business/local/missile-interceptor-fails-latest-long-range-test/article_4b718cfa-6967-5bdd-bf18-35b8aba80ee5.
html
Update: June 1, 2015
http
://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/3979m-next-step-or-last-step-for-gmd-05229
/
Slide20EKV – Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle
http://defence.pk/threads/boeing-led-missile-defense-team-achieves-intercept-in-flight-test.320424/
Slide21Problems with BMD
A BMD system would involve very complicated system computer technology which can never be tested as a system until it needs to work
.
ICBMs can deploy hundreds of decoys that are indistinguishable from the real warheads, compromising BMD.
Slide22Problems with BMD
Offensive missiles are cheaper than interceptors, so a BMD system can be cost-effectively overwhelmed by a nation producing more offensive missiles.
BMD does not protect against terrorist weapons that could be delivered by a boat, a small airplane, a van, or in a shipping container
.
Slide23
Problems with BMD
BMD undermines disarmament with false promises of safety
.
Slide24
Problems with BMD
BMD is very expensive and takes money away from foreign aid, education, environmental remediation, renewable energy, and other arenas that would actually make the world
safer.
BMD needs are endless. You can never have enough BMD.
Slide25President Eisenhower’s Cross of Iron speech
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.
…
This
world in arms in not spending money alone
.
It
is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children.
This
is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.
Slide26Cruise Missile Defense
Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. James
Winnefeld
said
“A
surprise cruise missile strike (say, from ships or submarines offshore) could decapitate the US leadership and stop us from retaliating against a subsequent ICBM strike,
Winnefeld
said: That’s “why homeland cruise missile defense is shifting above regional missile ballistic defense in my mind, as far as importance goes.”
“Cruise missile defense is a different animal,” said
Karako
. “In 2003, we intercepted a number of Iraqi ballistic missiles, but we missed all five Iraqi cruise missiles fired, including one that nearly hit the Marine headquarters in Kuwait on the first day of the war.
”
http://breakingdefense.com/2015/05/hill-csis
-seek-new-defenses-for-a-new-missile-age
/
Slide27BMD leads to weapons in space
BMD, especially if it leads to weapons in space, is decidedly hegemonic and unfriendly and sparks unfriendly responses in nations who are not staunch allies. Russia, in particular, is threated by US BMD. China is threatened by the possibility of weapons in space
.
The US withdrew from the ABM treaty in 2002 in
order
to research weapons in space, forbidden by that treaty.
Slide28ABM Treaty Withdrawal an Attack on American Security
Thursday, December 13, 2001
Statement
by the Federation of American Scientists
Scientists who built the first atomic bomb founded the Federation of American Scientists in 1945. More than half of the current American Nobel Laureates today serve on the FAS Board of Sponsors. FAS conducts research, analysis, and advocacy on public policy issues created by advances in science and
technology.
Slide29The Bush
Administration’s
decision to withdraw from the ABM treaty is both unnecessary and unwise.
It
is ironic that as we rediscover the need for international cooperation, we are taking an action almost universally opposed by our allies
.
And our allies are not the only ones who support the ABM treaty: Scientists are nearly unanimous in calling national missile defense unworkable
.
It is distressing that President Bush has chosen to listen to the demagoguery of missile-defense enthusiasts instead of to the wisdom of
America’s
brightest scientists.
Slide30In a letter to Congress sent a month ago, fifty-one American Nobel Laureates in the sciences, addressing the technical feasibility of NMD, wrote:
“While ‘hitting
a bullet with a
bullet’
under laboratory conditions is feasible, it is far more difficult to design a system that can survive and provide effective protection against a surprise attack that employs varying countermeasures, some of which may surprise the defense.
The
inherent advantages of the offense exceed the advantages of superior American technology
.”
Slide31President Bush has lost focus on where his priorities should be.
The
President must invest at least as much energy into securing loose nuclear materials as he has into pushing missile defense
.
If not, at the end of this road we will find terrorists with nuclear weapons.
We must remember, however, that the declaration is merely one of
intent.
America has not yet actually withdrawn from the ABM treaty. The next six months will be crucial in determining
America’s
future security
.
FAS urges Congress to act vigorously against ABM treaty withdrawal.
FAS
also calls on Russia, China, and other states to renew their commitments to multilateral arms control and nonproliferation.
Slide32America has always sought to lead the world by example. Yet if other countries were to follow the example we have just set, the framework of international law would disintegrate.
President Bush has just released
NMD’s
first shot, and it has landed squarely in the heart of American security.
http://fas.org/nuke/control/abmt/011213-
abm.htm
Slide33Ballistic missile defense and space weapons
What are space weapons?
Space weapons usually refers to weapons orbiting the earth in low-earth orbit.
Low earth orbit is 100-1200 miles up.
Space weapons could target other space weapons or strike targets on earth.
Slide34Why space weapons?
Boost-phase defense against ballistic missiles.
Strike the missiles when they are moving slowly over their own territory.
Strike land targets using space weapons in orbit.
Trouble is, other nations are strongly upset at the prospect of US space weapons orbiting Earth.
Another trouble is, using anti-satellite weapons (ASATs) to eliminate space weapons in orbit would create much more space debris, threatening all satellites in orbit.
Slide35Space Debris is already a problem
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=40173
Slide36Anti-Satellite weapons (ASATs) are also a problem
https://vimeo.com/129392931
Slide37The High Frontier
Slide38The High Frontier
www.highfrontier.org
Slide39Is this vision real?
Check out this posting by the former US Space Commandwww.fas.orgPut Vision for 2020 into the search machine.
Slide40US Space Command becomes the Joint Functional Component Command for Space branch of US Strategic Command
Slide41US Space Security
http://www.ucsusa.org/our-work/nuclear-weapons/space-security#.VcULbaU-Bz8
Slide42So what’s good about BMD?
Americans in general support BMD because BMD appears to make us safer.
The
more BMD we have, the safer we will be, or so it seems.
The
military-industrial complex loves BMD! The need for ABM interceptors is essentially infinite, hence unending highly paying jobs are available to those in the military-industrial complex.
And
BMD can be exported also!
Slide43Rogue states with ballistic missiles
It might be a good idea to have a small number of ground or ship based interceptors that could shoot down a ballistic missile launched by a rogue state like North Korea.
Have to be careful not to mess with China’s deterrence. Not good to stimulate a large increase in China’s minimalistic nuclear
missile forces.
Slide44Iron Dome: the public relations weapon
http://thebulletin.org/iron-dome-public-relations-weapon7308
Slide45The unsheltering sky
http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21615068-even-new-technology-americas-multi-billion-dollar-efforts-build-
shield
Even with new technology, America’s multi-billion-dollar efforts to build a shield against long-range ballistic missiles looks doomed
Sep 6th 2014 |
Read more at
http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21615068-even-new-technology-americas-multi-billion-dollar-efforts-build-shield#GGb23BxpXlsmzOms.
99
Slide46The Fallacy of Proven and Adaptable Defenses
http://fas.org/pir
-pubs/fallacy-proven-adaptable-defenses
/
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