Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 20 - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial ConditionsIssued 14 July 2014

Forecast Background

ENSO update

Current State of the global climate

SST Forecasts

Regional Rainfall Forecast

maps

SummarySlide2

CPC ENSO Update

CPC ENSO

Alert

System Status

:

El Niño Watch

Synopsis:

The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early

winter.

(Updated on July 10, 2014)

http

://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtmlSlide3

Sea surface temperatures (SST) are above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean

.

Above-average SST persisted over South Atlantic.

Current State of the Global Ocean

SST Anomaly (top) for

June 2014

and Tendency (bottom) for

June minus May

Positive SST anomalies persisted over much of the Indian Ocean.

Changes in equatorial SST anomalies were positive across the Central and East Pacific.

Last Month

SST tendency was positive

across the

southern Indian Ocean.Slide4

SST was above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Current State of the Global

Ocean

Positive SST anomalies were present

over the southern Indian Ocean.

Weekly SST Anomaly

06 July – 12 July 2014

and

Tendency for 06 July – 12 July minus 29 June – 05 July 2014 Last Week

Negative SST tendency was observed over eastern Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

Negative SST tendency was observed

across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.Slide5

OLR Anomaly,

June 2014

Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading)

was

observed

across the Maritime Continent, portions of Central Pacific, Central America and Caribbean regions.

Precipitation was suppressed (orange-red shading) over

many parts of India, extending into northern Indian Ocean, over parts of Southwest Pacific and North America. Slide6

Low Level 850 mb Wind Anomaly

Anomalous low-level

westerly

winds were observed across the eastern equatorial

Pacific and equatorial Atlantic.

Anomalous southerly winds over northern Indian Ocean, turning into

southeasterlies

over the Arabian Sea may have contributed to the observed below-average rainfall over parts India. Slide7

Upper Level 200 mb Wind Anomaly

Easterly

wind anomalies

were observed in

the upper-level (200-hPa)

over

the

central equatorial Pacific Ocean, mostly south of the equator..Slide8

Time

Longitude

Monitoring the Madden Julian

Oscillation

The

ensemble GFS forecast indicates

weakening of the MJO signal during Week-1 and Week-2.Slide9

The IOD index was negative during early June.Slide10

Summary of State of the Global Climate in June 2014

ENSO neutral condition continued with OIv2

NINO3.4 value of 0.5

o

C

in June 2014.

Sea surface temperatures (SST) are above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.SST

was above-average in the south Atlantic and much of the Indian Oceans. The IOD index was slightly below-average during early July.Enhanced precipitation was observed across the Maritime Continent, portions of Central Pacific, Central America and Caribbean regions.

Precipitation was suppressed over many parts of India, extending into northern Indian Ocean, over parts of Southwest Pacific and North AmericaSlide11

Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate more warming coming in the months ahead, leading to sustained El Niño conditions by the middle of northern summer

.

IRI/CPC NINO3.4 Forecast Plume

Season

La Niña

Neutral

El Niño

JJA 2014

1%

35%

64%

JAS 2014

1%

31%

68%

ASO 2014

1%

27%

72%

SON 2014

1%

23%

76%

OND 2014

1%

21%

78%

NDJ 2014

2%

20%

78%

DJF 2014

3%

22%

75%

JFM 2015

3%

25%

72%

FMA 2015

3%

28%

69%Slide12

Global SST Outlook: NCEP

CFS.v2

Forecast

Initial Conditions

01 – 08 July 2014

Aug - Oct 2014

Sep - Nov 2014

Oct - Dec 2014

Nov 2014 - Jan 2015

Caution

: Ocean areas

with skill less than 0.3

are shaded in gray

Dec 2014 - Feb 2015

CFS.v2 predicts

warmer than normal SST across equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the Indian Ocean.

Additional forecast resources are found here:

http

://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/index.shtml

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/Slide13

Global SST Outlook:

NMME (top panel) & IMME (bottom panel)

Aug - Oct 2014

Sep - Nov 2014

Oct - Dec 2014

NMME

I

MMESlide14
Slide15

IOD Outlook (source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology)

The IOD

index is expected to remain near-average.Slide16

Rainfall Guidance, Africa: NMME

,

Masked Standardized Anomaly,

(

01 – 08 July 2014 IC

)

Aug - Oct 2014

Sep - Nov 2014

Oct

-

Dec

2014

Nov 2014

-

Jan 2015The forecasts call

for

climatology over much of Africa, except for a slight tilt in the odds to favor above-average rainfall over portions of the Gulf of Guinea and Sahel regions, during the Aug-Oct and Sep-Nov seasons. There is also a slight tilt in the odds to favor above average rainfall over southern Somalia and eastern Kenya during the Oct-Dec and Nov-Jan seasons.

Individual model forecasts can be found here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme1.shtml

Gray shade indicates areas where skill is lower than 0.3.Slide17

Rainfall Guidance,

CAM and Caribbean:

NMME

,

Masked Standardized Anomaly,

(

01 – 08 July 2014 IC

)

Aug - Oct 2014

Sep - Nov 2014

Oct

-

Dec

2014

Nov 2014

- Jan 2015

The forecasts call

for

a tilt in the odds to favor below-average rainfall over portions of the central America and Caribbean region.

Gray shade indicates areas where skill is lower than 0.3.

Individual model forecasts can be found here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme1.shtmlSlide18

Rainfall Guidance, South America: NMME

,

Masked Standardized Anomaly,

(

01 – 08 July 2014 IC

)

Aug - Oct 2014

Sep - Nov 2014

Oct

-

Dec

2014

Nov 2014

-

Jan 2015The forecasts call for a tilt in the odds to favor below-average rainfall across northern South America. In contrast, there is a slight tilt in the odds to favor above average rainfall over portions of southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northern Argentina.

Individual model forecasts can be found here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme1.shtml

Gray shade indicates areas where skill is lower than 0.3.Slide19

Rainfall Guidance, Central Asia: NMME

,

Masked Standardized Anomaly,

(

01 – 08 July 2014 IC

)

Aug - Oct 2014

Sep - Nov 2014

Oct

-

Dec

2014

Nov 2014

-

Jan 2015

The forecasts call for climatology over much of Central Asia, except for a tilt in the odds to favor below-average rainfall over portions of northwestern India and during Aug to Oct and Oct to Dec seasons.

Individual model forecasts can be found here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/nmme/nmme1.shtml

Gray shade indicates areas where skill is lower than 0.3.Slide20

Summary

Neutral ENSO state continued to prevail in

June. Above-average

Sea surface temperatures (SST) was observed over the

equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Positive SST anomalies persisted over the central southern Indian Ocean.The chance of El Niño is about 70% during the Northern Hemisphere summer and is close to 80% during the fall and early winter.

The masked standardized precipitation anomaly forecasts, call for a slight tilt

in the odds to favor above-average over portions of the Gulf of Guinea and Sahel regions, southern Somalia, eastern Kenya. In contrast, forecasts call for a tilt in the odds to favor below-average rainfall over northern India, and portions of Central America and northern South America.Additional forecast resources can be found here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/index.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/