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How unmarried  w omen, youth and people of color How unmarried  w omen, youth and people of color

How unmarried w omen, youth and people of color - PowerPoint Presentation

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How unmarried w omen, youth and people of color - PPT Presentation

d efined this election November 19 2012 Methodology and Specifications 2 This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps The survey of 1001 likely ID: 637827

rae women vote unmarried women rae unmarried vote obama romney gap married undecided points candidate republican election democrat barack

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Slide1

How unmarried

women, youth and people of color defined this electionNovember 19, 2012Slide2

Methodology and Specifications2

This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps.The survey of 1001 likely 2012 voters nationwide was conducted from November 5-7, 2012.Survey results weighted to reflect National Exit Survey. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence.Slide3

The Rising American Electorate (RAE) includes unmarried women, people of color, and those under the age of 30. In total, they comprise the majority (53.6%) of the voting eligible population. Unmarried women are the largest segment of this group and drive

its composition.Source: 2010 CPS/November CPS supplements on voting and registration 115 million eligible voters (

53.6% of all eligible voters) are in the RAE

6.8m

Latina unmarried women

18.1m

young unmarried women

10.1m

AA unmarried women

3.3m

other unmarried womenSlide4

+39

By Holding the RAE, Obama Held the White House Rising American Electorate+35

+19

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for --

Democrat

Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney?

4

Non-Rising American Electorate

+28

2008

2012

2008

2012

*Note:

2008 results

reflect the findings of the combined WVWV/CAF/RR/DCOR post-election

results. Slide5

If Unmarried Women had Voted as their Married Sisters Did, Obama Would Have Lost the Electoral College5

FL:  Romney wins by 718,254IA: Romney wins by 28,870NV: Romney wins by 43,687OH: Romney wins by 358,923PA: Romney wins by 295,789VA: Romney wins by 177,829WI: Romney wins by 16,964Slide6

© Greenberg Quinlan Rosner6

Unmarried Women Decided this electionSlide7

7

RAE Nearly Half the 2012 Electorate Rising American Electorate

Unmarried women

Youth

African Americans

+3

+3

+1

+1

Percent of the Electorate

Hispanics

-

*Note:

Survey Results Reflect

Estimates From

Edison/

Mitofsky

/CNN

exit polls

.Slide8

+34

Youth (18-29)+238

2008

2012

+40

Unmarried Women

+36

2008

2012

+36

Hispanics

+44

2008

2012

Obama Holds Unmarried Women and Grows Hispanic Support

*Note:

results come

from

Edison/

Mitofsky

/CNN

exit polls.

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for --

Democrat

Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? Slide9

Gender Gap is Big, but Marriage Gap is Huge

Men9

Women

-7

+11

-7

+

36

Gender Gap: 18

Marriage Gap: 43

Married Women

Unmarried Women

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for --

Democrat

Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney?

*Note:

Survey Results Reflect

Estimates From

Edison/

Mitofsky

/CNN

exit polls

.Slide10

Congressional Democrats Rebound from 2010 Among Unmarried Women

Now let me ask you about the election for Congress, did you vote for -- (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?10*Note: 2008 results reflect the findings of the combined WVWV/CAF/RR/DCOR post-election results, -3

+40

43

Marriage Gap:

Married Women

Unmarried Women

-14

+16

30

-9

+39

48

Married Women

Unmarried Women

Married Women

Unmarried Women

2008

2010

2012Slide11

11

Marriage Gap Dwarfs Gender Gap since 1992*Note: Survey Results Reflect Estimates From Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls.Slide12

12

 Obama-Romney  Obama-RomneyMarriage gap Married women 

 46-53

Unmarried women 

67-31

 

43

White married women

 

38-58

White unmarried women

 

52-42

 

30

Non-white married women

 

78-22

Non-white unmarried women

 

90-9

 

25

Married women under 40

 

48-51

Unmarried

women under 40

 

76-23

 56Married women, non-college 44-55

Unmarried women

, non-college

 65-34

 

42

Married women, college

 

47-52

Unmarried women, college

 

70-29

 

46

Married women, battleground states

 

51-48

Unmarried women, battleground states

 

67-33

 

31

Marriage Gap in Extends Throughout the ElectorateSlide13

+29

Colorado13

Unmarried Women

Married Women

Marriage Gap in Battleground States

*

Note: Results come

from

Edison/

Mitofsky

/CNN

exit polls.

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for --

Democrat

Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney?

+36

Florida

Unmarried Women

Married Women

+38

Iowa

Unmarried Women

Married Women

+46

Nevada

Unmarried Women

Married Women

Marriage Gap:Slide14

+19

New Hampshire14

Unmarried Women

Married Women

Marriage Gap in Battleground States

*

Note: Results come

from

Edison/

Mitofsky

/CNN

exit polls.

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for --

Democrat

Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney?

+38

Ohio

Unmarried Women

Married Women

+36

Virginia

Unmarried Women

Married Women

+35

Wisconsin

Unmarried Women

Married Women

Marriage Gap:Slide15

RAE

Cultural Divide15Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Non-RAE

Net: +52

Mean:

69.6

Net: +13

Mean:

55

Net:

-22

Mean:

36.8

Net:

-2Mean:

45.9Net: +8Mean: 52Net: -9

Mean:

44.8

Gay Marriage

Tea Party

RAE

Non-RAE

RAE

Non-RAE

Planned ParenthoodSlide16

Republican Brand Problem with RAE

16Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Democratic PartyDemocrats in CongressRepublican Party

Republican Congress

Net:

+22

RAE

Non-RAE

RAE

Non-RAE

RAE

Non-RAE

RAE

Non-RAE

Net:

-27

Net:

-20

Net:

+1

Net:

+26

Net:

-20

Net:

-18

Net:

+11Slide17

17

Ratings on new health care reform law have improved in recent months Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold… The new health care reform law.Slide18

RAE

Favorable Reaction to Healthcare Among RAE voters 18Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Net: -30

Mean: 34.0

Mean:

53.7

Net:

+12

The New Health Care Reform Law

Non-RAESlide19

19

Now let me read you a list of reasons to support Barack Obama. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Barack Obama?

Leadership and National Security

Support Women and Minorities

Social

Insurance

Took out Osama bin Laden and ended wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

Stood up for minorities and equal rights, like the Dream Act

Respect him as a leader

For Planned Parenthood, preventive health care and pay equity for women

Will get millionaires to pay higher taxes and

pay their

fair share

Will protect Medicare and Social Security from cuts

Passed Affordable Health Care Act for all

His jobs plan for American energy, auto efficiency, infrastructure and more teachers

Brought America through the economic crisis and needs more time

Rescued U.S. auto industry

#1 reason people voted for Obama – brought us through economic crisis

Economic

ActionSlide20

20

Women’s Narrative a Leading Reason to Support President among Unmarried WomenNow let me read you a list of reasons to support Barack Obama. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Barack Obama?TotalRAEUnmarried WomenBrought America through the economic crisis and needs more time404034Passed Affordable Health Care Act for all

30

27

23

Took out Osama bin Laden and ended wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

27

32

24

For Planned Parenthood, preventive health care and pay equity for women

26

23

30

Will protect Medicare and Social Security from cuts

262730

Respect him as a leader

21

21

23

His jobs plan for American energy, auto efficiency, infrastructure and more teachers

21

23

23

Stood up for minorities and equal rights, like the Dream Act

19

20

21

Will get millionaires to pay higher taxes and pay fair share

18

19

19Rescued U.S. auto industry13109Could not vote for Romney

10

1113Slide21

21

Now let me read you a list reasons to support Mitt Romney. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Mitt Romney?Economic plansLeadership qualities

Government

and spending

Successful businessman who knows how to manage and create

jobs

Worked with both Democrats and Republicans

Plan to expand offshore oil drilling, coal, and natural gas on federal lands

Compassionate and religious man

I don't want four more years of Barack Obama

Will repeal

Obamacare

Plan to cut taxes across the board

Will tackle reform of Medicare and Social Security

Will protect small businesses from taxes and regulation

Plan to cut spending and reduce national debt

Ending culture of dependency by cutting food stamps and welfare

Romney vote from jobs and economic plans, as well as cutting spendingSlide22

22

Let me read you a list of doubts about Barack Obama. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Barack Obama?Weakened

America

Government and Spending

Support for abortion rights

Cut Medicare by 700 billion dollars to pay for a health reform plan no one wanted

America less respected under Obama

Increased deficit and size of government

Paid off union supporters in the auto bailout and failed clean-energy projects

Bailed out big banks while doing nothing to help homeowners

Obamacare

Failed to change Washington and break gridlock

Hurt small businesses with taxes and regulations

His economic plans failed

Anti-Obama Vote Driven by Concern with Growing Deficit and Size of Government

America would not be the same if Obama had second term

Women

Economy

GridlockSlide23

Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors

23Let me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney?

For rich and out of touch

Threats to Social

Insurance

Leadership Qualities

His statement that he doesn't care about the "47 percent"

Being

against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women

Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington

Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep troops in Afghanistan

Changed positions so often we don't know what he believes

For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash

Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy

Would repeal

Obamacare

Voted against Romney because out-of-touch and for the rich above all

With the rich and out of

touch

with average people

Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital

Foreign

Policy

WomenSlide24

24

Women’s Narrative Hurts Romney Among Unmarried WomenLet me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney?TotalRAEUnmarried WomenBeing against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women272733Changed positions so often we don't know what he believes

30

28

29

His statement that he doesn't care about the "47 percent"

27

31

33

With the rich and out of touch with average people

28

32

35

Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors

242528Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy

20

20

18

Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital

19

14

11

For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash

17

19

22

Would repeal

Obamacare

16

16

19Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington151513Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep troops in Afghanistan

14

17

11Slide25

25

Agenda Moving ForwardNow that Barack Obama has won another term in office and we have a Republican Congress, which two or three of the following do you believe should be the first priority of Congress and the President:TotalRAEUnmarried WomenInvest in education, including hiring 100,000 more teachers, more Pell Grants for college and investing in early childhood education.334137

Protect Social Security and Medicare from significant cuts33

34

36

Support a grand bargain to reduce the deficit where Democrats agree to cuts in spending and Republicans agree to tax increases for the wealthy

30

27

27

Invest in an "all of the above" energy strategy that exploits domestic oil, gas and coal, but also expands new, clean energy like wind, solar and bio-fuels.

29

24

25

Pass a new jobs bill that increases exports and rebuilds roads, bridges and economic infrastructure

252114

Crack down on companies that pay women LESS money if they perform THE SAME job as their male colleagues

18

23

29

Raise taxes on top earners to help reduce the deficit and pay for important programs.

12

13

14

Fully implement the health care reform law

12

13

15

Protect Planned Parenthood and women's health care choices, including the right to choose to have an abortion.

14

18

21Protect programs for the vulnerable, including food stamps and Medicaid121315Slide26

EUROPEAN HEADQUARTERS

405 Carrington House6 Hertford StreetLondon, UK W1J 7SUT: +44.(0).207.096.5070F: +44.(0).207.096.5068

WORLD HEADQUARTERS

10 G Street, NE

Suite 500

Washington, DC 20002

T: 202.478.8300

F: 202.478.8301

LATIN AMERICAN HEADQUARTERS

Cabrera 6060, 7D

C1414 BHN

Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina

T: +54.11.4772.0813

www.greenbergresearch.com | www.gqrr.comSlide27

Findings from Election Eve surveys in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Virginia

Celinda Lake, Joshua Ulibarri, and Cornelia TreptowLake Research PartnersWashington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066Slide28

MethodologyLake Research Partners designed and administered these surveys, which were conducted by telephone using professional

interviewers November 4-6, 2012. The surveys reached registered voters who were likely to vote or voted in the November 6, 2012 general election.The margin of error for each of the total samples is approximately +/-4.0 percentage points and larger for the sub-groups (surveys ranged in sample size from 607 to 620). Most of the data has been slightly weighted by gender, age, race, and party identification to ensure a comprehensive representation of likely voters in the specific state.Due to rounding, the data may appear different by a point on overall numbers compared to final results on Election Day. Additionally, all reported data are the results from only those voters who disclosed who they voted for.28Slide29

OverviewThe Marriage Gap: The marriage gap was pivotal this year. The focus has been on the gender gap, but that surface look obscures what is really happening in American politics. At best, in OH, WA and VA married women split their vote. If unmarried women had done the same it would have left the elections to be decided by men. This year, among the three states polled, the marriage gap was 35 points in VA, 33 points in OH, and 29 points in WI. The RAE gap ranged from 67 points (VA) to 36 points (WI).

The Enthusiasm Gap: For weeks leading up to the election a major question was whether groups that historically voted for Republicans would be more enthusiastic than groups that have of late voted for Democrats. In almost every state there was little to no enthusiasm gap between unmarried women and married women or the RAE and the non-RAE. The Issues: Jobs and the economy was the dominant issue for virtually all demographic groups. Still, while married women and the non-RAE focused heavily on jobs, unmarried women and other members of the RAE displayed a larger issue agenda this year that includes retirement issues like Social Security and Medicare, and education and health care.29Slide30

OhioSlide31

Among all voters, Obama won Ohio by 2 points.

31In the race for President will you /did you vote for:

[RANDOMIZE:] _Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

+2Slide32

Though Obama wins women overall, it is unmarried women who drive this support with more than six in ten voting for him. Married women tip toward Romney.

32+11

+5

+28

+8

All Women

All

Men

Unmarried Women

Married Women

In the race for President will you /did you vote for:

[RANDOMIZE:]

_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?

[

IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

Marriage Gap

33 pointsSlide33

The RAE and its subgroups break for Obama by larger margins than non-RAE groups vote for Romney, most notably, more than nine in ten African Americans vote for Obama. Young voters also went heavily for the President.

33+35

+88

+4

+23

RAE

Non-RAE

Age <30

Age 30+

+18

+25

White

African American

In the race for President will you /did you vote for:

[RANDOMIZE:]

_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?

[

IF UNDECIDED

:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

RAE Gap

58 pointsSlide34

Senator Sherrod Brown won reelection by four points in a highly contested and negative race.

34

In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for [RANDOMIZE:] _Republican Josh Mandel, _Democrat Sherrod Brown, Independent Candidate or someone else? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

+4Slide35

Brown’s vote amongst women and his subsequent advantage with that group is propelled by the support of unmarried women. In this case married women split their vote, but if they had not, it would have left the balance of the race in the hands of male voters.

35+14

+2

+26

+4

All Women

All

Men

Unmarried Women

Married Women

In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for

[RANDOMIZE:]

_Republican Josh Mandel, _Democrat Sherrod Brown

, Independent

Candidate or someone else? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

Marriage Gap

28 pointsSlide36

Brown’s support levels among RAE groups is lower than those Obama saw. Still, he dominated among those groups. Younger voters were especially good for the Senator while older voters split their vote.

36+36

+86

+0

+18

RAE

Non-RAE

Age <30

Age 30+

+12

+28

White

African American

In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for

[RANDOMIZE:]

_Republican Josh Mandel, _Democrat Sherrod Brown

, Independent

Candidate or someone else?

[

IF UNDECIDED

:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

RAE Gap

54 pointsSlide37

Importantly, there was little to no enthusiasm gap this year between married women and unmarried women, and the RAE and non-RAE.

37Darker colors used to indicate greater intensity. Were you more or less interested in the November 6th election compared to elections in the past or was there no difference to you? (IF MORE/LESS INTERESTED ASK): Is that much more/less or somewhat more/less?

Much/Somewhat MoreSlide38

VirginiaSlide39

Obama won the pivotal state of Virginia by two points. His strength here expanded his options for victory while it was practically a must-win for Romney.

39+2

In the race for President will you /did you vote for:

[RANDOMIZE:]

_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?

[

IF UNDECIDED

:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean? Slide40

The marriage gap in Virginia was 35 points. Married women went for Romney, but unmarried women went for Obama by almost a two to one margin.

40+8

+4

+31

+6

All Women

All

Men

Unmarried Women

Married Women

In the race for President will you /did you vote for:

[RANDOMIZE:]

_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?

[

IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

Marriage Gap

35 pointsSlide41

As was the case in Ohio, Obama wins more than 90% of the African American vote. Also of note, Romney’s margin with white voters is quite large, but the pivotal Obama advantage among the RAE provided the winning distance.

41+37

+94

+4

+30

RAE

Non-RAE

Age <30

Age 30+

+28

+23

White

African American

In the race for President will you /did you vote for:

[RANDOMIZE:]

_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?

[

IF UNDECIDED

:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

RAE Gap

67 pointsSlide42

Former Governor Tim Kaine won the most expensive senate race in the country by four points over former Senator George Allen.

42

In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for [RANDOMIZE:] _Republican George Allen, _Democrat Tim Kaine, Independent Candidate or someone else? [IF UNDECIDED

:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

+4Slide43

Kaine won because he won among women by more than he lost among men. But he won among women because he dominated among unmarried women while he lost by two points among married women.

43+12

+2

+36

+5

All Women

All

Men

Unmarried Women

Married Women

In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for

[RANDOMIZE:]

_Republican George Allen, _Democrat Tim

Kaine

, Independent Candidate or someone else? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

Marriage Gap

38 pointsSlide44

Kaine receives large margins across RAE groups, while Allen only just pulls out a majority among older voters. Allen did win big among white voters, but it was not enough to sustain him against the Kaine onslaught with the RAE.

44+36

+84

+2

+26

RAE

Non-RAE

Age <30

Age 30+

+24

+28

White

African American

In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for

[RANDOMIZE:]

_Republican Josh Mandel, _Democrat Sherrod Brown

, Independent

Candidate or someone else?

[

IF UNDECIDED

:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

RAE Gap

62 pointsSlide45

The RAE and the non-RAE were equally

interested in this year’s election, with half of their voters much more interested than in previous years. Romney’s hopes for winning Virginia were anchored on an enthusiasm gap that never materialized. 45Much/Somewhat MoreDarker colors used to indicate greater intensity.

Were you more or less interested in the November 6th election compared to elections in the past or was there no difference to you? (IF MORE/LESS INTERESTED ASK): Is that much more/less or somewhat more/less?Slide46

WisconsinSlide47

In his biggest win among the four states, Obama won Wisconsin by five points.

47+4

In the race for President will you /did you vote for:

[RANDOMIZE:]

_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?

[

IF UNDECIDED

:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean? Slide48

Unmarried women comprised almost a quarter of the vote in Wisconsin, the highest of the tested states, and they voted heavily for Obama. He held his own with married women, but had that tie materialized overall among women, Romney would have won the state.

48+14

+1

+30

+5

All Women

All

Men

Unmarried Women

Married Women

In the race for President will you /did you vote for:

[RANDOMIZE:]

_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?

[

IF UNDECIDED

:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

Marriage Gap

29 pointsSlide49

The RAE overall went heavily for the President and gave him an advantage of 26 points, while non-RAE tipped to Romney but by just 10 points.

49+26

+1

+18

+10

RAE

Non-RAE

Age <30

Age 30+

In the race for President will you /did you vote for:

[RANDOMIZE:]

_Republican Mitt Romney, _Democrat Barack Obama, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?

[

IF UNDECIDED

:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

RAE Gap

36 pointsSlide50

Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin won the Wisconsin Senate seat by two points over former 4-term Governor Tommy Thompson. Baldwin becomes the first openly gay U.S. Senator.

50

In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for [RANDOMIZE:] _Republican George Allen, _Democrat Tim Kaine, Independent Candidate or someone else? [IF UNDECIDED:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

+4Slide51

Baldwin would have lost the race if unmarried women voted as married women did. Married women split their vote between Baldwin and Thompson. Unmarried women, however, went for Baldwin by 31 points .

51+14

+0

+31

+6

All Women

All

Men

Unmarried Women

Married Women

In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for

[RANDOMIZE:]

_Republican George Allen, _Democrat Tim

Kaine

, Independent

Candidate or someone else?

[

IF UNDECIDED

:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

Marriage Gap

31 pointsSlide52

Baldwin lost the non-RAE vote but was able to dominate the RAE vote by 26 points, which is the same vote the President received. Because Thompson did slightly better among the non-RAE than Romney did,

the gap here was larger than in the presidential race.52+26

+0

+17

+12

RAE

Non-RAE

Age <30

Age 30+

In the election for U.S. Senate, will/did you vote for

[RANDOMIZE:]

_Republican George Allen, _Democrat Tim

Kaine

, Independent

Candidate or someone else?

[

IF UNDECIDED

:] Well, if you had to decide today and couldn’t be undecided, toward which candidate would you lean?

RAE Gap - 38 pointsSlide53

There was no enthusiasm gap this year between those who split their vote between the candidates

and those who went more heavily for Obama. Similar levels of married and unmarried women said they were much more interested this year.53Much/Somewhat MoreDarker colors used to indicate greater intensity.

Were you more or less interested in the November 6th election compared to elections in the past or was there no difference to you? (IF MORE/LESS INTERESTED ASK): Is that much more/less or somewhat more/less?Slide54

Celinda Lake

clake@lakeresearch.comJoshua Ulibarrijulibarri@lakeresearch.comCornelia Treptowctreptow@lakeresearch.com

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