Chapter 10 Political News Polls and the Presidential Campaign 2018 Taylor amp Francis Horse Race and StrategyBased News News media cover presidential politics as if it were a game a sporting event a horse race ID: 782938
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Slide1
The Dynamics of Political CommunicationChapter 10 Political News, Polls, and the Presidential Campaign
© 2018 Taylor & Francis
Slide2Horse Race and Strategy-Based NewsNews media cover presidential politics as if it were a game, a sporting event, a horse race.
Why? Some explanations:Horse race stories emphasize conflictPolls provide a patina of scientific responsibility to confer credibility
Horse race stories are easy to cover
Polls offer tangible evidence of how candidates are doing, which is reasonable for journalists to cover
Voters follow and prefer strategically framed poll-dominated news
Perhaps the election is a horse race
© 2018 Taylor & Francis
Slide3Horse Race Coverage in Primary Election News: 1988–2016
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016Horse race49%55%56%78%77%71%64%63%Policy issues16%72%44%22%18%14%10%26%
Focus of coverage (percentage of stories)*
*Stories coded could include horse race and a policy focus, neither, or another category; thus the numbers do not add up to 100%.
What trends emerge from this table? How does horse race coverage make you feel about democracy and government?
© 2018 Taylor & Francis
Slide4The science of Election PollsA poll is “any political sample survey of the electorate conducted by the media, politicians, or political interest groups that aims for a relatively quick and somewhat cursory tally of the public’s political opinions and preferences” (
Traugott & Lavrakas, 2008, p. 191)A sample is a scientifically selected subset of a larger population
Well conducted scientific polls can provide accurate information and provide mechanism for citizen feedback to leaders, but …
Polls have imperfections:
They focus on likely voters, but that’s difficult to estimate
Social desirability effects influence what people say
Non-response bias is a problem
Polls can fail to be predictive because of unexpected events
© 2018 Taylor & Francis
Slide5Major News Media StorylinesNarratives or
storylines are broad frames, influenced by journalistic, professional and economic factors, that shape campaign news reportingMedia have six key narratives:Candidate schemaFront-runnerLosing ground
Bandwagon
Electability
Exceeding expectations
© 2018 Taylor & Francis
Slide6Candidate Schema NarrativesReporters develop mental frameworks or schema to organize information about candidatesOnce they decide a schema fits a candidate, they invoke this in news stories
Examples:Reagan as “the Great Communicator”Gore as a “serial exaggerator”Bush as “dumb”H. Clinton as “secretive”
© 2018 Taylor & Francis
Slide7Front-runner StorylineNews initially gives considerable coverage to the front-running candidate because of poll numbersOver time, positive press is replaced by negative coverage as reporters desire to inform the public about the front-runner’s flaws
Trajectory of press positivity
© 2018 Taylor & Francis
Slide8Losing Ground StorylineCoverage of a leading candidate gets more negative as support declinesPress coverage frequently exaggerates the decline in support
Trajectory of press positivity
© 2018 Taylor & Francis
Slide9Bandwagon StorylineWhen a candidate’s poll ratings or nomination victories increase sharply, news stories increase in favorability
Trajectory of press positivity
© 2018 Taylor & Francis
Slide10Electability and Exceeding Expectations StorylinesElectability storylineCandidates are framed by their likelihood of winning the nomination
Press play up particular candidates’ supposedly small chances of gaining their party’s nominationExceeding expectations storylineCandidates are favorably evaluated if they perform better than expected or…
Negatively assessed if they did worse than anticipated
Note: In all of these storylines, candidate viability is the major determinant of news favorability
Although Bernie Sanders’ trajectory was more positive than expected, the mainstream news never adopted a “bandwagon” or “exceeds expectations” storyline for him. At the same time, social media coverage of “Bernie” was overwhelmingly positive. What accounts for the difference?
© 2018 Taylor & Francis
Slide11Explaining Trump Vs. Clinton Campaign Coverage: Press Bias?
Favorability of Trump’s Press Coverage in the Early 2016 Campaign
© 2018 Taylor & Francis
Slide12Explaining Trump Vs. Clinton Campaign Coverage: Press Bias?
© 2018 Taylor & Francis
Slide13Why did Trump Dominate the 2016 News Cycle?Trump received substantially more mentions than candidates from both parties during the pre-primary period
Trump captured the equivalent of $55 million of free advertising on major media outlets, 1.5 times that of his closest Republican rivalMedia may have focused on him more because:
Novel & dramatic candidate
Personally captivating
A known celebrity
Attracted large crowds
Attracted a distinctive group of voters
Exceeded expectations
Star persona brought in viewers when news media was otherwise in financial decline© 2018 Taylor & Francis
Slide14Patterns of CoverageCoverage of Trump got more negative over the course of the campaign in the wake of scandals and poor debate performanceClinton coverage was more negative in the pre-primary period and got more positive over time
Partisan bias doesn’t account for this pattern of coverageLiberal critics argue news made false equivalence between Trump and Clinton even though Trump lied 9 times more often
Which traditional storylines do you see emerging from the patterns of coverage for Trump and for Clinton?
Slide15The Issues QuandaryPolitical journalists traditionally neglect issuesBy minimizing issue coverage, news does little to help voters understand complex problems facing the nation
Horse race coverage drowns out issue coverageIssue coverage is frequently limited to short soundbitesVoters could be ignorant of issues that directly affect them as a consequenceJournalism avoids covering issues in depth because it would require journalists to comment on the intellectual quality of a candidate’s viewpoint – this could raise flags of perceived bias
Slide16ConclusionsNews covers elections primarily as a horse race and strategic gamePre-election polls are a key component of horse race news
Political news is best understood by prevailing journalistic storylinesThese narratives can force the facts to fit journalists’ preconceived schemasControversy continues over whether news over-covered Trump and exaggerated Clinton’s faults
The overwhelmingly negative tone of press coverage is a broader concern
There are good and bad effects of negative coverage
The press fails to provide sufficient coverage of policy issues
News is imperfect, but it does cover campaigns thoroughly and endlessly