Celinda Lake - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Celinda LakeApril 21st, 2016Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066

Energy, Environment, and the Electorate Slide2

THE MOOD OF THE ELECTORATESlide3

Early primary wins make Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump the frontrunners of each of their respective parties, and both candidates enjoy leads over their nearest competitors in delegates.

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Clinton:

1,930 delegates

Sanders: 1,189 delegates

2,383 needed to win

Source: CBS News Poll, conducted 4/8-4/12

Trump: 845 delegates

Cruz: 559 delegates

Kasich: 147 delegates

1,237 needed to winSlide4

Hillary Clinton leads the pack with the total number of popular votes received, followed by Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.

Source: RealClearPolitics, 4/20/16Slide5

Source:

Quinnipiac University

poll of

1,451 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. I

ncludes 652 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 635 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.

Hillary Clinton is the preferred candidate of women, younger voters, college educated voters and non-white voters in a general election matchup. Trump wins older voters over the age of 65 and white voters. While he also wins with men, Clinton performs much better among men than Trump does among women. Independents are split between the two candidates.

33Slide6

Source:

Quinnipiac University

poll of

1,451 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. I

ncludes 652 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 635 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.

Republicans and voters over the age of 65 are the only major categories of voters in which Trump out-polls Sanders.

These numbers show not only that Democrats have a strong edge over Republicans in November in a broad swath of voters, but also lays waste to the view that Sanders is “unelectable.”

34Slide7

Source: Washington Post-ABC News Poll of 1,000 adults nationwide. Conducted March 3-6, 2016. MOE = +/- 3.5% AND CNN ORC Poll of

While voters are split on whom they trust more on the economy, Clinton is

more trusted on terrorism,

immigration,

and

on who would better handle an international crisis

. 

Clinton is also trusted more on foreign policy than Sanders or any of the GOP candidates. She beats Trump by wide margins on foreign policy issues.

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ECONOMY

TERRORISM

IMMIGRATION

INTERNATIONAL CRISISSlide8

Trump voters stand out for their pessimism about the

direction of the country and their pronounced economic anxiety.

Supporters of Trump, Clinton, and Sanders share the belief that the nation’s economic system favors the rich.

How the voters view major 2016 issues

Source: Pew Research Center poll conducted March 17-27

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NATIONAL MOOD: ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENTSlide10

Source: “Acceptance of Global Warming Among Americans Reaches Highest Level Since 2008”, National Surveys on Energy and Environment, October 2015

An acceptance of global warming is now the

majority attitude

, with more Americans (70%) indicating a belief in evidence of global warming than at any point since 2008. A record low number (16%) of Americans indicate that there is no evidence of global warming. Slide11

Source: “Widespread Public Support for Renewable Energy Mandates Despite Proposed Rollbacks”, National Surveys on Energy and Environment, June 2015

As the American electorate grows increasingly concerned with rising global temperatures, public support for energy industry regulations is on the

rise.

74% of Americans believe that state governments should require a set portion of all electricity to come from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power.

This support holds steady across race, income, education level, religion, political, and region of the country,

and has been shown to be strongly linked to the understanding that average global temperatures are getting warmer.Slide12

Source: “Public support for regulation of power plant emissions under the Clean Power Plan”, National Surveys on Energy and Environment, January 2015

The majority of Americans back government regulation of greenhouse gases emitted by new and existing power plants,

consistent across party affiliation

– Democrats, Republicans, and Independents all indicate support for federal and state government-mandated reductions.

OVERALL

DEMOCRATS

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

REPUBLICANS

INDEPENDENTS

INDEPENDENTSSlide13

Source: “Public support for regulation of power plant emissions under the Clean Power Plan”, National Surveys on Energy and Environment, January 2015

Americans have clear preferences on how the government should reduce power plant emissions. In large numbers, they support

1) Requiring a set portion of all electricity to come from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar

, and

2) Requiring increased energy efficiency standards for new homes and appliances.

They are less enthusiastic about increasing taxes on fossil fuel and cap and trade.

Majority SUPPORT

Majority SUPPORT

Majority OPPOSE

Plurality

OPPOSESlide14

Source: Gallup’s 2016 En

vironment survey, conducted March 2-6, 2016.

Americans are also showing

an increasingly clear opposition to hydraulic fracturing

(fracking) as a mode of oil production. In 2015, they were evenly split between favoring and opposing the cheap but environmentally risky practice. One year later, in the face of growing environmental concerns such as earthquakes, fracking is opposed by the majority of Americans.

Note: “Don’t know/no opinion” responses not shown. Slide15

THE IMPACT OF GAS PRICESON PUBLIC OPINIONSlide16

As the average price of gas drops, Americans’ approval of the oil and gas industry rises. While the majority of Americans still express suspicion towards the oil and gas industry, approval ratings are at their highest point in over 13 years – 34%. There is a historic correlation between gas prices and Americans’ view of oil and gas companies, with high prices often corresponding with low approval.

Source: “Americans’ Views of Oil and Gas Industry Improving”

, Gallup, August 24, 2016. Slide17

Source: Gallup’s 2016 En

vironment survey, conducted March 2-6, 2016.

Americans paying lower gas prices are less concerned about an energy shortage in the U.S. than at any point in history – only 31% believe that the US is likely to face a shortage in the next 5 years.

Previously recorded high levels of concern about an energy shortage have corresponded with high oil prices, as in 2008 and 2011. Fewer Americans are concerned about the availability of affordable energy, as well. Slide18

Source: Gallup’s 2016 En

vironment survey, conducted March 2-6.

With concerns about energy availability lessened, Americans are freer to consider the environmental impacts of energy production and consumption.

For the first time since 1994, the majority of Americans (54%) oppose nuclear energy

– a significant increase since 2015. Republicans are more likely than Democrats or Independents to favor the use of nuclear energy, though Republican support has also declined significantly in recent years. Slide19

Source: Stephen

Ansolabehere

and David M.

Konisky

, published by the Boston Globe as “Energy: What Americans Really Want”

.

On the whole,

Americans understand some

, but not all

, of the impacts of their energy sources.

People correctly consider wind and solar energy to be cleaner than

coal

or oil,

and they also believe they are cheaper.

American Perceptions of Safety and Cost

of Energy SourcesSlide20

WHERE THE CANDIDATES STAND

Install 50 million solar panels by the end of first termWithin 10 years of taking office, US will generate enough renewable energy to power every home in the country

Modernize infrastructure with investments in hydropower and the electric grid

Shift to 100% reliance on renewable fuels, tax carbonStop drilling for fossil fuels

Support production tax credits for wind and solar powerDoes not believe in climate change, refers to it as “a hoax” Very few substantive comments about energy policy, except asserting that wind turbines kill a lot of birds

Refers to climate change as “pseudo-scientific theory”

Calls for an end to energy subsidiesSlide21

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY

LakeResearch.com

202.776.9066

Celinda Lake

clake@lakeresearch.com