March 14 2018 Alternative Future Scenario Analysis TransAction is the multimodal longrange transportation plan for Northern Virginia Seeks to understand the sensitivity of project performance under a variety of alternative future scenarios ID: 761617
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March 14, 2018 Alternative Future Scenario Analysis
TransAction is the multimodal long-range transportation plan for Northern VirginiaSeeks to understand the sensitivity of project performance under a variety of alternative future scenarios Not attempting to accurately predict the ‘correct’ future or identify a preferred future scenario 2 TransAction and Scenario Analysis
3 Future Scenarios: Elements and Trends Technology Elements and Behavioral Trends: Connected and Automated vehicles Shared travel Demographic characteristics (e.g., millennials, boomers) Development patterns Activity patterns (e.g., telecommuting, internet shopping)Information / management technologies Policy and legal evolutionEconomic factors Freight and goods movement
Scenario A Technology makes driving easier Travel Impacts Less congestion More efficient vehicle travel More first/last mile trip and short trip optionsSignificant evolution in vehicle and/or system information and management technologies https://www.its.dot.gov/communications/image_gallery/image26.htm Autonomous vehicles Shared travel alternatives (e.g., Uber/Lyft) Traveler Information (e.g., Google/Waze maps and real time information about routing and congestion)System management technologies (e.g., dynamic response to congestion and weather conditions)Source: U.S. DOT Highway Travel Freeway/expressway capacity +50%, speed limitsMajor arterial capacity +15%, speeds +5%Value of drive time -50%, parking cost -50%, terminal time -50% Transit Access Max walk to Rail 1.5 miles and express bus park-n-ride 1.0 mile Walk speed 5 mph, walk > 0.5 miles = +5 minute wait + vehicle trip Station parking capacity +50%, parking cost -50% Park-n-ride drive cost +50%, time value -50%, wait time +5 minutes Model Assumptions Long distance trips +5%, short urban trips +25%
Highway TravelUrban speed -5 mph, turn penalty +1 minute, terminal time +100%Auto operating cost +100%, urban parking cost +100% Transit AccessMax walk to Rail 1.5 miles, walk speed 10 mphWalk access > 0.75 miles = +5 minutes wait time, +vehicle tripKiss-n-ride drive cost +50%, time value -50%, wait time +5 minutesUrban Pedestrian Environment Factor +35% Model Assumptions Work trips -25%, non-work trips +10%, Peak spreading: 25% +/-60 minutes Scenario B Changes in travel behaviorSignificant changes in trip makingMillennials/Boomers have a preference for urban living and mixed use activity centers – resident life style changesWorkers are granted more flexible work hours and telecommuting optionsIncreased use of internet shopping and home deliveriesSignificant increase in fuel prices or travel costs Less vehicle travel Shorter trips Less peak period travel More first/last mile and short trip options More delivery vehicles Urban Living + Mixed Use Centers Telecommuting Options Increase in Fuel + Travel Costs Source: flickr.com Source: pexels.com Source: flickr.com http://www.elpadvisors.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Urban-Life.jpg Travel Impacts
Direct Impacts of Alternative Future Scenarios Daily MeasuresStandard 2040 Scenario A Scenario B Motorized Trips 10,462,00010,847,0003.7%10,063,000 -3.8% Transit Mode Share 9.8% 10.3%3.2%9.9%1.0%Transit Boardings 1,359,000 1,382,000 8.3% 1,144,000 -15.8% Person-Miles of Travel 125,379,000 127,819,000 1.9% 116,615,000 -7.0% Person-Hours of Travel 5,811,000 4,305,000 -25.9% 4,515,000 -22.3% Person-Hours of Delay 3,030,000 1,324,000 -56.3% 1,932,135 -36.2% Service Hours of Crowded Transit 20,100 13,800 -31.3% 12,900 -35.8%
2040 Scenario A Baseline Performance 2040 Scenario A Baseline compared to 2040 Baseline Standard Future Forecast Scenario A Difference
2040 Scenario B Baseline Performance 2040 Scenario B Baseline compared to 2040 Baseline Standard Future Forecast Scenario B Difference
Key FindingsProjects in the TransAction Plan provide improvements in all future scenarios Alternative Future Scenarios do not always show as much improvement as the standard future forecast Some problems are addressed by assumptions in Alternative Future Scenarios Indicates some level of investment obsolescence for certain projectsGoodBetter Good Better X Standard Future Forecast Alternative Future Scenario Forecast Improvements Caused by TransAction Plan
Alternate assumptions about the future could have major impacts on transportation conditions Alternate Future Scenarios could lead to different investment strategies Most projects will still be good investments under both Alternate Futures but the planning process should: Reassess trends periodically as new information becomes available Consider each project’s sensitivity to Alternative futures Consider if encouraging an Alternative Future would be a good regional investment priority 10 Alternative Future Findings
Further Information http://nvtatransaction.org/