Presented by The Franklin Partnership LLP October 2015 About The Franklin Partnership Bipartisan Washington DCbased government relations firm 80 years combined experience Representing metalworking industry since 2003 ID: 511471
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Update from Washington, D.C.
Presented by:The Franklin Partnership, LLPOctober 2015Slide2
About The Franklin Partnership
Bi-partisan Washington, D.C.-based government relations firm80 years combined experienceRepresenting metalworking industry since 2003
Clients include: Manufacturing associations
Defense manufacturersHospitalsResearch institutionsMunicipalitiesNon-profitsSlide3
Be Safe While in Hawaii…
68,000 New Government Hospital Billing CodesWalked into lamppost, subsequent encounter
Sucked into jet engine, subsequent encounter
Burn due to water-skis catching on fireOther contact with cow, subsequent encounterProblems in relationship with in-lawsSlide4
The Speaker’s Chair:
A Job Nobody Wanted…Slide5
A Difficult Fall: Procrastination as Usual
Congress continuously allowed key laws to expire or passed short-term patches:Tax Provisions (R&D, 179, Bonus)Highway Trust FundExport-Import BankDebt Ceiling
Federal Government FundingSequestrationSlide6
Expired Tax Provisions – R&D, 179, Bonus
No Comprehensive Tax Reform Until 2017Questions over how to treat pass-throughs remainSome international taxation reform possible
Expired Tax Provisions –
Tax Extenders billR&D Lapsed for 16th TimeBonus Depreciation ExpiredSection 179 Reverted to $25,000House: Make R&D, 179, Bonus Depreciation permanentSenate: Pushing for 2 year extension of all provisionsRetroactive to Jan. 1, 2015 and through Dec. 31, 2016Slide7
Administration Not Slowing Down…
NLRB Ambush Elections – April 2015Workforce Innovation and Opportunities Act – June 2015
Power Plants Greenhouse Gas Rule – June 2015
Heavy Duty Engine/Vehicle Emissions – June 2015NLRB “Joint Employer” for Temps Ruling – August 2015Department of Labor Overtime Rule – October 2015Ground Level Ozone Emissions – October 2015OSHA Electronic Recordkeeping – October 2015Combustible Dust Standards – February 2016Injury Illness Prevention Program (I2P2) – October 2016 Slide8
Power Plants Emissions Rule
32% Carbon Emissions Reduction by 2030 over 2005 Cost of Regulation on You:EPA says: electricity will increase 6-12% annuallyIndustry says: electricity increases of at least 20%
If you spend $200,000 annually on electricity, then expect:
6% Increase = $12,000 12% Increase = $24,000 20% Increase = $40,000If material supplier spends $250m/year on electricity, then: 6% Increase = $15,000,000 12% Increase = $30,000,000 20% Increase = $50,000,000Slide9
2016 – GOP Likely Retains House
2016 – Republicans Battle to Hold Senate2016 – Race for the White House IntensifiesPolitical UpdateSlide10
CA-25: Steve Knight (R) – Lean R
Dems: Santa Clarita Water Board member Maria Gutzeit, Agua Dulce Councilman Lou VinceIL-10: Robert Dold (R) – Toss Up
Dems: Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rodkin Rotering
, former U.S. Rep. Brad SchneiderMI-07: Tim Walberg (R) – Lean RDem: state Rep. Gretchen DriskellMI-10: OPEN, Candice Miller (R) Retiring – Solid RReps.: Shelby Township Treasurer Michael Flynn, businessman/frmr. MI-04 candidate Paul Mitchell, state Sen. Phil Pavlov, frmr. State Sen. Alan Sanborn, state Sen. Jack Brandenburg, state Rep. Todd Courser, frmr. State Rep. Leon Drolet, state Rep. Andrea LaFontaineKey RacesSlide11
MO Gov: OPEN, Jay Nixon (D) Term-Limited – Toss Up
Dem: AG Chris KosterReps.: Businessman & '12 Sen. cand. John Brunner, state Sen. Bob Dixon, ret. Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, frmr. st
. Hse.
Spkr., frmr. U.S. Atty. Catherine Hanaway, Lt. Gov. Peter KinderMN-02: OPEN, John Kline (R) Retiring – Toss UpDems: St. Jude Medical VP Angela Craig, physician Mary LawrenceReps.: Tea Party activist David Gerson, frmr. state Sen. John Howe, conservative radio host Jason Lewis, frmr. state Rep. Pam Myhra, frmr. state Rep. Kurt Bills, frmr. state Sen. Ted DaleyNE-02: Brad Ashford (D) – Toss UpReps. Don “Bits” Bacon retired Air Force Brig. Gen., frmr State Sen. Chip Maxwell, aerospace engineer Cory Van BlarcomKey RacesSlide12
NC Gov: Pat McCrory (R) –
Toss UpDems: AG Roy Cooper, frmr. st. Rep. Kenneth Spaulding, st. Sen. Josh SteinInd: Pizza deliveryman, '14 Libertarian Sen.
cand. activist Sean Haugh
NJ-05: Scott Garrett (R) – Lean RDems: Paramus mayor Richard LaBarbiera, Microsoft advertising executive Josh Gottheimer PA-08 : Mike Fitzpatrick (R) Retiring – Toss UpDems: Scientist/'14 candidate Shaughnessy Naughton, state Rep. Steve SantarsieroReps.: '08 nominee Tom Manion, frmr. Bucks Co. commissioner Andy Warren, state Rep. Scott Petri, Bucks Co. Commission Chair Robert LougheryKey RacesSlide13
2016: 24 Republicans Up vs. 10 Democrats
Dems Need 4-5 Seats for Control
U.S. Senate Today…54R – 46DSlide14
Mark Kirk (R-IL)Ron Johnson (R-WI)
Pat Toomey (R-PA)Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)Rob Portman (R-OH)Harry Reid (D-NV) - retiringMarco Rubio (R-FL) –
retiring; Depends on primaries
Michael Bennet (D-CO)Richard Burr (R-NC)Rand Paul (R-KY)Roy Blunt (R-MO)Dan Coats (R-IN) – retiring; Depends on GOP primaryJohnny Isakson (R-GA)Barbara Boxer (D-CA) – retiringLisa Murkowski (R-AK)Most Competitive Senate RacesSlide15
Illinois: Mark Kirk (R) – Toss Up
Kirk – 41% vs. Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D) – 45%Pennsylvania: Pat Toomey (R) – Lean RToomey – 45% vs. frmr. U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak (D) – 35%Toomey – 52% vs. Allentown Mayor Ed
Pawlowski (D) – 28%Toomey – 44% vs. Gov. Wolf Chief of Staff Kate
McGinty (D) – 32%Ohio: Rob Portman (R) – Lean RPortman – 43% vs. frmr. Gov. Ted Strickland (D) – 43.5%Portman – 48% vs. Cincy City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld (D) – 28%Wisconsin: Ron Johnson (R) – Toss UpJohnson – 39% vs. frmr. U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold (D) – 50%Key Senate RacesSlide16
2016:
Race for the
White HouseSlide17
Republican Convention: Cleveland July 2016Republican Nominee Needs 1,236 Delegates
March 1st “SEC” Primary: 624 Delegates March 5 (KS, KY, LA, HI, MS, MI): 248 March 15 (OH, FL, IL, MO): 367Ted Cruz’s Delegates Strategy Includes… American Samoa (9), D.C. (19), Guam (9), Northern Marianas (9), Puerto Rico (23) , Virgin Islands (9)
Pathway to Republican Nomination Slide18Slide19
USA TODAY
Candidates vs. The New York Times CandidatesSource: The Boston GlobeSlide20
Republican PrimaryTrump 27%, Carson 21%, Rubio 9%, Cruz 8%, Bush 7%, Fiorina
6%, Huckabee 4%, Paul 3%, Christie 3%, Kasich 2%, Santorum 0.5%, Graham 0.5%, Jindal 0.3%, Hillary 46% vs. Trump 43%Hillary 43% vs. Carson 48%Hillary 45% vs. Rubio 44%
Hillary 49% vs. Cruz 41%Hillary 43% vs. Bush 45%Hillary 43% vs.
Fiorina 44%Hillary 47% vs. Kasich 39%How they Measure Up…Slide21
In past 6 Presidential Elections…19 States Voted Dem = 242 Electoral Votes
13 States Voted Rep.= 102 Electoral Votes270 Electoral Votes to Win Presidency
In at least 4 of past 6 Presidential Elections…
Dems won states for 281 Electoral VotesReps. won states for 219 Electoral VotesSlide22
How You Can Become Involved
Become involved with your trade associationActive from your deskAttend town hall mtgsAttend fundraisersAnnual Manufacturing Day
Support association’s PAC and Advocacy funds
Sign PAC Approval FormsParticipate in Media OutreachTravel To WashingtonSlide23
Questions?
The Franklin Partnership, LLP
omar@franklinpartnership.com
@mfglobbyist